[外行报告] OPPENHEIMER：美国半导体行业研究报告2009年1月 [推广有奖]

That Dog Don't Hunt, So
Why Give Chase?
'09 Capex Not the Only Problem
SUMMARY
Semi cap equip stocks 1) have ripped +60% on avg off the bottom in Nov, and 2)
appear immune to pre-announcements; yet, we contend this is NOT the heralded
inflection point. If -40%-50% Y/Y capex in '09 were the only worry, then we would
obligingly upgrade the group according to the adage, "semi cap equip must be
bought when hated the most." We would even venture to recommend buying the
group in front of est cuts for Q—after all, historically, optimum forward performance
only comes on big est cuts. This scenario, however, assumes expectations/stocks
have factored in the majority of the bad news. In reality, this has not occurred.
Stocks have discounted -40%-50% Y/Y capex, but not the delayed downturn in
semi cap equip co's service/spares biz. Given the stability of service/spares in '08,
this sets up semi cap equip revs to UNDERPERFORM capex in '09. Thus, we are
cutting ests across the board on front-end equip stocks, again, and anticipate better
contrarian opptys 30%-40% lower.
KEY POINTS
n We are lowering '09 ests across the board on increasing confirmation of our
thesis that a delayed downturn in co's service/spares biz will materialize in 1H.
Checks this week suggest that MU is the latest culprit, issuing an internal
directive to cancel annual service contracts with equip vendors, and slash
spares buys.
n Given service/spares was a relatively steady, eddy rev stream in '08, this sets
up semi cap equip revs to UNDERPERFORM capex again in '09. In our
discussions, this has yet to be discounted, and thus is the key reason why we
DO NOT recommend chasing after a perceived inflection point in stocks.
n Do fundamentals even matter? Admittedly, less and less. After all 1) optimum
forward performance for semi cap equip stocks historically occurs on big est
cuts, and 2) semi cap equip %weighting in the SOX index peaks on big INTC
est cuts, in particular. Semi cap equip stocks are early cycle, high beta plays.
n Bottom line, its too early. If we are right on debunking the myth that
maintenance rev is a Rock of Gibraltar for semi cap equip revs, investors will
have an oppty to be contrarian at levels 30%-40% lower. At the real inflection
point, semi cap equip is a highly-correlated, group trade, but we would avoid
KLAC as the stock is closest to its mid-cycle valuation ($25).

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