2010年4月以色列银行业研究报告

相似文件 换一批

是 否 +2 论坛币

k人 参与回答

经管之家送您一份

应届毕业生专属福利!

求职就业群

赵安豆老师微信：zhaoandou666

经管之家联合CDA

送您一个全额奖学金名额~ !

立即领取

感谢您参与论坛问题回答

经管之家送您两个论坛币！

+2 论坛币

【出版时间及名称】：2010年4月以色列银行业研究报告
        【作者】：德意志银行
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：31
        【目录或简介】：
Hapoalim downgraded to Hold; Leumi our top sector pick
In this report, we compare Leumi and Hapoalim across a number of key
parameters such as asset quality, cost efficiency, capital adequacy and investment
strategies. We conclude that the financial crisis and its aftermath has accentuated
the differences between the two banks, with Leumi displaying clear leadership.
This will lead to higher returns and justifies a premium valuation in our view - we
highlight Leumi as our top sector pick. We downgrade Hapoalim to Hold, since we
view the stock as fairly valued and its new strategic plan as a multi-year process.
Deutsche Bank AG/London
All prices are those current at the end of the previous trading session unless otherwise indicated. Prices are sourced from local
exchanges via Reuters, Bloomberg and other vendors. Data is sourced from Deutsche Bank and subject companies. Deutsche
Bank does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. Thus, investors should be aware that the firm
may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single
factor in making their investment decision. DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS ARE LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1.
MICA(P) 106/05/2009
Recommendation Change
Top picks
Bank Leumi (LUMI.TA),ILS17.15 Buy
Companies featured
Bank Leumi (LUMI.TA),ILS17.15 Buy
2009A 2010E 2011E
DB EPS (ILS) 1.35 1.55 2.01
P/E (x) 12.9 11.1 8.5
P/B (x) 1.2 1.1 1.0
Israel Discount Bank (DSCT.TA),ILS8.28 Buy
2009A 2010E 2011E
DB EPS (ILS) 0.96 0.92 1.12
P/E (x) 9.4 9.0 7.4
P/B (x) 0.9 0.7 0.7
Mizrahi Tefahot Bank (MZTF.TA),ILS35.20 Hold
2009A 2010E 2011E
DB EPS (ILS) 2.91 3.28 3.86
P/E (x) 12.0 10.7 9.1
P/B (x) 1.2 1.1 1.1
Bank Hapoalim (POLI.TA),ILS16.46 Hold
2009A 2010E 2011E
DB EPS (ILS) 0.98 1.64 2.04
P/E (x) 16.9 10.0 8.1
P/B (x) 1.1 1.0 0.9
This report changes the rating for Bank
Hapoalim. Please see the text at left and pp.
2, 19, and 23 for details.
Global Markets Research Company
Higher asset quality, lower provisions going forward
Leumi’s credit portfolio has a balanced distribution by segment following rapid
growth in retail and commercial credit, whereas Hapoalim is still corporateoriented.
As a result, NPLs at Leumi are very low at 0.9% of loans (vs 1.8% at
Hapoalim) and its problematic debt declined in 2009. Coverage ratios at Leumi are
extremely high with NPLs 6x and problematic debt 42% covered. A track record of
conservative provisioning led to recoveries rising in 2009 – a trend we expect to
continue. As the economy recovers, credit quality improves and recoveries
increase further, we expect provisioning at Leumi to reach lower levels than
Hapoalim, where recoveries have been on a downward trend.
ROE outlook sensitive to capital adequacy
With adoption of Basel II, Leumi has set a core tier 1 target of 8-8.5%, versus
Hapoalim’s new target of 7-7.5%. While both banks likely received tacit regulatory
approval, we believe Hapoalim may need to revise its target CT1 upwards given
similar systematic risk levels and new Basel III proposals. This would imply that
Hapoalim will have to defer dividends to 2011 to accumulate capital, and struggle
to achieve ROE above 12% i.e. the lower end of its ‘low to mid-teens’ guidance.
We expect Leumi to return to dividend distribution based on FY10 results (4.5%
dividend yield) and estimate long-term ROE of 12.5%.
Earnings to improve
The outlook for 2010-12e is for improved results and earnings growth driven
mainly by falling provisions and improving NIMs as rates rise and deposit spreads
return. Both banks aim to control costs, with Leumi targeting 50-55% C/I and
Hapoalim 55%. We expect cost control rather than reduction and forecast C/I in
the 55-60% range, with more potential for efficiencies at Hapoalim (mainly in nonsalary
costs). We see 2010 as a recovery year for Hapoalim, with ROE to return to
double digit levels, with earnings at Leumi to increase 13% aided by its equity
basis holdings. We forecast CAGR 2011-12e earnings growth of 20% at Leumi
and 17% at Hapoalim, with Leumi reaching 13.0% ROE and Hapoalim 11.9%.
Valuation and risks
The Israeli banks (+114% YoY) have outperformed global (+95%) and European
(+55%) peers. We viewing the current valuation discount to peers as reasonable
given low structural ROEs and limited local growth potential. We use a two-stage
GGM to value the Israeli banks, basing our TPs on a discounted terminal value
(p.17 for detail). Key sector risks include heightened competition in retail,
regulatory pressure to maintain high capital levels, impact of rate rises on NIMs,
and the pace of economic growth that impacts both asset growth and quality. See
pp. 18-19, 21-27.

扫码加我 拉你入群

请注明：姓名-公司-职位

以便审核进群资格，未注明则拒绝

分享0 收藏0 回帖

关键词：行业研究报告 研究报告 行业研究 以色列 银行业 研究报告 银行业 以色列