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19 June 2008
¥4,700tn green tech market
A guide to global warming
prevention-related companies
Toshiharu Morota, CMA
Research Analyst
(+81) 3 5156-6721
toshiharu.morota@db.com
Yukiko Nagatomo
Research Associate
(+81) 3 5156-6722
yukiko.nagatomo@db.com
Tomonori Ohata
Research Associate
(+81) 3 5156-6342
tomonori.ohata@db.com
Purpose of this report
Deutsche Securities Inc.
All prices are those current at the end of the previous trading session unless otherwise indicated. Prices are sourced from
local exchanges via Reuters, Bloomberg and other vendors. Data is sourced from Deutsche Bank and subject companies.
Deutsche Bank does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. Thus, investors should
be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report.
Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.
Independent, third-party research (IR) on certain companies covered by DBSI's research is available to customers of
DBSI in the United States at no cost. Customers can access this IR at http://gm.db.com, or call 1-877-208-6300 to
request that a copy of the IR be sent to them.
DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS ARE LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1
Catalyst Event
Global Markets Research Company
In its 2008 edition of Energy Technology Perspectives (ETP) from June 6, the
International Energy Agency (IEA) estimates total additional investment of $45trn
(about ¥4,700trn) will be needed between now and 2050 to halve global
greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. ETP 2008 also contains global roadmaps for 17
key advanced energy technologies. This report examines companies related to
these 17 technologies in conjunction with our 3 April 2008 report, 21 innovative
technologies: Stockpicking based on METI's Cool Earth GHG reduction plan.
Halving global GHG emissions by 2050 requires a reduction of 48bn tons
ETP 2008 suggests that halving GHG emissions from the current level by 2050
would require a reduction of 48bn tons going forward. By sector, electric power
would account for 38.1% of this reduction, transportation 26.0%, industry 19.2%,
and household/commercial (buildings, electrical equipment) 17.1%. By key
technologies, carbon capture and storage (CCS) in the electric power and industrial
sectors would account for 19.0% of this reduction, nuclear power generation
5.8%, wind power generation 4.4%, photovoltaics and solar-heated hot water
systems 3.8%, integrated coal gasification combined cycle (IGCC) and coal ultrasupercritical
steam (USCSC) generation 2.9%, and heat pumps 1.7%. As a standalone
technology, CCS is the most significant in terms of reducing CO2 emissions.
Sector breakdown of total additional costs of roughly ¥4,700trn
Of the total additional costs of roughly ¥4,700trn required to halve GHG emissions,
the transportation sector would account for 72.9%, the household sector 14.2%,
and the electric power sector 11.1%. Transportation by itself would absorb most
of the additional investment, as the large-scale decarbonization that will be
required is considered an expensive option. Investment in electric power includes
savings resulting from a reduction in demand for alternative fuels. Excluding these
savings, the sector’s share of additional investment would be higher.
Valuation & Risk
Our preferred valuation metrics for machinery and plant engineering & shipbuilding
stocks are historical P/E, historical P/B, DCF, and EV/EBITDA, in that order. In short,
we basically rely on P/E and P/B since consensus figures are relatively easily to
obtain, and use DCF analysis and EV/EBITDA in cases where the other metrics are
ineffective (see page 7). Risk factors include simultaneous economic slumps in the
developed and emerging economies, further yen appreciation, and rising steel raw
material prices and supply bottlenecks. Plant engineering companies also face
earnings risk from construction delays and cost overruns. However, reversals in
these negatives could also trigger rallies for stocks that already price them in (see
page 7).
(continued from cover page)
Comparison of 17 key advanced energy technologies and 21 innovative technologies
Our 3 April 2008 report outlines the 21 innovative technologies for preventing global warming
selected by METI in its Cool Earth Innovative Technology Plan and features further research
of our own on those expected to make the largest contribution to CO2 reductions. We think
this report, coupled with the additional investment called for in ETP 2008, makes it possible
to identify which companies to invest in. This comparison shows that CCS, nuclear and solar
power generation, IGCC, and heat pumps feature prominently in both METI and IEA’s
estimates.
