摩根斯坦利：美国软件行业研究报告2009年9月

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Conclusion: We are downgrading our software industry
view from Attractive to In-Line as we move into the
growth phase of the economic recovery and beyond the
early cycle phase that has driven our universe up 44%
vs. the NASDAQ +12% since Oct. ‘08. Software’s
outperformance has started to abate in recent months,
however, and there may be more relative upside from
here in mid-cycle groups like hardware. We move to
In-Line (rather than Cautious) as we still believe our
group holds some absolute upside, but stock picking will
become more important as detailed below.
Performance & Valuation Tracking Past Recoveries:
Large cap multiples have expanded by 35-40% from
trough, driving most of the performance – representing
about 70-80% of the expansion seen in prior recoveries.
Our group is now within 5% of its 5 yr. avg. PEG, with the
avg. PE only 20% below ‘07 levels. We may see more
multiple expansion, but the next phase of performance
should be driven primarily by growth and est. revisions.
Some Recovery Already in Consensus: NTM EPS
growth for software went modestly negative in CY09, but
troughed well above other sectors—suggesting less
potential for relative growth in a recovery. Further, cons.
already reflects an average 23% acceleration in lic. rev.
growth CY09/10 (above levels seen in 2003), 150 bps of
op. margin expansion in CY10 and incremental margins
of 45% in CY10 for our group, well above the 6 yr.
avg—suggesting less potential for positive revisions.
Growth, Upside & Valuation Drive Longs: The base
case is now cyclical recovery, so we favor names with a)
faster than cyclical rev. growth, b) upside potential, c) co.
specific catalysts, and d) attractive valuations. Co.’s that
screen well include MSFT, ADBE, ORCL, FIRE & RHT,
while N, INTU, ADSK & CTXS are less attractive, and
we move the latter two from EW to Underweight.

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