我国通胀的真正根源（精华）

是 否 +2 论坛币

k人 参与回答

经管之家送您一份

应届毕业生专属福利!

求职就业群

赵安豆老师微信：zhaoandou666

经管之家联合CDA

送您一个全额奖学金名额~ !

立即领取

感谢您参与论坛问题回答

经管之家送您两个论坛币！

+2 论坛币

<p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 15.75pt; mso-char-indent-count: 1.5;"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">食用油涨价、肉食品涨价、汽油柴油涨价、天然气涨价，新商品房继续涨价……这些涨价，已经体现在国家统计局</span><chsdate wst="on" isrocdate="False" islunardate="False" day="13" month="11" year="2007"></chsdate><chsdate></chsdate><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">11</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">月</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">13</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">日</span><chsdate></chsdate><chsdate></chsdate><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">发布的数字中：</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">10</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">月份，居民消费价格总水平比去年同月上涨</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">6.5%</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">，其中，食品价格上涨</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">17.6%</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">，非食品价格上涨</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">1.1%</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">；消费品价格上涨</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">7.8%</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">，服务项目价格上涨</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">2.3%</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">。由此，价格上涨指数创造了近</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">10</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">年来的新高，中国老百姓也面临着前所未有的生活压力。</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 15.75pt; mso-char-indent-count: 1.5;"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">今年以来</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">,</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">以食品价格上涨推动为主的结构性通胀特征明显</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">,</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">其具体原因表现为</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">:</font></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 15.75pt; mso-char-indent-count: 1.5;"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">一：国际市场价格的带动。由于石油价格持续上涨，美国等国家大规模开发生物能源，对玉米、大豆等粮食需求量大幅增加。这导致国际市场粮价大幅度上涨，进而拉动了国内粮食价格上升，并影响到以粮食为原料的食用油、肉、禽、蛋、奶等主要副食品价格。</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman"><br/>   </font></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 10.5pt; mso-char-indent-count: 1.0;"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">二：成本推动。近十年来，我国主要农产品一直低位运行，稻谷、小麦、玉米、大豆、油菜籽、生猪等主要农产品现在的价格，多数低于十年前的水平，只有个别品种略高于十年前水平。但与此同时，种植养殖成本随着生产资料价格和农村劳动力价格的上涨而大幅上升，所以，目前农产品价格上涨带有明显的恢复性质。</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman"><br/>   </font></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt;"><span lang="EN-US"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"><font face="Times New Roman">  </font></span></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">三：供求结构失衡。由于去年上半年生猪价格跌到谷底，导致生猪存栏下降，去年下半年生猪价格开始进入周期性上涨阶段。部分地区出现的疫情，也加剧了生猪供应的紧张。</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 15.75pt; mso-char-indent-count: 1.5;"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">这三方面原因导致了今年粮食价格的告诉上涨</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">,</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">致使物价呈现结构性上涨的特征</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">,</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">因此有很多人认为这轮通胀是食品推动</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">,</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">不具有长期性</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">,</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">流动性过剩并不是推动这轮通胀的主因</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">!</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">但根据我们的调查研究证明</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">,</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">推动根本原因在于流通性过剩</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">. </font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">食品价格上涨只是一个扳机和导火线</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">.</font></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 15.75pt; mso-char-indent-count: 1.5;"><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">1.</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">根据经济学原理，通胀本质还是货币过多导致的货币贬值，中国国际收支近年来持续双顺差，外汇储备不断攀升，在当前结售汇制度下，央行被迫放出大量的基础货币进行对冲，货币供应量加大；此外，人民币汇率机制改革后，为保持汇率基本稳定，央行需要通过投放人民币以买入外汇，而基础货币投放又以乘数效应扩大广义货币供给，从而导致国内流动性过剩。截至到今年</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">8</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">月底</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">,</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">中国的外汇储备已经超过惊人的</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">1.4</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">万亿</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">,</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">央行被动向市场投放的人民币超过</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">10</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">万亿</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">.{</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">外汇储备的增大通过两个方式</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">.1</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">正常的贸易顺差</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">,2</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">国外热钱非法流入</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">!</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">货币的供应量被迫大幅度增加，首先推高了资产价格的压力，然后慢慢传导到消费类的价格，导致</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">CPI</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">不断走高</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">,</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">食品价格上涨只是一个扳机和导火线</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">.</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">我们可以做个假设</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">,</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">“假设货币供应量、</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">GDP</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">不变，食品价格的上升就会引起其他的商品价格下降。因为通胀率是平均的，已经被货币供应量和</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">GDP</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">决定了</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 15.75pt; mso-char-indent-count: 1.5;"><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt;">2.</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt;">由于我国近几年经济高速发展<span lang="EN-US">,</span>投资需求旺盛<span lang="EN-US">,</span>商业银行房贷欲望强烈<span lang="EN-US">,</span>造成了<span style="COLOR: black;">货币、信贷、投资的增长率居高不下，根据央行数据，截至<span lang="EN-US">9</span>月末，广义货币供应量<span lang="EN-US">M2</span>余额<span lang="EN-US">39.3</span>万亿元<span lang="EN-US">,</span>而这一数据<span lang="EN-US">,</span>在<span lang="EN-US">2001</span>年</span></span><span style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial;">广义货币（</span><span lang="EN-US" style="COLOR: #cc0033; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial;">M2</span><span style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial;">）</span><span style="COLOR: #cc0033; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial;">余额仅</span><span style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial;">为<span lang="EN-US">15</span>．<span lang="EN-US">8</span>万亿<span lang="EN-US">,</span>这比<span lang="EN-US">2001</span>年增长了<span lang="EN-US">2.5</span>倍<span lang="EN-US">,</span>金融货币的过度造成了现在的通胀也就不足为奇<span lang="EN-US">. <p></p></span></span></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 15.75pt; mso-char-indent-count: 1.5;"><span lang="EN-US" style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt;">3.