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1. FED

1) Goodfriend Says Fed Needs More Data Before Increasing Assets

The Federal Reserve should wait to see whether slowdown develops into a more serious contraction and whether disinflation develops into an incipient deflation before starting a third round of quantitative easing, or QE3, according to Marvin Goodfriend, a former Richmond Fed policy adviser.

Retail sales in the U.S. unexpectedly stagnated in August as a lack of employment and limited income growth restrained demand, highlighting the risk the economy will stall. Other recent reports showed payrolls didn’t grow in August and manufacturing expanded at the slowest pace in two years.

2. ECB

1) Britain to Sue ECB Over Planned Restrictions on Clearing Houses

Britain will sue the European Central Bank over plans to prevent some euro-denominated securities from being cleared outside the 17 countries that share the currency, in the first such move by a government.

A change to the ECB’s location policy would force some London-based houses that clear euro-denominated products to relocate to a euro-region country.

2) Swiss Currency Moves Make Life Even Tougher for ECB: Euro Credit

The Swiss National Bank’s move to cap the franc’s strength is complicating European Central Bank efforts to contain the euro region’s debt crisis.

A decline in buyers of Italian and Spanish securities will put pressure on the ECB to buy more of the nations’ bonds and lower their borrowing costs.

Analyst Comment: The SNB’s move may potentially reduce demand for riskier assets such as high-yielding euro-denominated government bonds. In the past, some investors who bought riskier euro assets could hold the franc to mitigate downside risks. But nowadays, the franc can no longer be used as a safe-haven hedge.

3) ECB Lends U.S. Dollars to Two Banks as Markets Tighten (Correct)

The European Central Bank said it will lend dollars to two euro-area banks tomorrow, a sign they are finding it difficult to borrow the U.S. currency in markets.

The premium European banks pay to borrow in dollars through the swaps market is close to the highest level in almost three years.

U.S. funds are cutting their holdings in European banks on concern the institutions may face funding problems as the sovereign-debt crisis escalates.

Analyst Comment: U.S. money-market funds have stopped rolling over dollar loans of European banks. I wouldn’t be surprised if demand increased in the next weeks.

3. RBA

1) Swan Restricts Central Bank in Setting Pay With Autonomy

Australia’s central bank, which pays its governor more than Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke and European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet combined, will for the first time lose its sole power to set compensation for its board and executives, Treasurer Wayne Swan said.

4. ECO

1) Sarkozy, Merkel Say Greece’s Future Is to Remain in Euro Region

French President Nicolas Sarkozy and German Chancellor Angela Merkel said they are “convinced” Greece will stay in the euro area as they faced international calls to step up efforts in fighting the region’s debt crisis.

The euro rose after the leaders of Europe’s two biggest economies issued a statement yesterday following a telephone conversation with Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou. Papandreou committed to meet deficit-reduction targets demanded as a condition for an international bailout.

European governments are aiming to ratify a July 21 agreement to bolster the euro region’s bailout fund and extend a second rescue to Greece. Investor skittishness over the spread of the debt crisis has raised banks’ funding costs and roiled markets worldwide.

Analyst Comment: The remarks were a good thing. They’re just words at this point, but that’s why we’re seeing the euro pop against the dollar.

2) Bill Ackman Bets Hong Kong Will Let the Dollar Appreciate

William Ackman, founder of hedge fund Pershing Square Capital Management LP, said he’s placed a wager that would profit if Hong Kong allows its currency to appreciate against the dollar.

“It’s a small trade, but if it’s successful, it will be our most profitable,” said Ackman.

3) U.S. Economy: Retail Sales Stall on Lack of Job Growth

Retail sales in the U.S. unexpectedly stagnated in August as a lack of employment and limited income growth restrained demand, highlighting the risk the economy will stall.

