发布时间： 来源：人大经济论坛

1 论文标题
Estimating the Incidences of the Recent Pension Reform in China: Evidence from 100,000 Manufacturers
2 作者信息
Zhigang Li and Minqin Wu
3 出处和链接
BBVA，Working Pape Number 11/38，23 December 2011
4 摘要
An ongoing reform in China mandates employers to contribute significant amounts to employee
pension funds. The current study estimates the impact of this reform on the wage, employment
and performance of firms using data from over 140,000 medium and large manufacturers in
China during 2004 and 2006. We find that the nominal wages of employees were rigid but their
real wages may have declined due to the pension reform. In addition, we find an interesting
dichotomy in the incidences of pension reform. In localities with high agglomeration levels, firms'
profits declined because the pension burden could not be fully transferred to employees. In less
agglomerated jurisdictions, firms responded positively to pension reform, possibly because local
governments over-subsidized the pension costs as a way to attract investment.