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Citigroup 花旗：亚洲股市 深度研究：
重回大盘股，价值投资和资金流动性
72页 08.20 20 August 2007 | 72 pages
The Asia Investigator A Bounce to Reposition Towards Large-cap, Value and Cashflow
147621.pdf
(1.26 MB, 需要: 12 个论坛币)
Asia ex Jp: Fed cut will be a short-term positive for markets post an 18% decline —
Short-term, markets look very oversold and are trading on a 14-day RSI of 26. Our
focus is on North Asia, HK, Korea and Taiwan; we are underweight ASEAN. Our
focus on is on large- over mid-/small-caps and on cashflow themes over pure asset
plays. We believe the investment landscape from 2003 to July 2007 will not look
the same going forward. Page 3
Asia ex Jp: Export prices from North Asia are outperforming those of ASEAN —
Export prices from North Asia (NIC) fell by 1% yoy in July in US$ terms. Export
prices from ASEAN, on the other hand fell by 2.8% yoy in US$ terms. This marks
the fifth month of outperformance by North Asia and is a sharp reversal from 2006,
when ASEAN export prices outperformed those of North Asia. Page 27
Singapore: 63% of our Singapore universe meets 2Q estimates — Of note, 28%
outperformed our expectations, compared with 24% in 1Q07, and only 9%
underperformed (vs. 17% in 1Q07). All banks surpassed our expectations, with
OCBC the best performer (57% of consensus) thanks to a sharp margin pickup.
Loan growth was up 13-18% yoy. UOB’s loans grew 18% yoy, led by mortgage
growth. Page 37
Taiwan: The market fared better than other regional markets due to low QFII
weightings — On balance, the share markets in which QFIIs are underweight were
spared the worst of the selling since the markets recently peaked on July 25th. Still,
Taiwan’s decline of 18% so far is in line with the regional average. Page 42
Fun with flows: Outflows from offshore Asian funds were just $74m in the past two
weeks — Net outflows were $73.5m in the first week of August followed by just
$0.1m in the second week. In early March when Asian equities were hit by the
unwinding of Yen carry trade, a total of $4.5bn was redeemed in three weeks.
Outflows amid the May/June market corrections in 2006 were $4.9bn, which lasted
for six weeks. The current market falls have caught investors by surprise and they
have yet to react. Page 49
Sentiment: With regional markets correcting 18% from the July peak, investor
appetite has completely reversed. In terms of our sentiment indicators, those that
are down the most since late July are Taiwan and Singapore. That said, however,
Singapore risk-love remains too high for us to feel comfortable. In contrast,
Malaysia is back to the level last seen in mid 2003. Page 50
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