新鸿基证券：中国地产行业2009年展望

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China Property 2009 Outlook - Neutral
􀂄 Recent policy easing for the property sector has removed nearly all the
tightening measures that were put in place a year ago, far exceeding our
previous expectations. This delivers a strong message about the central
government’s determination to revive the real estate market. We see these moves
as a positive driver for the property market to become more market oriented (see
our previous sector report, Real Estate Becoming More Market Oriented,
published on 29 Oct.)
􀂄 Despite the recent announcement of policy easing, we do not expect property
prices to surge in 2009, due to:
1. The weaker economy (as many companies have reduced production and
even closed down, with the worsening employment situation hurting
homebuyers’ purchasing power).
2. Substantial leftover inventory from 2008.
We expect many property developers with tight funding situations to sell these
properties at the current market value to ease their finances. Such firms include
Guangzhou R&F (2777.HK, HK$8.10, Neutral), Hopson (754.HK, HK$5.24,
Not Rated), Greentown (3900.HK, HK$3.24, Neutral) and Shanghai Forte
(2337.HK, HK$1.25, Sell)
􀂄 Even so, we believe the policy stimulus will attract homebuyers to the market,
as lower tax payments, transaction charges and interest rates effectively give a
discount to house prices. We expect this demand to help stabilize prices in most
urban areas and the sector to start to emerge from this trough. In particular, we
see sales recoveries and market-share expansion for the stronger developers in
2009.
􀂄 Developers with sufficient funds should be able to further expand market share
by acquiring projects from smaller players or those with insufficient funds to
complete their projects. They will have strong bargaining power because of the
fragmented market and because of the tight finances for many developers
following credit tightening since late 2007. We therefore see stronger and
better-financed developers putting even more distance between themselves and
their weaker rivals in 2009.
Stock Picks: Remain Selective
􀂄 We have examined the 2009 prospects for China property stocks based on
several criteria, such as financial position, land-bank size, location, quality,
valuation and benefits from policy easing. We remain negative toward
developers with high gearing, small land banks or unattractive locations, such as
in outskirts or cities that face greater challenges from the global economic
slowdown. Such players are unlikely to expand market share, and might be
forced into large price cuts to attract volume sales or even have to sell their
projects to rivals. This would further weaken income and profits. We would sell
developers with these characteristics, such as Shanghai Forte (2337.HK,
HK$1.25, Sell).
􀂄 We are positive toward stronger developers with sufficient funds and diverse
land banks in prime locations. These players should benefit more from policy
easing and a recovery in sales volumes from mid-high end market, and the
current downturn is a good opportunity for them to further strengthen their
market positions. Our top three picks in the sector are COLI (688.HK,
HK$10.7, Buy), Sino-Ocean Land (3377.HK, HK$3.18, Buy), and KWG
(1813.HK, HK$2.18, Buy).

China Property 2009 Outlook - Neutral
Key Themes
􀂄 Market oriented and policy support expected to continue
􀂄 Strong players to grow faster and drive out the weak.
􀂄 Stock picks remain selective.
More Market Oriented in 2009
􀂄 The State Council announced at its latest meeting that it would implement further
policy easing for the property sector. The policy easing removes nearly all the
tightening measures that were put in place a year ago, far exceeding our previous
expectations.
􀂄 This delivers a strong message about the central government’s determination to
revive the real estate market. We see the latest moves as a positive driver for the
property market to become more market oriented (see our previous sector report,
Real Estate Becoming More Market Oriented, published on 29 Oct.)
Further policy easing ahead
􀂄 In addition to several recent positive policy changes for the property sector, we
expect further policy easing and support in 2009, as mainland developers have
recording mixed recent sales results. Sales volumes rebounded strongly in
November 2008 in some cities/provinces, mainly due to policy easing. The effect
was not across the board though, with sales in some cities rebounding less than
expected (see Figure 3).

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