Technologies in focus and related companies: time-line is a key focus
While we need to keep an eye on order trends for CCS, nuclear power plants, and the like, it
will be some time before such orders are reflected in earnings. Solar power, heat pumps, and
wind power are likely to contribute to earnings relatively quickly. Energy efficiency
improvements in the transportation sector could also have a knock-on effect on railway rolling
stock. Related companies include Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Daikin Industries, and
Kawasaki Heavy Industries.
Table of Contents
Summary and investment opinion................................................... 5
Purpose of this report ...............................................................................................................5
Awareness of global warming has changed since 2006...........................................................5
Focusing on CCS, IGCC, nuclear power, heat pumps...............................................................7
Valuation and risk.............................................................................. 9
Valuation ..................................................................................................................................9
Risk ..........................................................................................................................................9
Global warming: trends and countermeasures ............................ 10
Three truths sound global wakeup call....................................................................................10
Schedule for Toyako Summit, COP, and other environmentrelated
events .................................................................................. 13
Targeting a post-Kyoto agreement at COP15 in 2009.................................................................13
A schedule for the environment through end-2009 ....................................................................13
Key points of “Fukuda Vision” ....................................................... 14
Implications of “Fukuda Vision”..............................................................................................14
Outline of IEA’s Energy Technology Perspectives 2008............... 16
Additional investment of roughly ¥4,700trn, or around 1% of average annual global GDP,
needed by 2050 ......................................................................................................................16
Three scenarios presented: Baseline, ACT, and BLUE............................................................16
Electric power sector accounts for 38% of emissions reduction (BLUE scenario) .................19
17 key advanced energy technologies........................................... 21
Global roadmaps for 17 key advances energy technologies ...................................................21
CCS to play a big role in GHG emissions reduction policies ...................................................23
Comparison with METI's Cool Earth Energy Innovative
Technology Plan .............................................................................. 24
Outline of METI's Cool Earth Energy Innovative Technology Plan ..........................................24
METI’s simulation has large contributions from CCS and nuclear and solar power generation
...............................................................................................................................................24
Focusing on CCS, nuclear power, IGCC, and heat pumps........... 26
On the basis of ETP 2008 and the competitiveness of Japanese companies.........................26
Technologies in focus and related companies ........................................................................26
Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) the largest contributor........ 28
CCS responsible for around 19% of halving of GHG emissions, the largest share.................28
Possibility of demonstration plant orders; full-fledged introduction of emissions trading
needed...................................................................................................................................28
Fukuda Vision highlights photovoltaics ........................................ 32
Photovoltaics/solar power-related technologies responsible for 6.2% of emissions reduction
...............................................................................................................................................32
"Fukuda Vision" calls for sharp increase in solar power...........................................................32
Offshore migration could boost wind power's potential............. 34
Wind power to account for 4.4% of GHG reductions; emerging offshore focus....................34
Europe dominates in wind turbines; MHI targets higher market share...................................35
Building geothermal plants for Iceland ......................................... 37
Solid track record in Indonesia, US, Philippines; over 100 plants worldwide..........................37
Potential in US, China, and India .............................................................................................37
Heat pumps: An effective technology with near-term profit
potential ........................................................................................... 39
28mn high-efficiency water heaters by 2020 versus 2005's 700,000.....................................39
Nikkei heat-pump symposium.................................................................................................39
Focusing on high-speed trains from the standpoint of energy
efficiency improvements................................................................. 41
Electric, plug-in hybrid, and fuel cell vehicles require the largest investment..........................41
Focusing on high-speed trains as one technology to improve energy efficiency in the
transportation sector ...............................................................................................................41
Table of Figures
Figure 1: US Presidential candidates' environmental policy perspectives ................................6
Figure 2: 17 advanced energy technologies and technology matrix of MHI, Daikin, Yaskawa,
and Ebara .................................................................................................................................6
Figure 3: IEA Energy Technology Perspectives 2008 list of advanced energy technologies and
