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【出版时间及名称】：2010年4月中国传媒行业研究报告
【作者】：野村证券
【文件格式】：pdf
【页数】：34
【目录或简介】：
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We recently concluded our week-long China Media tour, during which we visited
with representatives from leading media agencies, including WPP, Publicis Group
(including Leo Burnett, Saatchi & Saatchi, Vivaki), as well as McCann Worldgroup,
MRM Worldwide, and Media Brands, among others. Here we offer our seven
takeaways on key trends in digital advertising in China.
Catalysts
Ongoing recovery of the advertising market is likely to benefit the sector.
Anchor themes
The Internet/media run in China still has room for further advance, in our view, with
growth momentum expected to accelerate on strong user-base expansion and
increased utilisation. Among the sub-sectors, we see digital advertising, at this
stage of the industry lifecycle, as the major potential beneficiary.
Takeaways from our China Media tour
Rural development
Expansion into lower-tier cities stands to benefits TV ads and outdoor ads, as well
as online ads.
Tencent to gain
Tencent looks well positioned among the consuming youth segment and users in
China’s lower-tier cities, which should support market-share gains.
Media price inflation
Advertisers in all mediums are spending more to capture the same audience
through greater utilisation of advertising, coupled with increased costs.
Return of traditional advertisers
Traditional advertisers like financials are coming back to online and outdoor
advertising.
Consumer-related advertising
Consumer-related advertising will continue to drive growth in the coming years.
Online video
We have seen an aggressive push towards online video portals from traditional
portals such as Sina and Sohu, as well new entrants such as Baidu and Hurray.
The rise of verticals and SNS
Verticals and social networking sites (SNS) are gaining significant market share
from portals.
products. Still, with the support of the stimulus package and an improving economy,
many of these agencies are seeing a rebound in financial advertising, largely from
Chinese domestic banks and insurance. We believe that incremental growth in
spending among financials, together with growth in autos/transportation, bodes well for
Sina and Sohu and outdoor media players such as AirMedia and Focus Media, given
these companies’ demographic profiles. Of note, we believe that growth in the auto
segment is strictly a function of new car introductions and government subsidies. In
2009, 46 new car models were introduced in China, and Nomura’s China auto analyst
Yankun Hou expects another 40 to be rolled out this year.
5) Consumer-related advertising
We believe that consumer-related advertising will continue to drive growth in the
coming years. As shown in Exhibit 5, autos/transportation, financials, real estate and
IT products are traditional advertisers in digital media. Historically, the Internet has not
been as widespread, and the market has typically catered to the kind of Internet users
on the lookout for condos and automobiles. Advertisers of consumer staples such as
shampoos and potato chips have tended to shun Internet advertising, being of the view
that the medium did not offer critical mass and general appeal.
However, many advertisers have pointed out that in overall Chinese consumption, fastmoving
consumer goods (FMCG) are likely to drive growth in advertising spend in the
coming years, with most expenditure coming from domestic companies. Domestic
companies feel they have a lot more “catching up to do”, as one agency put it, to
establish their brand names among the youth market, and the Internet is seen as the
battleground for this. Having nearly halved its CCTV spending this year, Procter &
Gamble is sharpening its focus on digital, with young Chinese consumers fast
becoming the sweet spot. Several of our media presenters noted that companies,
domestic and multinational alike, are intent on building their brands among the 15-to-
25-year age group with a view to creating brand loyalty. That said, all of our presenters
agreed that Tencent will be “a force to be reckoned with” in the near term, with many
advertisers, including Procter & Gamble, having already shifted some of their spending
from Sina to Tencent.
6) Online video
We have seen an aggressive push towards online video portals by traditional portals
such as Sina and Sohu, as well new entrants Baidu and Hurray. The land grab we are
seeing in video is largely related to the potential shift from traditional TV to online TV.
We believe that profitability in this business will be muted in the near term — none of
the video sites are making money on a standalone basis, not even YouTube. The
business is not particularly scalable, given largely commoditised content, high content
piracy, bandwidth costs, and minimal differentiation between sites. Our recent
conversation with Tudou suggests that this private company first became profitable in
2Q09. However, with bandwidth and operating costs continuing to increase, the
company is debating whether to do another round of financing just to expand
bandwidth.
Higher bandwidth does not necessarily translate into higher revenue. However, at the
2009 China Joy Conference, we surveyed over 200 users under the age of 20 and
more than 92% suggested they prefer online video compared with traditional television
due to on-demand programmes, minimal commercials compared with traditional
television, exposure to foreign programming, and ease of use. Our panel of media
experts noted that while online video advertising presents a small incremental cost
(extracting the same TV advertisement for use on the Internet), it does provide a new
medium for broadcast. Furthermore, advertisers, particularly those that don’t
participate much in CCTV auctions, view online video advertising as an affordable way
of reaching the same demographic — hence, usage from domestic companies is on
the rise.
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