渣打银行 - 128页 2011年全球经济研究 英文 Dec 2010

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Size: 4.45MB (PDF)
Page: 128
Table of Contents

Global overview
Uneven recovery, diverging policies ................................. p.5
Strategy
Commodities: Bullish momentum should continue......... p.11
Credit: Middle East credit offers compelling value ........ p.14
FX: A tale of two cities – once again................................ p.17
Rates: Positioning in a highly correlated world ................ p.20
Sovereign risk: Sovereign risk to the fore ...................... p.23
Economies
MAJORS
Canada: Trying to shift focus from the US....................... p.27
Euro area: Stable core, volatile periphery ....................... p.28
Japan: Deleveraging, deflation and demographics ......... p.29
United Kingdom: Battling against spending cuts............ p.30
United States: Recession is over, weak growth is not ... .p.31
ASIA-PACIFIC
Asia: Tackling the problems of success .......................... p.35
Australia: Closer links with emerging Asia...................... p.37
Bangladesh: Bangla-yes!................................................ p.38
China: A year of fighting bubbles .................................... p.40
Hong Kong: Living with rising inflation............................ p.42
India: Support growth momentum with policy.................. p.44
Indonesia: Easy money, tight budget.............................. p.46
Malaysia: Investment to lead the way ............................. p.48
New Zealand: Rebalancing the indebted economy......... p.49
Pakistan: End of the IMF programme ............................. p.50
Philippines: Boom-time challenges ................................ p.51
Singapore: No stagflation ............................................... p.52
South Korea: Currency, exports and real estate............. p.54
Sri Lanka: Rebound gains momentum............................ p.56
Taiwan: Staying on the recovery path ............................. p.57
Thailand: Political wildcard is still in play......................... p.58
Vietnam: Avoiding economic overheating ....................... p.60
SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA
Africa: Return to trend as recovery matures ................... p.63
Angola: Oiling the growth engine .................................... p.65
Botswana: Difficult fiscal adjustment ahead.................... p.66
Cameroon: Rebounding but not taking off....................... p.67
Côte d’Ivoire: Post-electoral rebound ............................. p.68
Gambia: Agri-driven growth............................................. p.69
Ghana: Oil to boost growth .............................................. p.70
Kenya: Renewed confidence........................................... p.72
Nigeria: All about elections.............................................. p.74
Sierra Leone: Recovery underway.................................. p.76
South Africa: Closely watching imbalances.................... p.77
Tanzania: Focus on fiscal revenue .................................. p.79
Uganda: Boost from regional integration ......................... p.80
Zambia: Copper-driven strength...................................... p.81
MIDDLE EAST and NORTH AFRICA
MENA: Recovery to gain traction.....................................p.84
Algeria: Great potential, high frustrations ........................p.86
Bahrain: Making the most of natural resources............... p.87
Egypt: Recovery picking up momentum.......................... p.88
Jordan: New parliament to support reforms .................... p.89
Kuwait: Progress or paralysis?........................................ p.90
Lebanon: Strong growth, political fragility........................p.91
Libya: Inching forwards ................................................... p.92
Morocco: On the right path ............................................ p.93
Oman: Focus on diversification ....................................... p.94
Qatar: After the gas boom ............................................... p.95
Saudi Arabia: Powering ahead on spending................... p.97
Tunisia: Steady growth....................................................p.99
UAE: Emerging from a challenging year ........................ p.100
LATIN AMERICA
Argentina: President Kirchner to make her mark .......... p.104
Brazil: Passing the baton............................................... p.105
Chile: Dealing with appreciation pressures....................p.107
Colombia: Investment grade means fiscal efforts ......... p.108
Mexico: Low rates for long ............................................ p.109
Peru: Presidential elections in April ...............................p.110
Forecast snapshots
FX strategy summary............................................... p.112
Commodities short-term views............................. p.116
Forecasts .................................................................... p.118

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