1# 眼泪迷信
library(locfit)
x=c(1980,1981,1982,1983,1984,1985,1986,1987,1988,1989,1990,1991,1992,1993,1994,1995,1996,1997,1998,1999,2000,2001,2002,2003,2004,2005,2006,2007,2008,2009);
y=c(6,2.4,1.9,1.5,2.8,9.3,6.5,7.3,18.8,18,3.1,6.4,14.7,24.1,17.1,8.3,2.8,-0.8,-1.4,0.4,0.7,-0.8,1.2,3.9,1.8,1.5,4.8,5.9,-0.7,6);
result=locfit(y~x,alpha=c(0,1.5),deg=1);
e=residuals(result)
plot(result);