欧洲生物制药行业研究报告2009年2月

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Initiating Coverage on
European Biotechnology
Industry Overview and Initiation of Coverage for:
• Actelion Pharmaceuticals (ATLN VX)
• Addex Pharmaceuticals (ADXN SW)
• Basilea Pharmaceutica (BSLN SW)
• Cosmo Pharmaceuticals (COPN SW)
• Crucell NA (CRXL NA)
• Genmab A/S (GEN DC)
• Intercell AG (ICLL AV)
• Newron Pharmaceuticals S.p.A. (NWRN SW)

Table of Contents
Industry Overview: Capitalising on the Cash Crunch in Biotech 3
Initiation of Coverage 17
Actelion Pharmaceuticals 19
Addex Pharmaceuticals 33
Basilea Pharmaceutica 41
Cosmo Pharmaceuticals 49
Crucell NA 59
69
Intercell AG 79
Newron Pharmaceuticals S.p.A. 89

Event
We are initiating coverage on the European biotech universe with
Buy recommendations on Genmab, Intercell, Newron and Crucell.
We have an Underperform on Basilea and Hold ratings on
Actelion, Addex and Cosmo.
Key Points
• Cash crunch: We expect the funding window to remain highly
polarised for much of this year, with smaller biotechs finding
new capital scarce. Hence stocks with less than two years'
funding are likely to trade at a discount to fair value, which we
reflect via an implied dilution in our valuations. In our opinion
larger and well-financed biotechs should outperform but
companies in less fortunate financial positions must face up to
harsh realities such as restructuring, closure or asset disposals.
We believe this environment could present attractive
opportunities for investors willing to selectively hold stocks
through these volatile times and build a biotech portfolio at
bargain prices.
• Partnership upside: Our proprietary licensing deals database
suggests exponential growth in the value of deals, benefiting
biotechs with unpartnered products or innovative drug discovery
platforms. Existing partnerships can also drive outperformance
if significant milestones are achieved or raise confidence in a
product, in our view. We find that upfront fees to secure
products rose substantially in 2008, as smaller biotechs
sacrificed longer-term milestones and/or higher future royalties
for more cash in the near term. In the week following an
out-licensing deal, the median stock outperformance is
+6%-7%.
• Sector consolidation in focus: Owning biotechs solely in
anticipation of an acquisition is not a strategy we advocate,
preferring to screen by partnerships, given the similarity in
drivers and triggers. Nevertheless, with the combination of
attractive biotech valuations and cash-rich but pipeline-poor
large caps, we view M&A as inevitable.
• Regulators could push biotechs to sell: A growing emphasis
from regulatory authorities on safety and comparative efficacy is
likely to force some biotechs to out-license or sell, in our
opinion, as larger and more costly clinical trials are likely to be
beyond the financial means or wherewithal of smaller biotechs.
We believe ultimately this trend could be detrimental to the
approval of novel therapies and value creation in the sector, but
in the near term could compel strategic decisions that are
catalysts for biotech shares.

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欧洲生物制药行业研究报告2009年2月
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