摩根斯坦利：中国宏观经济研究报告2009年11月-经管之家官网！

Perspective
Besides factors related to aggregate demand, inflation
could also be caused by supply shocks. We address the
extent to which the CPI inflation level and profile shaped
by potential supply shocks is consistent with our
model-based CPI inflation forecasts from a demand-side
perspective
China: Worried About Inflation? Get Money Right
First
We estimate that adjusted M2 growth is much lower than
suggested by the headline M2 rate of 28-29%. Adjusted
M2, together with weak export growth, suggests that the
2000-01 situation – featuring relatively high money
growth but relatively low inflation – is likely to be
repeated in 2010.
China: Recovery on Track, But Not Overheating
The Chinese economy grew 8.9% YoY in real terms in
3Q09, recovering further from 7.9% in 2Q. On a
seasonally-adjusted basis, sequential QoQ growth
slowed, as expected, to 2.3% (+9.6% annualized), from
the very-strong 4.5% in 2Q. Although growth is still
primarily driven by policy-driven capex, recovery in
private sector investment is under way, while export
rebound is imminent.
China: The Virtues of ‘Over-saving': A Post-crisis
Reflection on Chinese Economy
With a strong recovery now underway in China, attention
is increasingly being paid to the potential consequences
of the super-loose monetary and fiscal policies and the
attendant exit strategies. We expect the current policy
stance to remain broadly unchanged towards year-end
and to turn neutral at the start of 2010. Yet, policy
tightening seems unlikely until the middle of 2010.