Top New_20110927 AM Part1

是 否 +2 论坛币

k人 参与回答

经管之家送您一份

应届毕业生专属福利!

求职就业群

赵安豆老师微信：zhaoandou666

经管之家联合CDA

送您一个全额奖学金名额~ !

立即领取

感谢您参与论坛问题回答

经管之家送您两个论坛币！

+2 论坛币

1. FED

1) Fed to Purchase Treasuries 13 Times a Month, Sell Six Times

The Federal Reserve said it will buy Treasury securities 13 times a month and sell its holdings of U.S. government debt six times under its plan to lower borrowing costs known as Operation Twist.

The action “should exert downward pressure on longer-term interest rates and help make broader financial conditions more accommodative, thereby supporting a stronger economic recovery,” Fed Governor Sarah Bloom Raskin said today in a speech in Washington, reiterating a point from the FOMC’s statement. The panel cited “significant downside risks to the economic outlook, including strains in global financial markets.”

2) Two Fed Officials Voice Skepticism on Allowing Higher Inflation

Two Federal Reserve policy makers backed the central bank’s record stimulus while signaling they would be skeptical of any plan to tolerate higher inflation as a tool to boost economic growth.

The comments suggest that policy makers, including Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke, would have difficulty agreeing on adopting a specific inflation level as a condition for keeping interest rates near zero. Only Chicago Fed President Charles Evans has publicly supported the idea of allowing price increases faster than 2 percent annually as a way to lower unemployment.

3) Fed’s Bullard Says Long-Term Growth May Be Lower After Bust

St. Louis Federal Reserve President James Bullard said the long-term rate of U.S. economic expansion may be lower than anticipated in part because the house price bubble last decade created unrealistic expectations for growth.

The Fed’s “asset purchase program clearly drove both inflation and inflation expectations higher and closer to the Committee’s implicit target over the last year,” Bullard said to an event hosted by Medley Global Advisors and the Financial Times. Given that actual real economic performance was weaker, “this should have meant less inflation, not more,” he said.

2. Euro zone Crises

1) ECB Said to Consider New Covered-Bond Purchases to Ease Tensions

European Central Bank policy makers are likely to next week debate restarting their covered-bond purchases along with further measures to ease monetary conditions, the reintroduction of 12-month loans to banks will also be discussed at the ECB’s Oct. 6 policy meeting, interest-rate cuts are likely to be discussed, though they are not on the current agenda, a euro-region central bank official said.

With money markets tightening, the official indicated the ECB is more likely to try non-standard measures first before resorting to rate cuts. It wouldn’t make sense to re-widen the rate corridor by cutting the deposit rate without also reducing the benchmark rate, the official said. The ECB raised its key rate twice this year to 1.5 percent.

2) Merkel Shifts Her Stance as Crisis Destroys Taboos: Euro Credit

German Chancellor Angela Merkel has stepped up her defense of the euro and toned down calls to punish Greece for its fiscal sins as the region’s debt crisis spread to Europe’s biggest economies.

Merkel hosts Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou for talks in Berlin today as credit-default swaps show a more than 90 percent chance that Greece won’t meet its debt commitments. By contrast, German swaps signal a less than 10 percent chance that the nation will fail to adhere to its obligations.

3) ECB to Shun Managing Bailout Fund, Halpenny Says: Tom Keene

European Central Bank members will push for politicians to take control and expand the region’s rescue fund to contain its sovereign debt crisis, said Derek Halpenny of Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd.

Policy makers are discussing beefing up the 440 billion- euro ($591 billion) European Financial Stability Facility, seeking a way to prevent the 18-month crisis from spreading as Greece teeters on the brink of default.

“There would be substantial opposition amongst a fairly large number of the council for the ECB to get involved in that way with the EFSF,” London-based Halpenny said. “They’ll be pushing for politicians to take full control of the EFSF and coordinate a larger fund solely through government.”

4) Papandreou Tests Party Backing as Lawmakers Vote on Property Tax

Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou tests the strength of his parliamentary majority today as lawmakers vote on a property tax that is key to persuading the European Union and International Monetary Fund to release an aid installment and avert default.

Greece faces a “moment of truth” and has to fully implement its savings plans in order to qualify for the next installment of international aid, European Commission spokesman Amadeu Altafaj told reporters in Brussels yesterday, and he said that euro-area ministers are unlikely to approve the payment at their Oct. 3 meeting as originally planned. Greece has said it needs the money next month.

Analyst Comment: The parliamentary votes on the required measures will be close. Some Pasok deputies could resign ahead of the crucial voting sessions but the government is expected to secure the parliamentary approval for the necessary laws and the release of the 8 billion-euro ($11 billion) loan.

5) Slovenian Lawmakers Seen Approving EFSF as Debt Crisis Worsens

Slovenia will probably approve a 3.66 billion-euro ($5 billion) contribution to the European Union’s rescue fund, bringing it closer to full passage as the sovereign debt crisis in Europe worsens, economists said.

Lawmakers will vote on the European Financial Stability Facility today, seven days after a government collapse raised concern about a delay.

Analyst Comment: The EFSF bill will be passed, but with probably quite a slim margin. Slovenian politicians are aware of the importance of the vote for Europe and they don’t need further pressure by anybody to make up their mind.

6) Geithner Predicts Europeans Will Step Up Crisis Response

U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy F. Geithner predicted that European governments will step up their response to their region’s debt crisis after a chiding from counterparts around the world.

European Central Bank officials have indicated they will consider expanding liquidity provisions when they meet Oct. 6.

3. Central Banks

1) Weidmann Sees ‘Danger’ of Market Turmoil Damping German Growth

Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann said risks have increased that the market turmoil caused by Europe’s debt crisis will damp German economic growth.