Signs inflation is limited may make it easier for Fed officials to ease monetary policy further if they deem it necessary. The producer price index was unchanged after a 0.2 percent increase in July, the Labor Department said. The core measure of wholesale prices rose 0.1 percent.

Analyst Comment: Consumers are being more cautious given all the economic headwinds. Policy makers have to be focused on growth because growth seems to have come close to stalling in August.”

4) Euro Bonds Won’t Cure What Ails Europe: Kotz, Krahnen and Leuz

These securities are a bad idea not because they would provide transfers to weaker member states, as is often pointed out, but because the transfers would be neither transparent nor controllable. Indeed, euro bonds would cement Europe’s structural problems.

Any lasting solution must clearly distinguish between illiquidity, insolvency and structural deficiencies, and should address each in a transparent manner, considering the political processes involved. By contrast, the euro bond proposals fail to differentiate between these issues and, as a result, hurt transparency and incentives.

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5. FRX

1) N.Z. Delays Rate Rise During Global Slowdown, Weakening Currency

New Zealand’s central bank left interest rates unchanged at 2.5 percentand signaled no urgency to raise them until the global recovery strengthens, weakening the local currency it called overvalued.

“The exchange rate is significantly penalizing some activity in the traded sector, hurting some New Zealand firms and that’s a medium-term effect not a short-term effect,” Governor Alan Bollard said, citing a risk that the global economy will slow “sharply.”

New Zealand’s currency, the best performer among 16 major counterparts tracked by Bloomberg, fell after the statement as investors reduced bets on a rate rise this year. The currency has strengthened because New Zealand’s economy has outperformed others in the developed world.

Analyst Comment: The kiwi has moved down as a knee-jerk response to the statement which was a little more dovish than expected. The RBNZ has dropped its rates track and is now closer to what swaps markets were pricing. Swaps had already priced in a rather dire global situation. We do not expect global financial markets to return to calm for many months.


2) Euro Holds Advance on CPI Data and Region’s Support for Greece

The euro held yesterday’s advance against the dollar before a report forecast to show consumer prices in Europe rose in August, adding to signs the central bank may be reluctant to lower interest rates.

The dollar held three days of declines against the yen before economic data that may indicate a slowdown in the world’s largest economy.

Australia’s dollar held a five-day drop versus the yen before U.S. reports that are forecast to show manufacturing in the world’s largest economy is faltering, curbing demand for currencies linked to global growth.

Analyst Comment: In the short term, the euro may get a little bit of a bounce. The comments from France and Germany are euro supportive.


3) Currency ‘Ugly Contest’ Signals Euro to Weaken: Chart of the Day

The euro may win the “ugly contest” and drop against the dollar, as Europe’s debt crisis makes the region more likely to fall into an economic recession than the U.S., according to Westpac Banking Corp.

The ECB cut its 2011 growth forecast to 1.6 percent from 1.9 percent, and for 2012 to 1.3 percent from 1.7 percent at this month’s meeting.

Analyst Comment: From a relative growth perspective, the U.S. will have more momentum than Europe. It is an ugly contest and the U.S. dollar was winning it for much of this year, but the momentum has definitely swung back in euro’s favor.


6. Stock Market

1) Asia Stocks Rise as Germany, France Say Greece to Remain in Euro

Asian stocks climbed, with the regional benchmark index rebounding from its lowest in more than a year, after French President Nicolas Sarkozy and German Chancellor Angela Merkel said Greece will stay in the euro area.

Japanese and Australian stock futures advanced as well.

Analyst Comment: It’s a relief rally. There was a concern that France and Germany would one- sidedly blame Greece and show no support, but the situation on Greece was not as bad as expected.

Germany and France’s commitment to continue supporting Greece’s European Union membership diminishes the likelihood that it will be allowed to default. If Greece avoids default, it lessens any flow-on impact through the global banking system, which in turn is positive for Asian stocks.

Despite the comments from the French and German leaders, Europe still has a lot of issues to work through that will impact markets over coming months.