related companies.....................................................................................................................8
Figure 4: 17 advanced energy technologies major related companies' valuation .....................9
Figure 5: Artificially caused GHG by type of gases and by sector(2004).................................11
Figure 6: GHG stabilization levels and probability ranges for temperature increases (range of
potential changes) and global impact......................................................................................12
Figure 7: Schedule relating to environment topic till the end of 2009.....................................13
Figure 8: Japan GHG emission (FY2006 actual) ......................................................................15
Figure 9: CO2 emission comparison between baseline scenario and Blue scenario...............17
Figure 10: Global CO2 emission by sector and scenario.........................................................17
Figure 11: Global energy system marginal cost for CO2 emission cut (2050) ........................18
Figure 12: Additional cost increase in ACT and Blue scenarios compared with baseline .......18
Figure 13: GHG reduction rate by scenario and segment(2050) .............................................18
Figure 14: GHG reduction target by scenario and technology (2050) .....................................19
Figure 15: Power generation sector average additional capacity increase b/w 2005-2050 by
scenario and technology .........................................................................................................20
Figure 16: Road map of 17 advanced energy technologies ....................................................22
Figure 17: GHG reduction by technology and scenario and cost of R&D, demonstration, and
deployment............................................................................................................................23
Figure 18: GSG reduction target comparison in 21 innovative technologies and 17 advanced
energy technologies................................................................................................................25
Figure 19: 21 innnovative technologies and technology matrix of MHI, Daikin, Yaskawa, and
Ebara......................................................................................................................................25
Figure 20: GHG reduction by sector, technology and scenario (2050)....................................27
Figure 21: CCS projects for power plants(>100MW)..............................................................30
Figure 22: CO2 storage projects..............................................................................................31
Figure 23: PV global market share(2007 preliminary data) ......................................................33
Figure 24: Wind power genaration capacity forecast..............................................................35
Figure 25: Wind power generation global capacity ranking (2007) .........................................35
Figure 26: Wind power generation global market share (2007) ..............................................36
Figure 27: Geothermal plant global capacity(2005) .................................................................38
Figure 28:Japan's measures to reduce greenhouse gas by 11% in 2020 from 2005
level(domestic only) ................................................................................................................40
Summary and investment
opinion
Purpose of this report
In its 2008 edition of Energy Technology Perspectives (ETP) published on June 6, the
International Energy Agency (IEA) estimates total additional investment of $45trn (about
¥4,700trn) will be needed between now and 2050 to halve global greenhouse gas (GHG)
emissions. This amounts to a bit less than 1% of average annual global GDP over the period.
ETP 2008 also contains global roadmaps for 17 key advanced energy technologies. The
purpose of this report is to examine these 17 technologies for preventing GHG emissions and
also discuss related companies.
We published a report on April 3 (21 innovative technologies:Stockpicking based on METI's
Cool Earth GHG reduction plan) that examined METI's Cool Earth Innovative Technology Plan
released on March 5 and the 21 innovative technologies it sees as accounting for roughly
60% of the targeted 50% reduction in GHG emissions by 2050. Technologies such as carbon
capture and storage (CCS), integrated gasification combined cycle (IGCC), nuclear power
generation, solar power generation, biomass, energy efficient buildings, heat pumps, and fuel
cell vehicles are listed in both 17 key advanced energy technologies and 21 innovative
technologies. For detailed discussion of these technologies, refer to our April 3 report.
Awareness of global warming has changed since 2006
Global warming will be high on the agenda at this July's G8 summit in Toyako, Hokkaido. The
US Presidential election in November could also impact environmental policy. With 2009
marking the end of the post-Kyoto Protocol negotiation period under the so-called Bali
Roadmap, we think the 2009 COP 15 meeting could see the US take the lead in setting
targets for GHG reductions from 2013. The environmental policies of the US presidential
candidates (Figure 1) suggest a stronger commitment to reaching a global consensus on
reducing GHG emissions will likely be required.
The world has become much more serious about addressing global warming partly as a
result of the Stern Report, issued by the UK in 2006. The report was one of the first to
examine the phenomenon's economic impact, with its core conclusion that ignoring the
problem could reduce global GDP by over 20% while addressing it would cost just 1% of
GDP each year. The IEA’s estimate of roughly ¥4,700trn in additional investment needs
between now and 2050 is equal to around 1% of average annual global GDP over the period,
consistent with the conclusion of the Stern Report. The Stern Report, former US Vice-
President Al Gore's documentary film An Inconvenient Truth (2006), and the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Control’s (IPCC) fourth assessment report (2007) have all
helped prompt a more serious response to the issue of global warming. Al Gore and the IPCC
shared the 2007 Nobel Peace Prize.
Total additional investment
of around ¥4,700trn needed
to prevent global warming
Expanding on “21 innovative
technologies”
Stern Report gives world a
wakeup call
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