2009年11月欧洲保险行业研究报告

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【出版时间及名称】：2009年11月欧洲保险行业研究报告
        【作者】：Fox-Pitt
        【文件格式】：PDF
        【页数】：44
        【目录或简介】：
More green shoots – changing of the order
• New stock preferences. Our preferred continental European stock remains Zurich Financial Services,
followed by Allianz – we rate both Outperform. We are a little less cautious on both AXA (In Line) after
recent weakness and on Generali (Underperform) due to an improving Italian operating environment. Our
least preferred stock is Mapfre (previously Generali), which we rate Underperform.
• More green shoots. Both the life and non-life industries showed further signs of recovery during 3Q09. Life
new business volume growth strengthened (especially traditional products) and non-life pricing also
improved a bit (with important territorial differences). Improvements in life seem to be of greater magnitude
than those in non-life, but the former seems more reliant on economic recovery. We adopt a relatively
cautious macro outlook, anticipating more economic volatility than over the last three decades.
• Four issues. There are four main takeaways from 3Q09. First, German motor seems to be as competitive
as ever; we had previously hoped for some moderation this year. Second, Italy is becoming more attractive:
life new business volumes are rebounding strongly and we think non-life auto pricing is turning. Third, AIG’s
106.4% 3Q09 commercial combined ratio could point to better US commercial pricing. Fourth, we were
surprised by (but welcomed) AXA’s EUR2.1bn rights issue, as the AMP transaction does not seem to
warrant a capital raising on its own – we think further Asian M&A is possible.
• Top pick: Zurich Financial Services (Outperform). We think its non-life premium mix offers a relatively
attractive pricing outlook and its capital ratios are strong, something we view as important given our macro
outlook. Our year-end fair value estimate is CHF312, offering 35% upside potential.
• Least preferred: Mapfre (Underperform). We think Spain is currently one of Europe’s least attractive nonlife
markets – price competition is strong but there does not appear to be the same impetus to raise prices
as there is, say, in Italy. Our year-end fair value estimate is EUR3.35, offering just 9% upside potential.
• Other ratings. We rate Allianz Outperform with a EUR106 year-end fair value estimate, or 27% upside
potential. We rate AXA In Line with a EUR19.5 year-end fair value estimate, or 19% upside potential. We
rate Generali Underperform with a EUR20.4 year-end fair value estimate, or 14% upside potential.

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关键词：行业研究报告 研究报告 行业研究 保险行业 Improvements 研究报告 行业 欧洲