2010年4月韩国纺织服装行业研究报告

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【出版时间及名称】：2010年4月韩国纺织服装行业研究报告
        【作者】：Korea Investment
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：25
        【目录或简介】：
When spring blooms
Maintain Overweight
We maintain Overweight on the textiles & apparel sector based on the
following. 1) We expect a steady recovery of apparel consumption in 2010.
2) Some fashion brands are seeking mid to long-term growth momentum on
their own to respond to low growth and heated competition domestically. 3)
The valuation is still attractive. Recently, most fashion stocks have plunged
15-20% from their previous peaks and their valuation gap with the market
has widened. The share corrections offer a good entry point considering
stable fundamentals and improving business environment.
Apparel consumption continues to grow in 2010
Domestic apparel consumption turned to growth in 3Q09 and the pace has
held up so far. Department/discount store apparel consumption keeps
improving as well. We expect apparel consumption to grow 6.6% YoY in
2010F from 3.1% YoY in 2009 thanks to abundant pent-up demand. Given
the improving consumer sentiment and continuous upward revisions to
private consumption that closely correlates with apparel consumption, we
believe spending on apparel will stay solid in 2H10.
Korean fashion brands strive to seek growth momentum
Major changes being detected in consumption patterns are polarization and
greater inclination to efficiency. Korean fashion companies are capitalizing
on the changing consumption patterns as an opportunity to overcome low
growth and fierce competition domestically. Some deep-pocketed large
fashion plays are expanding their import business and stepping up the
introduction of licensed brands. Others are tapping overseas markets to
overcome the low growth here.
Robust 1Q10 earnings
An earnings surprise is unlikely for major fashion companies in 1Q10 as
sales growth slowed due to the cold snap in March. But pure domestic
demand-dependent fashion plays should deliver robust earnings on the
back of: 1) a low base of comparison, 2) stable consumer sentiment, and 3)
the realization of pent-up demand. We estimate the combined sales and
operating profit of four fashion companies in the KIS Universe coverage –
Handsome, LG Fashion, Youngone Corporation and The Basic House – to
grow 9.3% YoY and 14.1% YoY, respectively, in 1Q10F. In particular,
operating profits at Handsome and LG Fashion are pegged to jump
approximately 20%.
LG Fashion and Handsome are top picks
We present Handsome and LG Fashion as the top picks. Both companies
will benefit the most when domestic apparel consumption picks up.
Moreover, they have been sidelined from the recent market rally despite
their robust earnings momentum for 2010. LG Fashion is swiftly responding
to the business environment changes by diversifying its apparel portfolio
and distribution channels. Handsome will likely have a tighter grip on the
high-end market thanks to its loyal customer base and more focused import
business. We maintain BUY and our price target of W37,000 for LG Fashion
(2010F PER of 11.3x) and W23,000 for Handsome (2010F PER of 9x).

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