2010年4月新加坡证券市场投资策略报告

相似文件 换一批

是 否 +2 论坛币

k人 参与回答

经管之家送您一份

应届毕业生专属福利!

求职就业群

赵安豆老师微信：zhaoandou666

经管之家联合CDA

送您一个全额奖学金名额~ !

立即领取

感谢您参与论坛问题回答

经管之家送您两个论坛币！

+2 论坛币

【出版时间及名称】：2010年4月新加坡证券市场投资策略报告
        【作者】：德意志银行
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：40
        【目录或简介】：

Re-rating slows on normalizing GDP growth; government policies neutral
Deutsche Bank economists expect 2010 GDP growth to exceed 9% (the biggest
swing since 1999) after a strong 1Q which saw GDP grow 32% (saar qoq). After
hitting 13% in 1Q, yoy growth is likely to moderate in 2Q. The MAS has recentered
the exchange-rate policy band, and shifted to a modest and gradual
appreciation stance. This would be positive for domestic assets. While
expansionary, the focus of the 2010 budget was long term in nature, similar to the
focus of the Economic Strategies Committee (ESC). The ESC’s focus on driving
productivity and developing the SME sector is likely to be positive in the long term
only. Government policy has turned more restrictive on the property market to
prevent a bubble and could cap residential developers.
Corporate activity, acquisitions, EPS upgrades should drive outperformance
Singapore Inc is back in acquisition mode. Balance sheets are well capitalized after
cash calls last year, debt issuance has increased strongly and spreads have
narrowed again. Moderating growth in 2H could mean opportunities for Singapore
companies to acquire assets at accretive levels. We expect earnings momentum
to remain positive in the upcoming 1Q reporting season (in 4Q, 50% of companies
beat forecasts). The historical relationship between the swing in GDP and market
earnings suggests upside to our 15% FY10E market EPS growth estimate.
Market valuations modest; a gradual re-rating sustainable
During past recovery cycles, the re-rating of equity markets has typically slowed as
GDP growth starts to moderate. However, we do not expect a contraction like in
2000, but a scenario closer to 2004, in which growth slows but remains healthy.
Market valuations are modest at 15.5x FY10E and 13.9x FY11E PER (14.3x FY10E
on the FSSTI), especially with an upward bias to earnings. The risk to book values
has again shifted to the upside as market P/B of 1.9x is also at the mid-range of its
historical band. Our Singapore market target on the MSCI of 1,855 (12.2%
potential upside) is unchanged, and this implies 3,321 on the STI (11.6% upside).
Stock-picking market: focus on EPS momentum, corporate developments
We expect outperformance for the next two quarters to be driven by a
combination of 1) earnings upgrades, 2) corporate action such as acquisitions and
spin-offs, and 3) further rotation into laggards. Our DB10 portfolio comprises
transportation, for strong earnings momentum; companies with dry powder to
acquire, such as the conglomerates; and banks, which remain at reasonable
valuations. We prefer office landlords to residential players due to rising policy
risk. Top picks: Keppel Corp, Singapore Airlines, and Fraser & Neave.

Table of Contents
Top picks, macro data, consensus data sheet ..........................................................................3
Recovery peaking; corporate activity drives re-rating ................... 6
Strong 1Q growth; momentum normalizing from 2Q ...............................................................6
Expansionary budget; ESC provides long-term growth blueprint..............................................8
Government tightening policy toward property market ..........................................................10
Earnings momentum still positive...........................................................................................12
Cashed up; credit market reviving; better opportunities ahead?.............................................13
Market valuations and growth.................................................................................................15
Risks ......................................................................................................................................21
Sector views .................................................................................... 22
Banks: Overweight..................................................................................................................22
Property developers: Overweight ...........................................................................................24
Real Estate Investment Trusts: Neutral...................................................................................25
Container shipping: Neutral.....................................................................................................26
Aviation: Overweight ..............................................................................................................27
Land transport: Neutral ...........................................................................................................28
Healthcare: Neutral .................................................................................................................29
Conglomerates/Offshore and Marine: Overweight .................................................................30
Commodities: Overweight......................................................................................................31
Telecommunications: Neutral .................................................................................................32
Deutsche Bank macroeconomic view............................................ 33
Macroeconomic view .............................................................................................................33
Appendix A – Growth...................................................................... 34
Appendix B – Value ......................................................................... 35
Appendix C – Risks .......................................................................... 36
Appendix D – MSCI Singapore ....................................................... 37

扫码加我 拉你入群

请注明：姓名-公司-职位

以便审核进群资格，未注明则拒绝

分享0 收藏0 回帖

关键词：投资策略报告 证券市场 投资策略 市场投资 策略报告 投资 证券 新加坡