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| http://www.ecocn.org/forum.php?mod=viewthread&tid=193190&extra=page%3D1 Banks and Interest Rates 银行和利率 Administer with care 管理者需当心 Low interest rates are squeezing banks’ profits. Higher ones may do the same 低利率会压榨银行利润，高利率可能同样如此 Jun 29th 2013 |From the print edition 1 BE CAREFUL what you wish for. Bankers in the rich world have moaned incessantly over the past few years about how low interest rates are squeezing the life out of the banking system. Now that long-term interest rates have risen in anticipation of the Federal Reserve’s “tapering” of asset purchases, and changes in short-term rates seem closer than they once did, some are wondering whether higher rates are all they are cracked up to be. Rising rates may restore banks’ profitability but too sudden an increase may damage their health. 请银行家们谨慎制定利率政策。最近几年发达国家的银行家们不断地抱怨低利率扼杀了银行系统。现在，由于预期美联储会“逐步缩减”资产购买，长期利率已经上升，短期利率的变化似乎也比以往更早。一些人正在质疑更高的利率是否真像人们所吹捧的那样有效。提高利率可能会恢复银行的利润，但是利率飙升可能也会破坏银行的健康。 2 Banks usually make most of their money on the spread, or difference, between the rate of interest they pay savers and the one they charge borrowers. This spread has narrowed as policy rates in rich countries have fallen, because loans have become cheaper but rates on deposits can go no lower than zero. In America, for instance, the average “net interest margin” at banks supervised by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation has fallen to its lowest level since 2006 (itself a 16-year low for small banks). Meagre profits have encouraged some banks to make riskier loans or buy riskier assets in a hunt for yield. 通常银行通过利差来赚钱，即银行给储户的利率和收取贷款者的利率之差。政策利率的下调导致发达国家的利差减少，因为银行贷款收益降低而储蓄的利率不能低于零。在美国，由联邦存款保险公司（FDIC） 统计的银行平均“净利息收益率” 已下降到了自2006年以来的最低水平 (也是小型银行16年来的最低值). 微薄的利润驱使一些银行提供更具风险的贷款或购买更具风险的资产，以追求收益。 3 An increase in interest rates would fatten net interest margins at those banks where the rates they charge borrowers rise more quickly than their own cost of funding. SNL Financial, a data firm, reckons that big American banks would gain from higher rates as, on average, a greater share of their assets than of their liabilities would reprice within a year. One exception is Citigroup, which could see its interest margin squeezed. Banks in Japan stand to gain from higher rates, too, according to Nomura. Higher rates may also be good for investment banks, which should benefit from increased trading and volatility in bonds if yields keep rising. 对于那些贷款利率增速快于自身融资成本增速的银行，利率上升会增加其净利息收益率。SNL Financial是一家数据公司，它估计美国的大型银行可以从高利率中获利，因为在一年中平均来说，大型银行相较于负债，有更多的资产被重新定价。不过花旗集团的净利息收益率减少了。野村控股公司 表示日本的银行从更高的利率中获利。更高的利率可能对投资银行有利，因为如果收益率持续增加，它可以从大幅提高的成交量和债券价格波动中获利。 4 Elsewhere the outlook is less sanguine. The Bank of England, releasing its annual report on financial stability on June 26th, fretted that margins at British banks may at first be compressed as rates rise. In Germany small savings banks are also at risk because they offer fixed-rate loans while taking variable-rate deposits. A similar area of vulnerability in America may be in credit unions, a type of financial co-operative, which have also taken on interest-rate risk through fixed-rate lending funded by variable-rate deposits. 然而在其他地方情况就不太乐观了。