</span><span style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">房价</span><span lang="EN-US" style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt;">.</span><span style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">股价等资产价格近两年来大幅上涨</span><span lang="EN-US" style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt;">,</span><span style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">也成为推动这轮通胀的帮凶</span><span lang="EN-US" style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt;">!</span><span style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">我国的流动性泛滥不但推高了</span><span style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">资产价格</span><span lang="EN-US" style="COLOR: black; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt;"><font face="Times New Roman">,</font></span><span style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">创造了巨量的金融财富</span><span lang="EN-US" style="COLOR: black; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt;"><font face="Times New Roman">,</font></span><span style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">而且也进一步创造了流动性</span><span lang="EN-US" style="COLOR: black; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt;"><font face="Times New Roman">.</font></span><span style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">可以说在一定程度上金融资产就是流动性，因为现在金融市场很发达，金融资产随时可以卖出变成现金。就股市而言，股市市值从</span><span lang="EN-US" style="COLOR: black; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt;"><font face="Times New Roman">1</font></span><span style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">万亿元变成数万亿元，而同时</span><span lang="EN-US" style="COLOR: black; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt;"><font face="Times New Roman">GDP</font></span><span style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">不变</span><span lang="EN-US" style="COLOR: black; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt;"><font face="Times New Roman">,</font></span><span style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">这就意味着创造了流动性。另一方面</span><span lang="EN-US" style="COLOR: black; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt;"><font face="Times New Roman">,</font></span><span style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">资产价格的上涨也推高了其他商品的上涨预期</span><span lang="EN-US" style="COLOR: black; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt;"><font face="Times New Roman">.</font></span><span style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">这两方面的原因都推高了通货膨胀</span><span lang="EN-US" style="COLOR: black; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt;"><font face="Times New Roman">.<p></p></font></span></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 15.75pt; mso-char-indent-count: 1.5;"><font face="Times New Roman"><span lang="EN-US" style="COLOR: black; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt;">4</span><span lang="EN-US">2.2001</span></font><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">年美国发生两件大事：第一是纳斯达克股指大跌，另一个是“</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">9</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">·</span><chmetcnv wst="on" tcsc="0" numbertype="1" negative="False" hasspace="False" sourcevalue="11" unitname="”"></chmetcnv><chmetcnv></chmetcnv><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">11</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">”</span><chmetcnv></chmetcnv><chmetcnv></chmetcnv><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">。为了刺激经济发展，美联储采取了</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">20</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">多次降息的措施，从</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">7%</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">一直降到</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">1%</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">，导致市场出现大量的流动性。与此同时，日本也长时间保持了零利率，欧洲</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">2005</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">年之前都维持</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">2%</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">的低利率。三大经济体全面输出流动性的后果在</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">2004</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">年开始显现出来，国际范围内的原油、黄金等资产价格大幅度上涨。反映国际市场核心原材料商品价格波动的</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">CRB</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">指数已经累计上涨了</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">133%</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">，</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">5</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">年来黄金从</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">260</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">美元／盎司上升至</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">760</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">美元／盎司，不到两年时间，全球玉米</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">(1795,30,1.70%)</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">价格同比已上升</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">86%</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">，棕榈油价格上升</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">46%</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">。由于油价飙涨</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">,</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">大量的玉米被用于制造乙醇</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">,</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">进而推动了国际稻谷、小麦、玉米、大豆等农场品价格的上涨</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">,</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">也推高生猪饲料的价格</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">,</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">提高了养猪成本</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">,</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">最终也点燃了中国结构性通胀的导火线</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">! !</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">所以我们认为经济内外失衡下流动性过剩是导致通胀根源</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">!</font></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 15.75pt; mso-char-indent-count: 1.5;"><span style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">这一轮通货膨胀源于经常项目和资本项目双顺差造成的流动性泛滥</span><span lang="EN-US" style="COLOR: black; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt;"><font face="Times New Roman">,</font></span><span style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">食品价格上涨</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">只是一个扳机和导火线</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">.</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">解决通胀问题要从根源入手</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">,</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">除了要加大粮食供给</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">,</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">进行价格监管等措施之外</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">,</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">还要从根本来解决流动性泛滥</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">,</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">才能最终抑制这轮通胀</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">,</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">防止这轮通胀由结构性通胀向全面性通胀演变</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">.</font></span></p><p></p><p>顺便补充一下，事实上央行人为操控汇率，释放出大量的货币导致了流动性过剩，这事实上就为我国的通胀埋下了伏笔，如果央行能鼓励企业像中国平安，中国人寿这些公司加大对外国资源或者其他企业的的投资，可以对解决通胀起到很好的效果，因为这样企业出口的美元到了银行，银行把钱给想要到外国投资的大企业，不用到央行换取人名币，这样央行就不用过度印发货币，不单可以减少流动性，还减少了人名币升值的压力，本来是企业都把美元换成人名币，现在因为想要美元的人多了，人名币升值的压力就小了，而且可以解决通胀。</p><p>相反加息不是一个好办法，加息只会使更多的热钱流进我国，那样不单企业借不到钱，失业增加，而且更多的热钱流进更加大了人民币升值的压力，出口到时候也回受到影响，进一步造成企业破产，失业增加，那样还不如让人民币在一年之内大幅度升值。当然大幅度升值的结果就是1.5万亿美金大幅度贬值，我们帮美国人减债，还有就是出口下降，出口企业破产增加，失业增加，也不是一个好办法。</p><p>欢迎大家提出更好的建议和办法！！</p>

