发帖
雷达卡
Leisure and Hotels
Positive 2009 UK Travel
Survey; We Remain Bullish
on Ryanair and TUI Travel
We surveyed 1,000 UK adults about their leisure
travel spending, following our identical survey last
year. Key findings:
1) UK consumers are less concerned, and more
optimistic, about their personal financial situation than
they were last year and therefore expect to take a
greater number of holidays in the next 12 months (both
long holidays and weekend breaks).
2) UK holidaymakers plan to maintain or increase their
travel and holiday spending.
3) Holidaymakers tend to book and confirm long
holidays one to six months before departure and most of
them don’t expect to change their time frame.
4) Europe remains the most popular destination for long
breaks, allowing LCCs to capture their fair share of this
segment of the market and potentially putting more
competitive pressure on the tour operators.
Our conclusions: The survey results help to support
the argument that demand for main holidays should
remain resilient despite the difficult economic
environment. We remain positive on the tour operators,
with TUI Travel our top pick. We think the resilience of
demand and additional capacity cuts in 2010 should
ensure the supply and demand balance remains in kilter.
Further merger synergies and cost reductions should
also help margins. For the LCCs, capacity management
will also be paramount, particularly through this coming
winter season. We estimate that overall seat capacity
will shrink around 6-7% based on all announced
capacity plans. However, swine flu expansion and the
increases in APD tax could materially affect volumes
and push carriers to further adjust capacity to protect
liquidity. Ryanair remains our top pick in the airline
space.
提升卡
置顶卡
沉默卡
变色卡
抢沙发
千斤顶
显身卡
京公网安备 11010802022788号
