摩根斯坦利:全球证券市场投资策略报告2009年3月

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Investment Outlook
March 2009
Barbara M. Reinhard, CFA
GWMG Deputy Chief Investment Strategist
Chief Operating Officer, Asset Allocation Committee
1
Note: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Estimates of future performance are based on assumptions that may not be realized. The securities mentioned are provided
for informational purposes only and should not be deemed as a recommendation to buy or sell. The indices are unmanaged. An investor cannot invest directly in an index. They
are shown for illustrative purposes only and do not represent the performance of any specific investment.
Source: Bloomberg, FactSet, Standard and Poor’s, National Bureau of Economic Research, Morgan Stanley Global Wealth Management Asset Allocation Group.
David M. Darst, CFA
GWMG Chief Investment Strategist
Chairman, Asset Allocation Committee
Fixed Income did not provide
its traditional refuge in
declining equity markets as
U.S. Treasury yields rose
from the record lows seen at
the beginning of the year,
which translated into bond
price declines.
Investor concerns persist on
the efficacy of the
Administration’s restorative
policies and the severity of
incoming economic data.
At 15 months in duration, the
current recession has
surpassed the post-WWII
average recession length of
10 months.
Morgan Stanley
Global Wealth Management
Asset Allocation Group
The bear market intensified in February with a decline in the global equity markets and a decisive breakthrough of the index lows
of November. The S&P 500 Index fell -10.7% for the month, the MSCI Europe Index (in U.S. Dollars) fell -10.2%, and the MSCI
Japan Index (in U.S. Dollars) -12.4%. Fixed Income did not provide its traditional refuge in declining equity markets as U.S.
Treasury yields rose from the record lows seen at the beginning of the year, which translated into bond index declines. Credit
spreads on corporate bonds widened and municipal bond yields also rose on investor concerns over the torrent of issuance that
is slated to come to the market.
There are two major factors working overtime to pull the equity markets lower. The first factor is policy traction. The
Administration’s fiscal stimulus is seen as less timely and targeted than market participants expected, with less than 25% of the
overall impact occurring in fiscal year 2009. Additionally, the Financial Stability Plan introduced by Treasury Secretary Geithner in
early February did not give sufficient detail to calm the marketplace. While the plan’s four elements: stress tests for banks to
assess the need to raise additional capital from the Treasury; a public/private investment fund to induce investors to bid for toxic
assets; an expansion of the Term Asset-Backed Security Lending Facility (TALF) to provide loans to buyers of securitized debt;
and lastly, mortgage foreclosure mitigation are a solid outline for the future, success will likely be reliant on the forthcoming
execution of the plan.
The second factor weighing on equity markets has been the course of incoming economic data. Already 15 months in duration,
the current recession has surpassed the average post-WWII average length of 10 months. Virtually every economic data point is
being scrutinized in search of a sign of stabilization or of abatement in the rate of descent that may signal light at the end of the
tunnel. The Institute for Supply Management’s Manufacturing Index has had two monthly improvements following its worst
readings in 30 years. Also, the Leading Economic Indicators Index has risen for two consecutive months. Despite an apparent
lessening in the steepness of the declines, volatility remains elevated in the data and the headwinds to the economy remain for
the near term.
The Morgan Stanley Economics team forecasts that the monetary and fiscal stimuli will help promote positive growth in late 2009
and a sustainable recovery in 2010. The team believes the key to eventual recovery will be the sequencing in the financial and
economic healing. Such steps involve backstopping the financial system, followed by balance sheet repair for banks, and finally,
balance sheet repair for U.S. consumers.
In the Morgan Stanley Global Wealth Management Asset Allocation Frameworks, our GWM Asset Allocation Committee’s
Tactical Asset Allocation favors Cash, recommends TIPS as a form of inexpensive inflation protection, and continues to see
Gold, in spite of its multiyear price run-up and its growing degree of investor “popularity,” as somewhat of a hedge against further
adverse decline in equity prices.

Table of Contents
Morgan Stanley
Global Wealth Management
Asset Allocation Group
Investment Outlook
From the Global Wealth Management Asset Allocation Committee Page 1
Market Returns, Standard Deviations of Returns, and Correlations of Returns
For Recent Months’ and Multi-Month Time Frames Page 2
Global Equity Market Valuations
Current and 10-Year Historical Valuation Metrics for Developed and Emerging Countries Page 8
Investment Outlook
U.S., Europe, Developed Asia, Emerging Markets, and Alternative Investments Page 9
Summary of Morgan Stanley Strategy Opinions and 9 Investment Ideas for 2009
For Global Equity, Economics, Currency, Commodities, Fixed Income, and Interest Rate Strategy Page 18
Global Wealth Management Asset Allocation Tactical Reasoning,
Frameworks, and Footnotes
For Conservative, Moderate, and Aggressive Investors Page 21

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