瑞士银行：中国宏观经济研究报告2009年11月-经管之家官网！

Overview and summary
Data from the past couple of months show that:
• Real GDP grew by 8.9% y/y in Q309, driven by strong domestic investment demand growth. We upgraded
our 2009 and 2010 GDP forecasts to 8.4% and 9.0%, respectively.
• Fixed asset investment (FAI) in infrastructure and government-related sectors remained strong, but exportrelated
investment was still weak. Property investment and construction have rebounded strongly, while
retail sales remained resilient.
• While y/y CPI inflation stayed negative, inflation expectation and asset prices have increased. Monetary
policy has turned from expansionary to accommodative, but not serious tightening.
Domestic demand-led recovery and forecast upgrade. GDP grew by 8.9 % y/y in Q3 2009, and we estimate that it
translates into a q/q annualized growth of 10-10.5%. Fixed investment contributed 7.3 percentage points to the 7.7%
GDP growth in the first 3 quarters of the year. While the government stimulus-related investment continued to power
ahead in Q3 2009, real estate investment has rebounded sharply as well, helping to push up non-government investment.
Consumption has been resilient and contributed 4 percentage points to growth. External demand remains weak and net
exports have subtracted 3.6 percentage points from GDP growth. We upgrade our China GDP forecast to 8.4%, and
9.0% for 2009 and 2010, respectively, based on stronger than expected domestic demand growth in Q309.
Drivers of growth next year. In 2010, we do not expect any withdrawal of government stimulus, but expect the
contribution of stimulus-related fixed investment to GDP growth to drop significantly. We see a modest global
recovery to turn export growth from a sharp decline this year to a single-digit growth next year. We think overall
growth in 2010 can be sustained by: (i) a substantial turnaround in the contribution of net exports, even though exports
are likely to grow only modestly; (ii) a sustained solid growth in property investment and construction, partially
offsetting the drop in growth of infrastructure investment; and (iii) a modest acceleration in the growth of household
consumption as unemployment drops and income growth picks up.
Macro policy shifts focus. With its growth target looking attainable, the government adjusted its macro policy
objectives to add “managing inflation expectation” and “adjusting economic structure” to the paramount growth
targeting. We expect no withdrawal of the fiscal stimulus in 2010 but also no major new investment programs, with any
new additional spending likely modest and focused more on promoting consumption. While CPI inflation is expected
to be moderate, we see monetary policy facing increasing challenge in an environment of rising FX inflows and
inflexible nominal exchange rate. We expect the government to set the M2 and credit growth target for 2010 at about
16-17%, sharply down from this year’s 30%, as monetary policy turns from crisis mode to normalcy, and as rising
corporate earnings reduce demand for bank financing. Some modest interest hikes will be used to help manage inflation
expectations, and reserve requirement may be hiked to help sterilized persistent FX inflows. The RMB/USD exchange
rate is expected to be kept steady until Q2 2010, when a gradual appreciation of the RMB resumes.
Outlook in the coming year. Our baseline scenario of a robust real growth, modest inflation, ample liquidity and
continued capital inflows sets favorable conditions for the asset markets. In the coming months, setting the credit
growth target and pushing out structural reforms will be the key policies to watch. Other things to expect are: (1) a
slowdown of bank lending growth with continued fine-tuning of macro policy, including more strict enforcement by
regulators on existing rules on lending and property, but no rate hike until Q2 2010; (2) continued rebound in housing
construction activity in the coming quarters, even as measures to curb price increase get adopted; (3) exports recovering
and trade surplus remaining sizable; (4) asset market being supported by improving corporate earnings but weighed by
increasing supply of new shares; (5) stable RMB/USD rate for another 6-9 months before the gradual appreciation
resumes, while the government encourages outward investment as a mean to diversify its foreign asset holdings; (6)
possible push to reform resources and energy prices, and to increase wage income.
Overview and summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2
UBS activity indicators . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3
Business indicators . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4
Inflation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5
Money and credit . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6
Base money and sterilization . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7
Fixed asset investment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8
Industrial production . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9
Industrial inventories . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10
Industrial profits . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11
Consumption and retail . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13
Property and construction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14
Trade . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15
FDI . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17
FX reserves and capital flows . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18
Exchange rate . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19
Financial markets . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20
Data tables . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21