2010年3月以色列电信行业研究报告

相似文件 换一批

是 否 +2 论坛币

k人 参与回答

经管之家送您一份

应届毕业生专属福利!

求职就业群

赵安豆老师微信：zhaoandou666

经管之家联合CDA

送您一个全额奖学金名额~ !

立即领取

感谢您参与论坛问题回答

经管之家送您两个论坛币！

+2 论坛币

【出版时间及名称】：2010年3月以色列电信行业研究报告
        【作者】：德意志银行
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：30
        【目录或简介】：


Raising Bezeq price target; maintain Hold on Partner and Cellcom
While we believe that the dividend yields of all the telcos could be attractive to
certain investors, we think there will be many challenges in 2010 for the pure-play
cellular operators. We therefore maintain our Hold recommendation on Cellcom
(PT ILS 125) and Partner (PT ILS 77). With its more diversified service offering, the
growth potential from Pelephone and the potential of its NGN network, Bezeq
remains our top pick in the sector. We maintain our Buy recommendation and
raise our price target to ILS 11.
Deutsche Bank AG/London
All prices are those current at the end of the previous trading session unless otherwise indicated. Prices are sourced from local
exchanges via Reuters, Bloomberg and other vendors. Data is sourced from Deutsche Bank and subject companies. Deutsche
Bank does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. Thus, investors should be aware that the firm
may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single
factor in making their investment decision. Independent, third-party research (IR) on certain companies covered by DBSI's research
is available to customers of DBSI in the United States at no cost. Customers can access IR at
http://gm.db.com/IndependentResearch or by calling 1-877-208-6300. DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS ARE
LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1. MICA(P) 106/05/2009
Forecast Change
Companies featured
Bezeq (BEZQ.TA),ILS10.51 Buy
2009A 2010E 2011E
EV/EBITDA (x) 4.8 6.3 6.2
P/E (x) 9.5 12.0 11.9
DB EPS (ILS) 0.78 0.87 0.88
Cellcom (CEL.TA),ILS128.80 Hold
2009A 2010E 2011E
EV/EBITDA (x) 5.5 6.7 6.5
P/E (x) 8.5 10.6 10.6
DB EPS (ILS) 12.01 12.15 12.14
Partner Communications (PTNR.TA),ILS83.65 Hold
2009A 2010E 2011E
EV/EBITDA (x) 5.3 6.8 6.5
P/E (x) 9.2 10.7 10.3
DB EPS (ILS) 7.34 7.85 8.15
Global Markets Research Company
Dividends remain the key story
With little growth potential but with high cash generation, the sector’s main
attractiveness remains its dividend payout. Partner’s share price rallied on the
back of an announced capital reduction, but has settled following the “ex-date”.
Partner has adjusted its dividend payout from 80% to at least 80% in 2010,
although we believe this was to allow the company flexibility, and have modeled
100% payout going forward. In April, Bezeq will be paying an extraordinarily high
dividend based on 2009 results, which included a one-time gain on the deconsolidation
of YES. Following this we should see a return to more normalized
dividend levels. Bezeq currently has the highest official dividend policy of the
telcos, and another capital reduction is a possibility, either in 2010 or 2011.
Cellcom was the only player that did not pay a special dividend, but we expect it
to continue to pay out c95%, although its official payout policy is 75%.
Regulator appears focused on the cellular sector
We believe the greatest threat is from the Regulator, who appears focused on the
cellular sector. We believe that the Regulator will attempt to increase competition
either through an MVNO or by providing advantages to Mirs, or both. In addition,
another interconnect fee cut may be forthcoming. This could place pricing
pressure on revenues and profitability. We believe Bezeq would be less
vulnerable than the pure cellular operators, as less than half of Bezeq’s revenues is
derived from cellular operations. In addition, following the launch of its HSPA
network, Pelephone is gaining market share at the expense of its rivals, providing
a cushion against regulatory actions.
Valuations based on DCF model
We value Bezeq using a DCF model that assumes a WACC of 8.1% and a TGR of
0%. Our WACC is based on a RFR of 5.5%, an ERP of 4.75% (standard for the
Israeli market), a beta of 0.75. We use a DCF valuation methodology as we view
the company as a single entity, rather than a sum of its individual parts. We value
Cellcom based on a DCF model using an 8.3% WACC and a TGR of 0%. The
WACC is based on a RFR of 5.5% (Israeli long bond), an ERP of 4.75%, and a beta
of 0.80. We value Partner on a DCF model that assumes a WACC of 8.8% and a
TGR of 0%. Potential upside to our estimates is limited due to the regulatory
environment and market saturation. Our WACC assumptions include a RFR of
5.5%, ERP of 4.75%, beta 0.90; and a TGR of 0%. Risks for the sector include
intense competition and regulatory measures. This report changes ratings, price
targets, and/or estimates for several companies under coverage. For a detailed
listing of these changes, see page 6, figure 3 and company pages in this regard."
control of HOT. Mirs has an outdated infrastructure that would require a relatively large
capital investment. In our discussions with the regulator, we inferred that the Regulator may
implement internal roaming, whereby Mirs would upgrade its infrastructure in population
centers such as Tel Aviv, Jerusalem, Haifa and Beer Sheva, but would allow Mirs to use the
infrastructure of its competitors in other areas. This would be a far less costly option to Mirs,
creating a “partial MVNO”.
Further cuts in interconnect fees possible
When the Regulator initially targeted the cellular sector several years ago, it began by cutting
interconnect fees. The operators compensated by raising airtime tariffs. We believe that
interconnect fees could again be on the Regulator’s agenda, although cuts would come from
a lower base, so the impact would not be as great as in the past. Nevertheless, the
operators are more limited than in the past in terms of tariff hikes, as they are no longer are
allowed to raise tariffs during a customer’s contract period, normally 18 months.
Wholesale line rentals could benefit Partner
One area where the Regulator could actually help Partner is in the area of wholesale line
rentals. For years there has been talk of unbundling Bezeq’s fixed-line infrastructure, but
nothing was ever done. With Bezeq quickly moving to NGN, unbundling is no longer the
issue, but rather wholesale line rentals, where providers would get access to Bezeq’s
infrastructure. This is actually better for the providers than unbundling, as NGN would allow
for fewer and cheaper installations of infrastructure. This could help leverage Partner’s new
service offering, which has struggled to gain a footprint outside of its core cellular business.
Sector not cheap in comparison to peers, but FCF yields and dividends compensate
Trading at average 2010E EV/EBITDA of 6.5x, the sector is not “cheap” compared to global
peers. The CEEMEA average is 4.5x. However, on a PER basis it is more attractive at an
average PER of 11.0x, less than its CEEMEA or European peers. In addition, when
comparing to CEEMEA telcos, the sector’s FCF yield (10.8% vs 9.1%) and dividend yield
(9.0% vs. 4.5%) are very attractive. The Israeli telcos also have a higher FCF yield than the
European peer average of 10.1%, and also exceed the average European dividend yield of
5.6%.

扫码加我 拉你入群

请注明：姓名-公司-职位

以便审核进群资格，未注明则拒绝

分享0 收藏0 回帖

关键词：行业研究报告 研究报告 行业研究 电信行业 以色列 研究报告 行业 电信 以色列