CONTENTS
Summary 3
I— Valuation: What is the market telling us? 5
􀁑 Not very defensive investment vehicles 5
􀁑 A wide range of valuations 6
􀁑 Debt markets showing more confidence than the equity side 13
􀁑 How we define our target prices 14
II— Long-term change in traffic trends? 20
􀁑 Higher oil prices were only a catalyst in 2008 20
􀁑 Negative impact of the economic recession in 2009 21
􀁑 Long-term change in culture 22
III— Can investors be comfortable with future tariff trends? 25
􀁑 EU markets follow close rules 25
􀁑 Current regulatory issues differ among countries 27
􀁑 Valuation sensitivity to inflation 30
IV— Liquidity and debt analysis 32
􀁑 Abertis: Strong balance sheet 32
􀁑 Atlantia: Financing of a sizeable capex plan already secured 33
􀁑 Brisa: Liquidity is in place until 2013 35
􀁑 Cintra: Disposal program to restore the balance sheet 35
􀁑 Eiffage: High debt related to the acquisition of APRR 36
􀁑 Vinci: Solid financials support expansion in new green-field projects 37
V— Main characteristics of the European motorway sector 39
􀁑 The French network 40
􀁑 The Italian network 41
􀁑 The Portuguese network 42
􀁑 The Spanish network 42
VI— Company profiles 45
Abertis 46
Atlantia 48
Brisa 50
Cintra 52
Eiffage 54
Vinci 56