2009年12月亚太汽车行业研究报告

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【出版时间及名称】：2009年12月亚太汽车行业研究报告
        【作者】：摩根大通
        【文件格式】：PDF
        【页数】：62
        【目录或简介】：
• What is changing? We analyze: 1) the upward revision in our FY10
vehicle sales forecast, the impact of Rmb appreciation, the possible
expansion of the scope of vehicles that are eligible for preferential
vehicle purchase tax, and the reasons why China’s gasoline consumption
growth in FY09 is lagging that of the new passenger vehicle sales; 2) the
adjustment in our consolidated FY10 sales growth forecast, and FY10
earnings estimates for Korean auto producers; 3) our Indian auto growth
forecast for FY10 at 14%, based on government’s continued policy
support, economic revival, and market expansion; 4) Taiwan’s auto sales
and expectation of a 5%-10% sales volume growth for FY10; 5) the
Japan auto sector, and highlight the currency risk in the current low
earnings environment; 6) our FY10 Indonesian auto sales forecast of
about 20% Y/Y growth.
• Information: We discuss: 1) a) the positive impact of the capacity
expansion plan of the JV between Brilliance China and BMW in China;
b) the weakness in China’s October auto exports; 2) Toyota’s plan to set
up engine and transmission unit at its new plant in India; 3) the strong
turnaround in auto sales growth in Taiwan since the market’s bottoming
out in June CY09; 4) the outlook for of Japan’s auto market and auto
sales growth forecast for FY10; 5) Toyota Astra’s plan to freeze price
hikes in 2010 in Indonesia.
• Non-consensus calls: 1) We continue to maintain our Underweight rating
on Qingling Motor as its: a) its gross margin could continue to be under
pressure from rising competition in China’s truck sector; b) poor capital
management and a diversified product strategy; and c) its low ROE of
4% in FY10E. 2) We revised our rating for Hero Honda to Neutral after
its strong operating performance recently; we believe Hero Honda’s
earnings growth will moderate, given rising competition as well as a
moderation in operating margins.

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