英文标题:
《Elicitability and backtesting: Perspectives for banking regulation》
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作者:
Natalia Nolde and Johanna F. Ziegel
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最新提交年份:
2017
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英文摘要:
Conditional forecasts of risk measures play an important role in internal risk management of financial institutions as well as in regulatory capital calculations. In order to assess forecasting performance of a risk measurement procedure, risk measure forecasts are compared to the realized financial losses over a period of time and a statistical test of correctness of the procedure is conducted. This process is known as backtesting. Such traditional backtests are concerned with assessing some optimality property of a set of risk measure estimates. However, they are not suited to compare different risk estimation procedures. We investigate the proposal of comparative backtests, which are better suited for method comparisons on the basis of forecasting accuracy, but necessitate an elicitable risk measure. We argue that supplementing traditional backtests with comparative backtests will enhance the existing trading book regulatory framework for banks by providing the correct incentive for accuracy of risk measure forecasts. In addition, the comparative backtesting framework could be used by banks internally as well as by researchers to guide selection of forecasting methods. The discussion focuses on three risk measures, Value-at-Risk, expected shortfall and expectiles, and is supported by a simulation study and data analysis.
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中文摘要:
风险度量的条件预测在金融机构的内部风险管理以及监管资本计算中发挥着重要作用。为了评估风险度量程序的预测性能,将风险度量预测与一段时间内实现的财务损失进行比较,并对程序的正确性进行统计测试。此过程称为回溯测试。这种传统的回溯测试涉及评估一组风险度量估计的某些最优性。然而,他们不适合比较不同的风险评估程序。我们研究了比较回溯测试的建议,这种方法更适合在预测准确性的基础上进行方法比较,但需要一个可引出的风险度量。我们认为,用比较回溯测试补充传统的回溯测试,将通过为风险度量预测的准确性提供正确的激励,增强银行现有的交易账簿监管框架。此外,银行内部以及研究人员可以使用比较后验框架来指导预测方法的选择。讨论的重点是三个风险度量,即风险价值、预期缺口和预期值,并得到模拟研究和数据分析的支持。
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分类信息:
一级分类:Quantitative Finance 数量金融学
二级分类:Risk Management 风险管理
分类描述:Measurement and management of financial risks in trading, banking, insurance, corporate and other applications
衡量和管理贸易、银行、保险、企业和其他应用中的金融风险
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一级分类:Statistics 统计学
二级分类:Applications 应用程序
分类描述:Biology, Education, Epidemiology, Engineering, Environmental Sciences, Medical, Physical Sciences, Quality Control, Social Sciences
生物学,教育学,流行病学,工程学,环境科学,医学,物理科学,质量控制,社会科学
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