2010年2月中国房地产行业研究报告-经管之家官网！

【出版时间及名称】：2010年2月中国房地产行业研究报告
【作者】：德意志银行
【文件格式】：PDF
【页数】：40
【目录或简介】：
2 February 2010
China Property
Monthly market intelligence
for December 2009
Danny Bao, CFA
Research Analyst
(+86) 21 3896 2839
danny.bao@db.com
Ling Xu
Research Analyst
(+86) 21 3896 2834
ling.xu@db.com
164msqm GFA sales and 140msqm new construction starts hit record high
Both GFA sales and new construction starts reached record levels in December.
ASP trended lower due to greater contributions from Tier-II and small cities, while
sales growth decelerated. We expect volume to decline 10% in 2010 to
767msqm, 11% higher than in 2007. We expect rising home prices, a less
supportive housing policy, and potential rate hikes to contain housing demand in
large cities this year. We prefer non-residential short-term plays like Franshion and
Mingfa given the government's policy to curb home prices in China.
Deutsche Bank AG/Hong Kong
All prices are those current at the end of the previous trading session unless otherwise indicated. Prices are sourced from local
exchanges via Reuters, Bloomberg and other vendors. Data is sourced from Deutsche Bank and subject companies. Deutsche
Bank does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. Thus, investors should be aware that the firm
may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single
factor in making their investment decision. Independent, third-party research (IR) on certain companies covered by DBSI's research
is available to customers of DBSI in the United States at no cost. Customers can access IR at
http://gm.db.com/IndependentResearch or by calling 1-877-208-6300. DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS ARE
LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1. MICA(P) 106/05/2009
Market Update
Table of contents
Selling prices .................................................... Page 02
Transaction volume .......................................... Page 04
New supply ...................................................... Page 11
Local residential markets.................................. Page 14
Investment property......................................... Page 23
Land supply & demand .................................... Page 31
Policy orientation .............................................. Page 32
Monthly performance....................................... Page 35
Valuation comparison ....................................... Page 36
Top picks
China Resources Land (1109.HK),HKD14.92 Sell
Agile Property (3383.HK),HKD10.14 Sell
Mingfa Group (0846.HK),HKD2.20 Buy
Franshion Properties (0817.HK),HKD2.61 Buy
Glorious Property (0845.HK),HKD3.03 Buy
China & HK NAV discount spread
-80%
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Jan-
07
Apr-
07
Jul-
07
Oct-
07
Jan-
08
Apr-
08
Jul-
08
Oct-
08
Jan-
09
Apr-
09
Jul-
09
Oct-
09
Jan-
10
China HongKong
Index performance 29/1/2010
Index 1m% 3m% 12m%
HSI -8.0 -7.5 51.5
HSCEI -10.1 -10.0 61.2
HSP -12.8 -13.4 40.9
Coverage 1/2/2010
Company Last price TP Upside
COLI (0688.HK, Hold) 13.94 15.00 7.60
Vanke-B (200002.SZ, Buy) 7.80 12.30 57.69
CR Land (1109.HK, Sell) 14.92 12.00 -19.57
CG (2007.HK, Hold) 2.53 3.00 18.58
R&F (2777.HK, Hold) 11.34 9.00 -20.63
Agile (3383.HK, Sell) 10.14 8.40 -17.16
SOL (0272.HK, Hold) 3.77 3.30 -12.47
Greentown (3900.HK, Hold) 9.55 4.45 -53.40
Mingfa (0846.HK, Buy) 2.20 3.25 47.73
Glorious (0845.HK, Buy) 3.03 4.95 -63.37
Forte (2337.HK, Buy) 2.03 2.90 42.86
DB Access Asia Conference Singapore
DB Access Asia Conference
Singapore 10-13 May 2010
Global Markets Research Company
2009 GFA sales rose 52.6% YoY; ASP rose 22.4% YoY to Rmb4,474/sm
Total residential GFA sales in China for 2009 reached 852.9msqm. Volume for 14
major cities accounted for 27% of total sales in China. These 14 cities saw
average YoY volume growth of 70.3%, outperforming small cities. Chongqing,
Shanghai, Chengdu, Beijing and Suzhou were the largest local markets in terms of
volume. Strong sales volume drove home prices higher, with ASP in China
reaching a new record. Major cities in the Yangtze River Delta, such as Shanghai,
Nanjing, and Hangzhou, saw the highest ASP increase, driven by higher
investment demand. We expect investment demand to decline in 2010.
Growth in new construction starts decelerated in December 2009
Total new construction starts of commodity houses in China in the full year 2009
reached 1,154msqm, up 18% YoY. However, new construction starts in large cities
continued to lag the Chinese average, with an average YoY decline of 0.7%. New
construction starts for residential homes in December increased 6.8% MoM and
35% YoY. We expect total new construction starts to increase by 5% YoY in 2010,
due to the new government policy to accelerate supply and to prevent developers
from land hoarding.
Government still determined to curb home prices and reduce speculation
Recent policies call for a 40% minimum down payment for a second mortgage
and a major push to supply welfare and social security housing. We see potential
for an interest rate hike this year, reflecting the government’s intention to manage
inflation expectations. This would also add to the cost of speculative buying. All of
these new policies are mainly targeting speculative demand and market supply.
We expect the government to continue to support mass-market transactions
driven by owner-occupied demand while restraining speculative buying. We
expect the supply shortage to ease after the second quarter this year.
Near-term sector weakness set to continue; we prefer non-residential plays
We believe the government’s current austerity measures will affect short-term
investor sentiment and lead to sector weakness. Our top sells are CR Land and
Agile Property. We believe non-residential plays are generally less sensitive to
policy measures; hence our preference for Mingfa and Franshion. We also like
Vanke B and Glorious Properties on relative valuation grounds. The China property
sector underperformed the benchmark in 2H09, and we expect this trend to
continue in 1Q10. We recommend that investors continue to underweight the
sector.