摩根斯坦利——亚洲宏观经济分析（42页）——2009年2月-经管之家官网！

Asia Macro Pulse

Asia Pacific

Asia Macro Pulse

Assessing Deflation Risks in AxJ

Contributors to this Issue:

Morgan Stanley Asia (Singapore) Pte.+

Chetan Ahya

Chetan.Ahya@morganstanley.com

Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+

Malcolm Wood

Malcolm.Wood@morganstanley.com

Viktor Hjort

Viktor.Hjort@morganstanley.com

Linan Liu

Linan.Liu@morganstanley.com

Qing Wang

Qing.Wang@morganstanley.com

Jerry Lou

Jerry.Lou@@morganstanley.com

Morgan Stanley India Company Private Limited+

Ridham Desai

Ridham.Desai@morganstanley.com

Although a persistent deflation scenario is not our base case forecast, today we examine the deflation risks in the AXJ region and market implications in the event of a deflation scare materializing. Linan Liu and Viktor Hjort discuss what is already discounted by the bond and credit markets and how these markets responded in the previous cycle when CPI decelerated sharply. We also compare which economies in the region are at maximum risk.

- Chetan Ahya & Malcolm Wood

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