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Alternative & Renewable Energy
Down…But Not Out
Equity Research Industry Report January 2009
Ben Isaacson, MBA, CFA – (416) 945-5310
Utilities –
Alternative & Renewable Energy
For Reg AC Certification and important disclosures see Appendix A of this report.
10 Reasons We Remain Long-Term Bulls
Financing Renewables in a Post-Credit Crunch World
Playing the Consolidation Theme
Kick-Start 2009 with Free Development Pipelines
A Solar Shakeout Is Inevitable
Contents
Down… 4
…But Not Out 5
Stock Recommendations 6
Sector Outperforms 6
Sector Underperforms 6
The Rest of the Pack 7
Why Renewable Power Stocks Were Down 70% in 2008 10
Global Energy Complex Worth Materially Less 10
Weak Credit and Equity Markets 12
10 Reasons We Remain Long-Term Bulls 15
Renewable Portfolio Standards Keep Growing 15
The Failed Kyoto Protocol Requires a Successor Program by 2012 15
Renewable Power Capital Costs Should Start to Flatten Shortly 16
The Implementation of Carbon-Pricing Mechanisms Are Accelerating 17
Long-Term Global Demand for Limited Fossil Fuels Continues to Rise 17
Increased Transmission to Accommodate Renewables Is Evolving 18
Political Support Continues to Strengthen for Alternative Energy 19
Energy Security and Independence Remain a Strong Societal Concern 19
Renewable Subsidy and Incentive Growth Remain Intact 20
Weak Credit and Equity Markets will Eventually Recover 20
Financing Renewables in a Post-Credit Crunch World 21
Renewable Power Project Capital Structures Require More Equity 21
Debt Financing Availability Has Declined, But Is Still Available for Quality Infrastructure Projects 21
Only 10% of Widened Credit Spreads Have Been Offset by Falling Reference Rates 21
Project Debt Remains More Favourable to IPPs than Corporate Debt,
But the Market Is, For the Most Part, Closed 22
Low Share Prices will Likely Delay Companies Raising Project Equity 22
Green Bonds Are an Increasingly Popular IPP Financing Alternative 22
Testing the Consolidation Theme… 23
Theoretical Consolidation Results Are Mixed 24
Run of River Power On the Block? 25
Kick-Start 2009 with Free Development Pipelines 26
Babcock & Brown Wind Asset Sale Supports Our NAVs 26
Buy the Operating Assets at a Discount, Get the Pipeline for Free 26
Obama’s Challenge – Two Birds, One Stone 32
What About T. Boone Pickens’ Solution? 33
Carbon Prices Falling with Lower Energy Complex 34
Carbon Market Progress in Canada Slow…For Several Reasons 34
Wind Power Capital Costs Should Ease in Late 2010 35
Many Turbine Manufacturers Have Filled Their Order Books for 2009+ 35
Wind Turbine Manufacturing Capacity Still Expanding 36
Assessing the China Factor 37
Offshore Wind Finally Approved in the U.S. 38
Emerging Technologies 38
Select Wind Power Developments 39
A Solar Shakeout Is Inevitable 41
Solar Oversupply Reduced Pricing Power 42
Italy Leads New Solar Growth Initiatives 42
40.8% Solar Cell Efficiency Achieved 43
Quebec’s 3,500 MW Northern Plan to Include Solar 43
Geothermal M&A Won’t Prevent Financing Woes 46
U.S. PTC Renewal Encouraging for Geothermal Development, But Financing Risks Increasing 46
USGS Geothermal Findings Supportive of Accelerated Growth 47
Geothermal Project and Financing Developments 47
Biomass Economics Improving on Lower Oil Prices 49
Biomass Project Developments 49
Some Marine Power Investment Still Flowing…Surprisingly 50
Wave Power Developments 50
Tidal Power Developments 51
Boralex Inc. 52
F2009 Outlook 52
Recent Developments 53
Debt Summary 53
Canadian Hydro Developers Inc. 57
F2009 Outlook 57
Recent Developments 58
Debt Summary 58
EarthFirst Canada Inc. 62
CCAA Thoughts 62
Innergex Renewable Energy Inc. 66
F2009 Outlook 66
Recent Developments 66
Debt Summary 67
Plutonic Power Corporation 71
F2009 Outlook 71
Recent Developments 71
Debt Summary 71
Pristine Power Inc. 75
F2009 Outlook 75
Recent Developments 75
Debt Summary 75
Appendix 1 – Testing the Consolidation Theme 79
Appendix 2 – RES III Registered Proponents 87
Appendix 3 – BC Hydro Clean Power Call Registered Propenents 88
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