2010年2月中国汽车行业研究报告

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【出版时间及名称】：2010年2月中国汽车行业研究报告
        【作者】：摩根大通
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：38
        【目录或简介】：


months: 1) money supply growth to slow from 27.7% in FY09 to 17%
in FY10E; and 2) the rising risk premium arising from the
uncertainties over China’s exit strategy and the inflationary outlook.
That said, we continue to believe in China’s secular growth trend, and
expect Chinese equities to bottom around late April/May, given our
view that the maximum stress point for the economy might be
July/August, when China’s CPI is expected to peak.
• Neutral on China’s passenger vehicle (PV) sector because: 1) it
offers good secular growth in light of the low penetration rate of cars in
China and rising disposable income, even though it could be difficult
for the sector to deliver good absolute performance in the short term,
given the above tightening concerns; 2) unlike the heavy truck
industry, which is expected to be hurt by the tightening measures, the
PV sector represents a major consumption item in China, and benefits
from the accommodative government policies; and 3) there are upside
risks to the Chinese PV sector’s FY10E earnings in light of the sector’s
sharply improving profitability and big operating leverage.
• We maintain DongFeng Motor as our top pick. We raise our FY10
earnings estimates for Great Wall Motor by 36% to factor in the rampup
in its sedan sales, and the export recovery, and raise our Dec-10 PT
to HK$11, based on 9x FY10E P/E. We cut our FY10 and FY11
earnings estimates for DongFeng Motor by 4% and 3%, respectively, to
factor in the lower profit contribution from its DongFeng Honda
Engine business, and cut our Dec-FY10 PT to HK$13. We maintain
DongFeng Motor as our top pick among Chinese autos given: 1) its
defensive growth feature; 2) it is a large-cap stock with good liquidity;
3) company-specific drivers such as the launch of its high-margin
Citroen 5 and Peugeot 408 models at its DongFeng PSA JV. We are
neutral on small-cap local-branded vehicle producers given: a) the
multiple contraction pressure for small-caps against the backdrop of
monetary tightening; and b) rising competitive pressure due to sharp
capacity expansions within the small car segment and the entry of
foreign JVs into the segment as of 2010.

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