爱尔兰金融行业研究报告2009年3月

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Irish Financials
No Silver Bullet – A Range of Initiatives Needed to Stave
Off Nationalisation
13 March 2009
Analyst(s): John Cantwell +353 1 611 5918 john.cantwell@ncb.ie
Ciaran Callaghan +353 1 611 5876 ciaran.callaghan@ncb.ie
􀂾 The market has been waiting for the Government to come up with a “silver bullet” solution for the solvency and
liquidity challenges of the Irish banks, but it is increasingly obvious that no single initiative will resolve what is the
deepest crisis in the sector and the broader economy in living memory. Indeed the same can be said for efforts by
the UK, US and other countries to deal with their respective situations.
􀂾 We are encouraged by the Minister’s repeated comments that he does not see nationalisation of the banks as
being in the State’s best interest. While temporary nationalisation has its supporters (who point to the Swedish
Government’s very successful execution of such, allied with an effective “bad bank / good bank” strategy in the
early 90’s) we would argue that this is not the best course in the current situation and would be destructive for both
the value of bank franchises and for the efficient governing of the State.
􀂾 In this report we highlight an alternative range of strategies which could be used to boost shareholders’ equity,
repair banks’ balance sheets and breathe life into distressed property and mortgage markets. In the words of the
US Treasury, a full “arsenal” approach is needed to cleanse banks’ balance sheets of problem assets.
Banking Industry Strategies
1) Long Tail Asset Insurance Scheme
2) ICI Type Loss Absorbing Scheme
3) Bad Banks
4) Debt Buyback / Conversion of Debt to Equity
5) Create a Super-Mutual….the ultimate “good” bank
6) Extension of Government Guarantee Scheme
7) Nationalisation, not the panacea
Property Market Strategies
8) Public / Private Distressed Asset Fund
9) First-Time-Buyer Housing Subsidy
10) Rent-To-Buy Scheme backed by the State, Banks and Developers
􀂾 The long-tail asset insurance and loss absorbing schemes have particular merit because they lift capital ratios at
the trough of the cycle. Equity ratios could be further boosted by either repurchasing hybrids or swapping them for
equity. A drawback of the “bad bank” is the immediate crystallisation of losses and knock-on impairment of equity,
although it improves the earnings and fundraising ability of the remaining “good bank”. Combining the retail
banking assets of IL&P, EBS and Irish Nationwide into a “Super–Mutual” building society owned by its account
holders would have many merits, in our view. We consider initiatives, including Tax Credits for first time buyers
and/or a State/ Bank /Developer Rent-to-Buy scheme and a Public / Private property fund, which we believe would
restore the confidence of nervous buyers and kick-start activity in the housing and property markets.
􀂾 The outcome of the current crisis in Irish banking will ultimately depend on the actions of the Government which is,
no doubt, closely watching counterparts around the world. The main message from recent updates from the two
larger Irish banks was that they have seen a sharp and widespread deterioration in economic conditions in their
core markets. We remain cautious on the sector as we see significant risk to our impairment and capital
assumptions and regard the current share prices as options on an outcome that is more “market friendly” than
outright nationalisation.

Contents
Executive Summary 4
Banking Industry Strategies
Long Tail Asset Insurance Scheme 6
ICI Type Loss Absorbing Scheme 8
Bad Banks; Upfront Writedowns Offset the Benefits 10
Debt Buyback / Conversion of Debt to Equity 12
Create a Super-Mutual… the ultimate “good” bank 13
Extension of Government Guarantee Scheme 14
Nationalisation, Not the Panacea 15
Property Market Strategies
Public / Private Distressed Asset Fund 17
First time Buyer Housing Subsidy 18
Rent-to-Buy scheme backed by State, Banks and Developers 20
Irish Economy - Even if necessary adjustments occur, deep recession is likely in 2009 & 2010 21
Outlook for loan growth remains weak 23
Net interest margin attrition set to ease 26
Non-interest income to remain under pressure 27
Expenses need to be cut further in the face of weak revenues 28
Asset quality and loan book concentration 28
Capital 31
Earnings Models
Allied Irish Banks 32
Bank of Ireland 35
Irish Life & Permanent 38

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