【出版时间及名称】:2009年11月美国保险行业研究报告
【作者】:摩根斯坦利
【文件格式】:PDF
【页数】:43
【目录或简介】:
Investment conclusion: The key investment debate for
the life insurers in 2009 revolved around capital and
book value growth, with the best opportunities lying in
the companies closest to the edge of the abyss that
were able to pull through. We expect a different story in
2010, where we believe the investment debate will
instead focus on top-line growth and ROE expansion.
Third quarter results suggest the industry is only slowly
regaining momentum on these metrics — ROEs remain
under pressure at 9% while 75% of the companies we
follow posted Y/Y revenue declines. That said, following
the recent pull-back, valuation upside is now looking
more appealing — we are reiterating our Overweight
ratings on MetLife and RGA, while upgrading Aflac to
Overweight. Conversely, we are downgrading Principal
to Equal-weight over valuation concerns.
What's new: Despite over half of the life insurers
beating expectations, the group underperformed the
S&P500 by 7% reflecting concerns over growth and the
pace of improvement in sustainable returns.
Investment concerns dissipate: Lower realized losses
and the reversal of unrealized losses drove 20% growth
on average in reported book values, although this was
widely expected and was not a catalyst for the stocks.
Searching for growth: For the majority of companies,
revenues are declining and sales are under pressure.
Aflac and RGA are the companies with the highest
revenue growth in 3Q09, both of which we consider to
be attractive at current levels.
Valuation: At 88% of book (ex-AOCI) and 8.5 times
2010 EPS, the industry valuation is looking more
attractive, although we would expect appreciation from
here to be in-line with the broader market.