英格兰银行于6月26日发布其金融稳定性年度报告，担忧在利率提高后，英国的银行收益率可能会首先下降。德国的小型储蓄银行和美国的信用合作社（一种金融合作机构）也有同样的利率风险，因为它们都是通过吸纳可变利率存款来支持固定利率贷款。  5 Interest margins change relatively slowly. The immediate threat to banks is a fall in the market value of assets that banks hold. As yields of government bonds and other fixed-income securities rise, their prices fall. Because the amounts of outstanding debt are so large, the effects can be big. In its latest annual report the Bank for International Settlements, the Basel-based bank for central banks, reckons that a hypothetical three-percentage-point increase in yields across all bond maturities could result in losses to all holders of government bonds equivalent to 15-35% of GDP in countries such as France, Italy, Japan and Britain (see chart). 利息收益率变化相对较慢。利率飙升对银行的直接威胁是银行资产的市场价值缩水。当政府债券和其它固定收益证券的收益率增加时，他们的价格下降了。（原因？）因为未偿债务数额巨大，其影响甚广。位于巴塞尔为各央行服务的国际清算银行估计，假设所有期限的债券收益率均提高3个百分点，将给所有政府债券持有人造成损失，而这一损失相当于法国、意大利、日本和英国这样的国家15-35%的国内生产总值 (见图)。 6 Here again the effect on banks would vary widely from country to country. Government bonds account for less than 2% of the assets held by British banks, compared with about 25% of assets in the case of Japanese banks. But simply looking at holdings of government bonds probably understates the risk to banks of an upward lurch in yields, since they hold many other fixed-income assets that would also fall in value. Some 40% of British banks’ assets would have to be revalued if interest rates were to rise abruptly, according to the Bank of England. Furthermore, banks may be indirectly exposed to losses on fixed-income securities through other channels—loans to clients that are big holders of these instruments, say, or changes in the value of securities that are held as collateral. 正如利率飙升对不同的银行影响不同一样，银行资产市场价值缩水的幅度也不尽相同。英国银行持有的政府债券仅占其资产的2%，而日本的银行达到了25%。但是，仅仅关注政府债券可能低估了利率陡升给银行带来的风险，因为银行还持有很多可能会缩水的固定收益资产。英格兰银行表示，如果利率突然上升，那么英国银行40%的资产将要重新估值。此外，银行可能通过其它渠道间接承受固定收益证券产品的损失-----银行放贷的部分客户大量持有这种产品，并且将这些价值大幅缩水的证券作为向银行贷款的抵押物。 7 A third risk to banks from higher rates is that more of their customers will struggle to repay their loans. Quantifying this risk is difficult since loan losses are influenced not just by interest rates but also by economic growth and employment, both of which would need to improve for central bankers to dial back their interventions. Even so, there are worrying signs. In Britain almost a fifth of secured loans have gone to households that have less than ￡200 ($307) a month left after paying essential costs, according to the Bank of England. Higher rates could push many into default. The dilemma for policymakers is that keeping rates low for long is dangerous. So is letting them rise too quickly. 更高利率带来的第三种风险是更多的银行客户在偿还贷款时感到困难。量化这种风险是很难的，因为贷款损失不仅受利率影响，还受经济增长和就业因素制约，而这两个因素需要央行行长通过调整干预政策来改进。即使这样，我们也看到了一些令人担忧的迹象。根据英格兰银行统计，在英国，约有五分之一的担保贷款流向了每月收入少于200英镑（合307美元）的家庭（扣除基本生活费后）。更高的利率可能会迫使很多人违约。政策制定者面对一个两难的局面：无论保持低利率过久还是提高利率过快都是有风险的。 From the print edition: Finance and economics 注： 1. 美国法律要求国民银行、联邦储备体系会员银行必须参加存款保险，不是联邦储备体系成员的州立银行和其他金融机构可自愿参加保险。目前，新成立的银行都必须投保。实际上，美国几乎所有的银行都参加了保险。联邦存款保险公司的资本来源于向投保银行收取的保险费。 2. Net Interstate Margin，NIM，是利息净收入与总生息资产平均余额的比率，数字愈高，反映银行获利能力愈高。 3. 野村控股（NOMURA SECURITIES）是日本四大证券公司之首，也是全世界最大证券公司之一。 |
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