【出版时间及名称】:2010年2月印度石油天然气行业研究报告
【作者】:摩根斯坦利
【文件格式】:pdf
【页数】:50
【目录或简介】:
India Oil & Gas
Deregulation to Decide the
Future
What's Changed
Industry View: India Oil & Gas In-Line to Attractive
Investment conclusion: We raise our industry view to
Attractive, because we believe valuation for the overall
sector looks reasonable; most of the companies’
execution risks are behind them and the government is
taking the right steps towards total decontrol of
petroleum products. Our three top Overweight rated
stocks are Reliance Industries (RIL), Cairn and BPCL.
The pace of decontrol is difficult to ascertain; however,
implementation of the Kirit Parikh recommendations
could lead to a re-rating of the entire sector; with
earnings moving to our bull case. Key changes
suggested are: 1) decontrol of petrol and diesel; 2)
partial increase of kerosene prices by Rs6/litre and LPG
by Rs100/cylinder; 3) provide some leverage to
upstream players (ONGC) on crude oil, however tax
80% of incremental prices above US$90/bbl. Even
partial implementation would improve earnings visibility
for the government-owned oil companies and hence a
P/E re-rating; earnings too could rise by 30% to 50%.
Execution risks in RIL’s two big projects are behind
us: The 580 kbpd refinery and its KG D6 gas project are
both commissioned and we expect the company’s
profits to growth at a CAGR of 28% p.a. F2009-11.
Cairn is in the midst of commissioning its pipeline
as well as two of its trains during 1H2010, and moving
towards generating free cash flows. Post attaining full
production in F2012, based on US$85/bbl, we estimate
the company will have YoY cash flows of US$2.3bn p.a.,
i.e. 20% of its market cap.
BPCL gains on three counts: 1) refinery capacity
addition at Kochi and Bina; 2) balance sheet has
improved due to oil bonds and cash received; 3)
decontrol would improve visibility of cash flows.