2010年4月美国石油天然气行业研究报告

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【出版时间及名称】：2010年4月美国石油天然气行业研究报告
        【作者】：瑞士信贷
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：134
        【目录或简介】：

Big Oil's Fight Back Is Worth a Second Look
■ Action: Edward Westlake has assumed coverage of Chevron (CVX),
ExxonMobil (XOM), and ConocoPhillips (COP) and initiated coverage of
Marathon Oil (MRO) and Hess (HES). CVX (Outperform, $93 target price,
16% upside potential) remains our core large-cap holding. In addition, we
added MRO (Outperform, $41 target price, 27% upside potential) and COP
(Outperform, $68, 21% upside potential) to our global energy basket at
Overweight.
■ Big Oil struggled in the upcycle: Big Oil has struggled to fit into the
upcycle themes of the past five years. Credit Suisse Research has favored
National Oil Companies, oil services, and exploration themes instead of Big
Oil citing concerns over their access to resources; delivery against growth
targets; and rent transfer to resource holders/service suppliers.
■ Big Oil’s investor proposition improving: A combination of better targeted
project execution, downstream cost-cutting, portfolio shifts, and the release
of nonproductive capex could drive free cash flow yields (cash flow less
actual capex), toward 10% over time (at $80/bbl oil).
■ Meaningful exploration could improve re-investment returns: Big Oil
share performance has not traditionally been associated with exploration.
2010 may mark the year this sentiment changes. Not only has combined
spend increased to $16 billion, the mix of spending is shifting away from
seismic and towards drilling. This level of spend is consistent with 80-120%
organic reserve replacement. Returns on exploration can be double those
generated on non-conventionals, LNG and on access deals with National Oil
Companies. Higher return expectations should drive higher multiples, we
think.
■ Discounting less than $60/bbl: The current global economic recovery has
not yet been fully reflected in Big Oil’s earnings, and P/E multiples have
derated to only 9.4x 2010. We believe that Big Oil discounts less than
$60/bbl, using HOLT. A low earnings multiple on rising earnings appears
attractive to us, but timing will be key. We would watch for any slowdown in
margin expansion for the S&P through quarterly results for signals that value
might become a more important investor theme. As free cash flow expands
and exploration success rolls in, Big Oil could ride a wave of enthusiasm that
has not been present for some time to higher multiples. In the meantime, a
4.5% dividend yield (with headroom) is also attractive.

Table of Contents
Portfolio Manager Snapshot 3
Big Oil’s Performance Is Improving 6
Big Oil—Valuations Remain in Interesting Territory 8
Key Macro Views 13
Changes to Earnings, Macro Assumptions, Target Prices 17
What’s Missing (1): Hidden Upstream Free Cash Flow 19
What’s Missing (2): Performance Improvement 23
Exploration now at Material Levels, Even for Big Oil 25
Valuation: The Allure of Enduring Returns 30
ExxonMobil Corporation (XOM) 36
Chevron Corp. (CVX) 50
ConocoPhillips (COP) 64
Hess Corporation (HES) 81
Marathon Oil Corp (MRO) 100
Appendix I—A Macro Melt-Up Unlikely, But Offers EPS Optionality 125
Appendix II—Break Up or Shake Up Disposal Potential 128

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