7. Commodity

1) Oil Near 2-Day Low on Rising Fuel Stockpiles, European Outlook

Oil traded near a two-day low in New York as signals that U.S. fuel demand is weakening countered optimism that European leaders will step up efforts to resolve the region’s sovereign debt crisis.

Gasoline stockpiles rose 1.94 million barrels last week, the biggest gain since June. Supplies of distillate fuel, a category that includes heating oil and diesel, increased to the highest level since February.


2) Gold May Advance as European Sovereign-Debt Risk Buoys Demand

Gold may advance on concern over Europe’s sovereign-debt crisis even as German and French leaders expressed support for Greece to remain in the euro area and amid speculation China may help the region’s most-indebted nations.

China is willing to buy the bonds of nations hit by the debt crisis, said Zhang Xiaoqiang, a vice chairman of the National Development and Reform Commission.

Analyst Comment: The European situation is a basket case and it isn’t going to resolve itself soon. Europe is getting worse, not getting better. That’s the bigger picture and Greece is most likely going to default on its debt.

8. Credit Market

1) Treasury 30-Year Bonds Gain as Auction Draws Record Low Yield

The Treasury sold $13 billion of 30-year securities at a record low yield as investors bet the Federal Reserve will buy more bonds.

The longest-term U.S. debt advanced for the first time in three days as the auction produced the highest demand since March.

Yields on 30-year bonds dropped six basis points.

Analyst Comment: Everyone is expecting the Fed to take action by purchasing assets out the curve, which is driving buying in the long end.


2) Morgan Stanley CMBS Aids Banks Emptying Books: Credit Markets

Wall Street banks seeking to unload commercial mortgages amassed before Europe’s sovereign crisis deepened and a slowing economy rattled markets are getting a reprieve from rising yields after Morgan Stanley sold bonds yesterday that demonstrated demand for the debt.

Analyst Comment: This momentum certainly would encourage banks, but it takes a few more pricings to demonstrate a trend. It’s a matter of taking a step back to see how things settle before looking to continue lending.


3) Options Signal Lehman-Level Risk for Euro Zone: Chart of the Day

Derivative traders are signaling the fallout for fixed-income markets from the European sovereign debt crisis may be on par with that following the 2008 collapse of Lehman Brothers Holding Inc.

The CHART OF THE DAY shows that the amount of volatility options traders expect for euro debt instruments has surged relative to what is presumed for U.S. interest rates.

Analyst Comment: European interest-rate volatility is skyrocketing. It’s completely the mirror image of what we saw after the fall of Lehman in 2008, but now focusing on the euro zone. People think the European Central Bank has overstretched itself. There are bank funding issues and the overall ongoing situation with Greece.


4) Swaps Show Rate Rises Almost Over as Growth Slows: India Credit

India’s central bank may boost interest rates tomorrow for the 12th time since the beginning of 2010 as trading in derivatives shows policy makers may then pause.

India's economy grew at the slowest pace since 2009 last quarter, and South Korea, Indonesia, the Philippines and Malaysia all held rates when they reviewed them last week.

Analyst Comment: The RBI may not hike even though it is a close call this time. The global situation is also very uncertain, maybe they should wait now and make a more informed judgment later in the year.


5) India Puts Reach Year High Before Central Bank Meeting: Options

Options traders are making the most bearish bets in a year against India, Asia’s worst-performing stock market, before the central bank meets to consider extending a record series of interest-rate increases.

Investor confidence is waning on concern that the Reserve Bank of India’s five rate increases this year may compound the effects of a global economic slowdown on corporate profits. The inflation quickened to the highest level in more than a year in August, maintaining pressure on the central bank to increase borrowing costs further on Sept. 16.

Analyst Comment: Investors are buying puts as rising rates will continue to slow production. Consumption isn’t slowing and that is pushing inflation higher. The situation is moving out of the Reserve Bank of India’s control.