[此贴子已经被作者于2008-1-9 19:27:20编辑过]

扫码加我 拉你入群

请注明：姓名-公司-职位

以便审核进群资格，未注明则拒绝

分享0 收藏34 回帖

关键词：广义货币供应量 中国国际收支 货币供应量 流动性过剩 结构性通胀 食用油涨价 柴油涨价 服务项目 市场价格 商品房

为什么没人顶？

鼓励一下新人！

多谢版主鼓励！小弟一定再接再励！

写得好,继续加油!!!!

不错，虽然看不懂，也要支持一下

写的象人民日报的文章。

观点３还是有点问题的
股票等资产价格的上升，并不是造成过剩的原因， 相反是过剩导致了资产价格的上升。
举个例子， 股票总值从１万亿上升到３万亿，表面上看，是数字上的增加，但是如果市场上没有足够的资金去接纳，总市值不过是虚的概念，一旦投资者失去信心，从３万亿到一万亿很容易的。
所以，股票价格的上升不过是场外不断进入的资金推高的结果
也就是说流动剩余资金还是来自于外国投机资金，本国存款移动，等等.
从某种程度来说
股票市场吸引了社会的部分资金，减少了社会的流动资金.
对于国家来说，开发更多的金融投资领域，更多的金融投资产品，可以要分散股票市场的金融风险，同时可以吸引部分的社会剩余资金

“经济内外失衡下流动性过剩是导致通胀根源!”

宏观政策的目标之一就是物价稳定，如果物价不稳定了，那是经济内部失衡的一种表现，因此用经济内外失衡解释通货膨胀没有针对性，一是所以经济问题都可以归到经济失衡范围内解释，二是所有国家都面临着经济失衡的问题。

不过楼主整篇文章写得层次清晰，内容丰富，很不错。

好文章，分析得透彻！我頂！