2010年4月新加坡证券市场投资策略报告

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【出版时间及名称】：2010年4月新加坡证券市场投资策略报告
        【作者】：野村证券
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：56
        【目录或简介】：

Contents
Ready to re-rate 3
Overview 3
Sector views and stock picks 5
Stock picks 7
Recovery in place, policy tightening likely 8
Valuation 10
Earnings outlook 11
Sector views 13
Banks and Financials (Bullish) 13
Commodities (Bullish) 14
Conglomerates (Bullish) 15
Telcos (Neutral) 16
Transport (Neutral) 17
Gaming and Lodging (Bearish) 18
Property (Bearish) 19
Policy issues 21
Singapore Budget 2010 24
Latest company views
OCBC 27
United Overseas Bank 30
Wilmar International 33
Noble Group 36
ST Engineering 39
Keppel Corp 42
Fraser and Neave 45
Singapore Airport Terminal Services 48
Biosensors International 51

Singapore 2Q Outlook: Ready to re-rate
 12% upside, tracking market EPS growth expectations
Following the consolidation in the first quarter, we think the Singapore market is
positioned to re-rate on the back of improving economic fundamentals, positive
employment outlook and reasonable valuations (FY10F P/BV of 1.7x and PE of
14x). Key catalysts include a strong 1Q reporting season, positive macro data
points and favourable liquidity conditions domestically.
 Three policy considerations that may impact
The government has been concerned about asset inflation and has come up with
some measures to counter this. The productivity focus suggests slower long-term
growth, with more sustainability. The government is also focused on energy
efficiency, by encouraging greater use of public transport and infrastructure.
 Bullish on banks, commodities and high dividend plays
We are positive on banks (OCBC and UOB) for their earnings momentum in FY10
on lower credit charges. We favour Wilmar and Noble given strong demand for
commodities in Asia and as inflation hedges. We are also positive on high-yield
plays with reasonable valuations and growth prospects such as ST Engineering,
Singapore Airport Terminals (SATS) and Fraser and Neave.
 Bearish on property and gaming
We are cautious towards the property sector given the policy risks (monetary
tightening and more administrative measures for the property sector) and prefer
exposure to the office market via the office REITs. Sell CityDev, Buy CCT and
K-REIT. We are negative towards Genting Singapore and CDL H-REIT given what
look to be overly optimistic expectations.
 Macro risks less of impact on Singapore
The impact of the macro global risks on Singapore is less pronounced due to
Singapore’s sound fiscal position.

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关键词：投资策略报告 证券市场 投资策略 市场投资 策略报告 投资 证券 新加坡

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