2010年1月美国抵押贷款和保险业行业研究报告

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【出版时间及名称】：2010年1月美国抵押贷款和保险业行业研究报告
        【作者】：CORMARK证券
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：44
        【目录或简介】：

2010 Outlook - A Unique Opportunity: Reflecting on the performance of
real estate and mortgage markets in Canada in 2009, we were impressed by
the level of resilience despite significant economic headwinds. While we had
conviction that there would be no housing crash in Canada, the rebound in
activity surpassed our expectations. Looking forward into 2010, we believe
that the highest quality mortgage lenders face a unique opportunity. While
we anticipate moderation in the pace of housing activity, lenders are
entering 2010 with capital levels at cyclical highs, interest margins
improving, loan books that have remained on steady footing with recent
signs of improvement, and a wide open competitive playing field.
Canada has deftly avoided a housing crash and while some recent market
analysts have highlighted potential “bubble” conditions, we believe such a
risk is overstated. While the macro outlook is far from rosy, a slow economic
recovery is more likely to lead to a moderation in housing activity and real
estate prices over the next year rather than a boom-bust scenario. In our
report, we attempt to dispel what we believe are some of the misperceptions
that appear to be fueling bubble speculation in Canada.
Anticipate Solid Earnings Growth For Alternative Lenders: For the
equities in our universe, we review their performance in 2009, highlight risks
and opportunities for 2010, and introduce our 2011 estimates. We also
provide an update of the impacts from the scheduled conversion to IFRS
from Canadian GAAP in 2011.
Stabilizing Housing Market Also Positive For Genworth: We anticipate
that 2010 will also be a strong year for Genworth MI Canada, as improving
economic conditions help to drive down the loss ratio and boost earnings.
Other supportive factors include an improving yield on its investment
portfolio and the likelihood of a material increase in the dividend.

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