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The R-word is now Recovery
The latest data support our forecast of an H2 recovery
Business and consumer confidence rose significantly in April, and the rate of
contraction in global output appears to be easing. We expect that real GDP in the
advanced economies will keep contracting in the second quarter, but at a much
slower pace than in Q1. Growth will then turn positive in Q3 and stay positive in
Q4. Our average growth rate projections for global real GDP growth in 2009 and
2010 remain unchanged at -0.7% and +3.3%, respectively.
Policy stimulus and inventory cycle the initial drivers
Monetary policy easing and unconventional measures continue to be adopted by
central banks around the world. The ECB will cut its reference rate to 1.0%
although refraining from ‘quantitative easing’ for now. US fiscal policy stimulus is
kicking in, and other countries are readying further measures. Stock-building will
probably stop being a drag on growth in Q3.
Swine flu looks unlikely to derail the expected recovery
If the flu outbreak in Mexico turned into a pandemic, this could cause another dip
in global economic activity. However, the effect would be temporary, and we are
encouraged by the view expressed by epidemiologists that the flu strain is not
particularly virulent, though it may mutate adversely as it spreads among humans.
Central banks will take no chances with growth
Central banks are acutely aware of the need to assure markets that there is a
viable ‘exit strategy’ from unconventional policies and quantitative easing.
However, given significant risks of a relapse as the policy stimulus abates or is
reversed, central banks will probably stick to a very accommodative policy for as
long as the output gap remains wide.
Near-term inflation risks nil, QE to boost risky asset prices
The sharp rise in unemployment and the plunge in capacity utilization rates
suggest that near-term inflation risks are extremely low. Things may be different in
the long term, as the huge monetary stimulus will ultimately boost growth in the
Emerging Markets and this will put significant upward pressure on oil and
commodity prices. In the short term, however, it seems to us that the most likely
effect of quantitative easing (QE) will be to boost the equity and credit markets.
Bond yields have probably bottomed, curves to steepen
The improvement in confidence still rests on fragile foundations and significant
risks remain. Bonds will continue to be supported by large output gaps, rising
unemployment and outright deflation in the headline CPI. However, the bond
market is likely to increasingly focus on the sharp rise in government debt and the
‘exit strategy’ from quantitative easing. Curves could steepen further, in our view.
Contents
Global overview: the R-word is now Recovery 3
US: the aphotic zone 8
Canada: if swine flu is like SARS… 10
Eurozone: beyond the inflection 12
Other developed Europe 14
Japan: statistics suggest start of recovery phase 16
Australia: RBA and budget ahead 18
EM Asia: hitting the “W-al-L” 20
EEMEA: (mis)overestimated green shoots? 23
Latin America: recovery vs flu 25
Global economic calendar 28
Global forecasts 29
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