有关OpenBUGS/R2WinBUGS的小问题求解答-经管之家官网！

大家好，这两天正在尝试用R语言做生存分析，其中需要贝叶斯统计；主要模型是来自文献资料，但是运行过程中反复出现问题，希望大神们帮忙解答，谢谢！
我用了两种方法，载入Library(BRugs)，然后运行如下代码：

1. rm(list=ls(all=TRUE))
   
2. library(BRugs)
   
3. # Specify the model in BUGS language, but save it as a string in R:
   
4. modelString = "
   
5. model{
   
6. for (y in 1:N.years.sites){
   
7. for (d in 1:N.days){
   
8. events[d,y] ~ dpois(p[d,y])# raw data is {0/1} for each day
   
9. p[d,y] <- max(p0[d,y],.001) # trick to avoid crashing from low values
   
10. p0[d,y] <- a[d] * risk[d,y]
    
11. risk[d,y] <- exp(beta[1]*temp.cum[d,y] + beta[2]*frost7[d,y] +
    
12. beta[3]*precip7[d,y] ) # risk function that can include any covariates of interest, time-dependent or otherwise
    
13. 
    
14. risk2[d,y] <- min(risk[d,y], 100)
    
15. # events.pred[d,y] <- 1 - pow(exp(-sum(a[1 : d])), risk2[d,y] )
    
16. }}
    
17. 
    
18. for (d in 1:N.days){#
    
19. a[d] <- p1/ (1+exp((2.2/p3) * (p2-d))) # baseline function used in this study (could be modeled otherwise for different applications, or left non-parametric)
    
20. 
    
21. #p1 <- 1 # max
    
22. #p2 <- 200 # point of inflection
    
23. #p3 <- 20 # time between .1 and .5 and .5 and .9
    
24. 
    
25. }
    
26. p1~dlnorm(p1.sp, p1.tau)
    
27. p3~dlnorm(p3.sp, p3.tau)
    
28. 
    
29. p2~dlnorm(p2.sp, p2.tau)
    
30. 
    
31. 
    
32. ## Priors (BUGS normal distributions use precision instead of variance, where precision = 1/variance)
    
33. p1.sp ~ dnorm(0,.001)
    
34. p2.sp ~ dnorm(3,.001)
    
35. p3.sp ~ dnorm(50,.001)
    
36. 
    
37. p1.tau ~ dgamma(.01,.01)
    
38. p2.tau ~ dgamma(.01,.01)
    
39. p3.tau ~ dgamma(.01,.01)
    
40. 
    
41. # Overall species baseline curve
    
42. for (d in 1:N.days){ a.sp[d] <- p1.sp/ (1+exp((2.2/p3.sp) * (p2.sp-d))) }
    
43. 
    
44. 
    
45. for(pp in 1:n.beta){
    
46. beta[pp] ~ dnorm(beta0[pp], beta.tau[pp])
    
47. }
    
48. 
    
49. for(pp in 1:n.beta){
    
50. beta0[pp]~ dnorm(0,.001)
    
51. beta.tau[pp] <- pow(beta.sigma[pp], -2)
    
52. beta.sigma[pp] ~ dunif(0,10)
    
53. }
    
54. 
    
55. } # end model
    
56. "
    
57. .temp = file("model.txt","w") ; writeLines(modelString,con=.temp) ; close(.temp)
    
58. modelCheck( "model.txt" )
    
59. # THE DATA.
    
60. 
    
61. N.days = 250
    
62. N.years.sites = 5
    
63. n.beta = 3
    
64. response.day = 250
    
65. datas<-read.csv("E:/R/survival/data.csv")
    
66. events<-matrix(nrow=250,ncol=5)
    
67. frost7<-matrix(nrow=250,ncol=5)
    
68. precip7<-matrix(nrow=250,ncol=5)
    
69. temp.cum<-matrix(nrow=250,ncol=5)
    
70. for (i in 1:5) {events[,i]<-datas[,i]}
    
71. for (i in 1:5) {frost7[,i]<-datas[,i+5]}
    
72. for (i in 1:5) {precip7[,i]<-datas[,i+10]}
    
73. for (i in 1:5) {temp.cum[,i]<-datas[,i+15]}
    
74. dataList = list(
    
75. events = events,
    
76. frost7 = frost7,
    
77. precip7 = precip7,
    
78. temp.cum = temp.cum,
    
79. N.days = N.days,
    
80. n.beta = n.beta,
    
81. N.years.sites= N.years.sites
    
82. # response.day = response.day
    
83. )
    
84. nChains = 3
    
85. modelData( bugsData( dataList ) )
    
86. modelCompile( numChains = nChains )# BRugs tells BUGS to compile the model.
    
87. modelGenInits()
    
88. burninSteps = 1000
    
89. modelUpdate( burninSteps )

复制代码以上，前面model check通过，load data通过，model compile通过，但是问题在于，每次到了modelGenInits() 这一步，就会提示：
Rstudio提示：
Error in handleRes(res) : NA
In addition: Warning message:
running command '"d:/Program Files/R/R-3.1.3patched/library/BRugs/exec/BugsHelper.exe" "C:/Users/TONGZ~1/AppData/Local/Temp/RtmpwPtl0g" "C:/Users/TONGZ~1/AppData/Local/Temp/RtmpwPtl0g/trash" "file18382a0663b.bug" "C:/Users/TONGZ~1/AppData/Local/Temp/RtmpwPtl0g/cmds.txt" "1"' had status 144
实在不明白怎么回事，找到了 Bugshelper.exe 双击打开提示
后来我在Openbugs 中找到libOpenBUGS.dll（重新安装了几次，该文件应当没有损坏。。），放到Bugshelper.exe旁边，又出现了第一张图的提示……
反复如此，用R和Rstudio都是一样的……
之后，我只好放弃Openbugs，改用R2WinBUGS
模型仍然是以上模型，读入的数据也是以上数据，最后运行bugs:
bugs.sim<-bugs(data,inits=NULL,parameters,noyear,n.chains=3,n.iter=40000,n.burnin=1000,bugs.directory="D:/winbugs14/WinBUGS14/",working.directory="c:/Bugs",debug=TRUE)
log信息如下：
display(log)
check(c:/Bugs/noyear.bug.txt)
model is syntactically correct
data(c:/Bugs/data.txt)
undefined variable
compile(3)
gen.inits()
command #Bugs:gen.inits cannot be executed (is greyed out)
thin.updater(117)
update(9)
command #Bugs:update cannot be executed (is greyed out)
set(beta)
command #Bugs:set cannot be executed (is greyed out)
set(p1)
command #Bugs:set cannot be executed (is greyed out)
set(p2)
command #Bugs:set cannot be executed (is greyed out)
set(p3)
command #Bugs:set cannot be executed (is greyed out)
set(deviance)
command #Bugs:set cannot be executed (is greyed out)
dic.set()
command #Bugs:dic.set cannot be executed (is greyed out)
update(334)
command #Bugs:update cannot be executed (is greyed out)
coda(*,c:/Bugs/coda)
command #Bugs:coda cannot be executed (is greyed out)
stats(*)
command #Bugs:stats cannot be executed (is greyed out)
dic.stats()
DIC
history(*,c:/Bugs/history.odc)
command #Bugs:history cannot be executed (is greyed out)
save(c:/Bugs/log.odc)
save(c:/Bugs/log.txt)
看这个意思好像是有未定义的变量。。？可是之前在BRugs中应该已经通过了啊。。
总是。。两种办法都卡住了。。。希望高手们看一下帮帮忙撒~~
十分感谢！！！！！