2010年4月日本宏观经济研究报告-经管之家官网！

【出版时间及名称】：2010年4月日本宏观经济研究报告
【作者】：摩根斯坦利
【文件格式】：pdf
【页数】：69
【目录或简介】：
productivity policies is the acid test for whether Japan can
return to a longer lasting upswing. Such a mix will become
likely only after the July election.
During Deflation, Focus on Real Rates: During deflation,
real interest rates behave oddly. Due to the zero lower
bound on nominal rates, falling GDP that triggers worsened
deflation only raises real rates further. This is the “reverse
correlation zone.” In this zone, GDP growth and real rates
are negatively correlated. A new policy mix is needed to
return Japan to the “normal zone” of positive correlation.
Monetary Regime Change: A return to the Hayami/Fukui
monetary regime (= time-axis with quantitative easing) could
enhance the impact of fiscal support and export growth. This
would help Japan return sustainably to the normal zone.
Productivity Enhancements: Policies to raise productivity
– e.g. corporate tax cuts and structural reforms – would have
two effects. (a) They would raise the marginal productivity of
capital above real interest rates. (b) They would lengthen the
period during which that gap is positive. Growth would be
higher, and last longer, also aiding a sustained return to the
normal zone.
Policy Prospects: The new government has taken some
positive steps in both monetary and productivity policy.
However, there remains much uncertainty on both. A game
theory approach suggests that the right mix will not come
until after the July election. Thereafter, the chances rise.
Appendix: Both graphical and algebraic versions of the
reverse correlation model are presented in the appendix.
Roadmap to Sustainable Recovery: Suggestions from “Reverse Correlation Zone Model”
1. Return to the "time axis"
This requires a commitment from the BoJ to keep policy rates at an extremely low (or zero) level until a certain level in price increase
is sustainably achieved. This method was used by Governors Hayami and Fukui in the 2001-06 period. The method succeeded in
clarifying policy intentions, and thus reducing uncertainty about future policy actions.
However, exit from the first time-axis period was premature in two ways. First, the trigger for exit, a 0% increase of consumer prices
ex-fresh food, was set too low. Second, the standard for "sustainability" was too low. The 2000-base CPI began to exceed 0% YoY
change in November 2005, at 0.1%. The rise accelerated to 0.5% in January data (reported at end February). The BoJ announced its
exit from quantitative easing (QE) on March 9, 2006, reverting to a target of a zero interest rate policy. On March 10, it announced its
"understanding of price stability" to be a range of 0-2%, with a central value of 1%, and switched to the overall CPI (including fresh
food) as the key indicator. BoJ then hiked the overnight call rate to 0.25% on July 14, 2006. The CPI change (both overall and exfresh
food) peaked in August 2006. Given that the CPI began to deteriorate again almost immediately after BoJ shifted back to
rate-targeting, it is clear that the exit from QE was premature. To avoid a repeat in the current episode will require a higher exit trigger
and a definition of CPI that excludes food and energy.
Note: In the "Reverse Correlation Zone" model in this paper, a return to the time axis would require moving the "ZIRP Point" to the right in Exhibit 5.
2. Quantitative Easing
So long as the policy rate remains at its lower bound, quantitative measures are needed to loosen monetary conditions. The easiest
measures for investors and the public to understand would be base money growth or BoJ balance sheet growth. Either could be
implemented by increased monthly bond purchase operations (rimban), BoJ funding of an "equity cross holding wind-down fund,"
unsterilized intervention in the FX market (Note: FX intervention is decided by MoF, not the BoJ), or other measures to increase
funding by more than natural run-offs from the rest of the BoJ balance sheet. Recently, base money growth peaked in March 2009 at
9.2% YoY, and has declined steadily to 2.6% at end-Feb 2010.
With only a time-axis but no QE, there would be no additional monetary stimulus. The economy would remain dependent for stimulus
on fiscal policy (contrary to BoJ demands that the government act more aggressively on fiscal consolidation), growth of net exports, or
natural revival of business investment or consumption.
3. Productivity Enhancing Structural Reforms
Exit from the reverse correlation zone can also be achieved through higher marginal productivity of capital or labor. Policy actions,
even in the short run, can help. Examples include lower corporate taxes, deregulation that allows freer movement of resources (e.g.
agricultural land reform to allow corporate ownership of farm land), corporate governance improvements, enhanced R&D spending,
efficiency incentives in the medical system. Such actions were taken during the Murayama, Hashimoto, Obuchi, Mori, and Koizumi
governments, and helped to lay the foundation for the longest postwar recovery in 2002-07.