2010年4月欧洲化工行业数据库-经管之家官网！

【出版时间及名称】：2010年4月欧洲化工行业数据库
【作者】：德意志银行
【文件格式】：pdf
【页数】：42
【目录或简介】：
Strong Q1 but focus on structural growth and cyclicals with market share
As we flagged last month we expect Q1 results to be the best quarter this year for
many names due to modest customer re-stocking. For the rest of 2010 growing
product price competition (at a time of raw material inflation) alongside a cessation
of re-stocking may more than offset any GDP improvement. While this may end
the "momentum" call in chemicals we still see value in cyclicals that can support
the current strength due to strong market share positions (BASF, Lanxess). We
also like undervalued structural growth (Linde, Syngenta, Symrise, Croda).
Deutsche Bank AG/London
All prices are those current at the end of the previous trading session unless otherwise indicated. Prices are sourced from local
exchanges via Reuters, Bloomberg and other vendors. Data is sourced from Deutsche Bank and subject companies. Deutsche
Bank does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. Thus, investors should be aware that the firm
may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single
factor in making their investment decision. DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS ARE LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1.
MICA(P) 106/05/2009
Market Update
Top picks
Linde (LING.DE),EUR88.34 Buy
BASF (BASF.DE),EUR45.92 Buy
Syngenta (SYNN.VX),CHF292.80 Buy
Lanxess (LXSG.DE),EUR34.12 Buy
Companies featured
Linde (LING.DE),EUR88.34 Buy
2009A 2010E 2011E
DB EPS (EUR) 4.55 6.38 7.62
P/E (x) 14.3 13.8 11.6
EV/EBITDA (x) 7.2 7.5 6.6
BASF (BASF.DE),EUR45.92 Buy
2009A 2010E 2011E
DB EPS (EUR) 3.01 3.80 4.31
P/E (x) 10.5 12.1 10.7
EV/EBITA (x) 12.4 9.4 8.1
Syngenta (SYNN.VX),CHF292.80 Buy
2009A 2010E 2011E
DB EPS (USD) 16.61 19.75 22.53
P/E (x) 13.8 14.1 12.3
EV/EBITA (x) 12.7 11.5 9.9
Lanxess (LXSG.DE),EUR34.12 Buy
2009A 2010E 2011E
DB EPS (EUR) 1.14 2.78 3.72
P/E (x) 16.3 12.3 9.2
EV/EBITA (x) 18.9 11.4 8.3
Regional Sector Performance
0.80
0.90
1.00
1.10
1.20
1.30
M M J S N J M
Euro Chems vs FTSE Eurotop 300 (E)
US Chems vs S&P (US$)
Asia Chems vs Hang Seng (US$)
Regional Sector Performance
Europe 1m 3m 12m
- Absolute 7 2 65
- Relative to MSCI Europe (%) 1 -2 23
US
- Absolute 7 4 41
- Rel to S&P 500 1 -1 -6
Related recent research Date
Fertilizers: Feedback from meetings with fertilizer
consultant
26 Mar 2010
China Chemicals Tour: The growth engine continues
to deliver 24 Mar 2010
UK Chemicals Monthly: Q1 10 set to be strong with
help from modest re- stocking
17 Mar 2010
Global Markets Research Company
Q1 10 may be the best quarter in 2010….
For many sector names Q1 could be the pinnacle of performance in 2010. While
we do not expect subsequent quarters to be sharply weaker we suspect that the
combined impacts of a cessation of the modest re-stocking we have seen in Q1,
likely rising raw material costs alongside some growing competition driving
product pricing risks could all combine to more than offset support from any
recovery in underlying customer demand (GDP). There are some clear exceptions
due to seasonality/weather (such as Akzo Nobel and Syngenta/MA Industries)
but for others Q1 may be the best quarter this year.
…and the “momentum call” is rolling over…
The “momentum call” in the chemicals sector has been strong over the past 12
months as earnings for most companies have sequentially improved through each
of the past 4 quarters. While Q1 10 should show further progression relative to Q4
09, as noted above this may not be the case for Q2 results – this may suggest an
end to this “momentum” call. In addition, we suspect strong Q1 numbers may
not be a major surprise for some market observers given recent sector strength
(although we do expect a further round of consensus upgrades for many names).
The temptation therefore is to turn negative on the whole sector on the back of
this but we fear this may be too simplistic given the very varied nature of the
chemical sector components.
…but we still focus on those cyclicals with strong market share positions
Within the cyclical names we focus strongly on market share positions as these
are the names that should be able to offset rising raw material costs through price
increases and also continue to deliver margin expansion. We continue to
recommend BASF and Lanxess as ways to further improve cyclical exposure (and
also note that both have structural growth potential within their businesses) due to
their generally high market share positions. We continue to remain more cautious
on those with weaker market share positions such as Clariant, Solvay, Arkema
and Rhodia, particularly where valuations appear more stretched.
Sector summary & risks: Top picks Linde, BASF, Syngenta and Lanxess
Sector valuation is becoming more challenging so we remain selective on which
names to own. We prefer not to apply a top-down approach due to the vast
differences within the sector. We favour “cyclicals” with strong market share and
other drivers and/or undervalued structural growth stories. BASF and Lanxess are
our preferred ways to gain cyclical exposure while we also favour Linde,
Syngenta and Symrise. Croda remains our top UK pick. We value the sector
using DCF and/or SOTP. Sector risks include FX, GDP and oil. (See pg 38 for more
Table of Contents
Volume, price and EPS trends.......................................................... 3
Stock performance: Europe .............................................................. 4
Stock performance: US ..................................................................... 5
Stock performance: Asia................................................................... 6
Sub-sector comparison..................................................................... 7
Industrial gases data ......................................................................... 8
Agrochemicals update ...................................................................... 9
Petrochemicals update ................................................................... 12
Industry inventory data................................................................... 20
Survey indicators............................................................................. 21
Macro indicators.............................................................................. 22
Company FX exposure .................................................................... 23
Raw materials sensitivity................................................................ 24
Cost cutting initiatives .................................................................... 25
Valuation data.................................................................................. 28
Global sector valuation................................................................... 29
Historical valuation P/E charts ....................................................... 31
Calendar ........................................................................................... 37