“Most recently, the German economic outlook has been damped by high overall uncertainty, especially regarding further developments in the European sovereign debt crisis,” Weidmann said. “But we expect economic activity to remain robust in the third quarter, and even though expectations for the winter months are subject to considerable risks, this should prove to be more of a soft patch.”

扫码加我 拉你入群

请注明：姓名-公司-职位

以便审核进群资格，未注明则拒绝

分享0 收藏0 回帖

关键词：PART ART NEW Top Expectations government supporting economic interest recovery

2) India’s Inflation ‘Fairly Stubborn,’ RBI Governor Subbarao Says

India’s inflation rate has been “fairly stubborn” and price pressures beyond a threshold are unacceptable, central bank Governor Duvvuri Subbarao said.

The Reserve Bank of India on Sept. 16 extended its record- interest rate increases to tame the fastest inflation among the so-called BRICS economies.

Subbarao today reiterated the upward pressure on prices.


4. ECO

1) Obama Says Jobs Proposal Would ‘Jump Start’ Economic Growth

President Barack Obama said his $447 billion jobs proposal will give the U.S. economy the “jump start” it needs to revive job growth.

He cited forecasts from independent economists that say the plan to cut payroll taxes for workers and employers, spend money on infrastructure repairs and give aid to states to stem teacher layoffs would add as much as 2 percentage points to economic growth next year and 1.9 million jobs.

The president is seeking to revive enthusiasm among his core supporters and draw support from independents as he builds toward his 2012 campaign.


2) South Korea Plans Deficit Cut as Europe Debt Crisis Lingers

South Korea’s government plans to cut its fiscal deficit next year as the European sovereign debt crisis underscored the need for global policy makers to control their borrowing.

Analyst Comment: The European debt crisis shows what will happen if fiscal debt gets out of control. The government wants to improve its fiscal standing rather than boosting the economy through stimulus measures.


3) South Korea Consumer Confidence Stays at Lowest Since March

South Korean consumer confidence remained at the lowest level since March as people braced for a global economic slowdown.

The Bank of Korea left interest rates unchanged for a third straight month in September as the risk of the global recovery stalling outweighed concerns about inflation.


4) Putin Faces ’Unpopular’ Decisions to Overhaul Russia’s Economy

Vladimir Putin will face obstacles that include a growing budget deficit, continued dependence on oil exports and the potential for social discontent as he reclaims Russia’s presidency next year, according to former government officials.

Concern over the global economy and Europe’s sovereign-debt crisis has roiled markets in Russia, which saw its economy contract 7.8 percent in 2009, its worst recession on record. Russia is vulnerable to swings in oil prices and will have to cut spending, including pensions, to bring its budget into line and its dependency on commodity exports, the International Monetary Fund said on Sept. 21.


5. FRX

1) Euro Declines Against Most Peers Before Spain, Italy Sell Bonds

The euro declined versus the majority of its most-traded peers before Italy and Spain sell government bills today amid mounting concern the European Union’s debt crisis is spreading.

Spain will sell 175- and 77-day bills, while Italy is preparing to auction as much as 14.5 billion euros ($19.6 billion) of government debt.

The Dutch prime minister’s comments on the rescue fund were echoed in Germany, where Finance Ministry spokesman Martin Kotthaus said yesterday that the government sees no need to expand the European Financial Stability Facility beyond the 440 billion euros agreed by euro-region leaders on July 21.

Analyst Comment: I’m still bearish on the euro. Europe’s problems haven’t been resolved at all.

Looking ahead into the European session, Spain will be auctioning bills. While this is not expected to be a seminal moment for markets it will remind market practitioners of the challenged issuance environment for the EU periphery.


2) Euro May Fall Toward 2011 Low Against Dollar: Technical Analysis

The euro may fall toward this year’s low versus the dollar should it drop below key levels, Gaitame.com Research Institute Ltd. said, citing trading patterns.

The 17-nation common currency has entered a so-called weekly ichimoku cloud and is likely to first drop to $1.3183, which represents the second leading span-line, or the bottom of the cloud. The euro may then target $1.3047, a 61.8 percent Fibonacci level, should it breach the 50 percent retracement of its advance from a low of $1.1877 reached on June 7, 2010 to a high of $1.4940 seen on May 4 this year.

“If the euro can’t stop falling from those levels, it may lead to further declines. This year’s low of the 1.28 level may come in sight.”


3) Danish Krone Demand Shows Markets Prize Low Debt Over Liquidity

Denmark’s krone is being snapped up by investors looking for low-debt regions as they seek to escape the fiscal crisis threatening to destabilize the euro bloc.

Analyst Comment: Investors are focusing very narrowly on debt as the key indicator now. It’s the opposite situation of the 2008 crisis, when investors moved out of countries with illiquid markets regardless of those countries’ economic strength. This time, they care less about liquidity.

The krone’s strength has forced the central bank to cut rates twice since August, in an effort to weaken the currency. More cuts are likely as monetary easing has so far failed to staunch investor appetite for the krone.


4) Mexican Peso Rises Amid Stock Market Rally; Bond Yields Fall

Mexico’s peso strengthened as the country’s benchmark stock index advanced the most in almost a month and equities in the U.S. rose amid speculation European policy makers will act to calm the region’s debt crisis.

The peso earlier fell after the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago said U.S. economic activity fell in August.

Analyst Comment: At the end of the day it was obviously because of the rise in the stock market. It looks like it took a little while to account for the move in the equities markets.


6. Stock Market

1) Thai Stock Drop Fuels Wage Row as Exporters Urge ‘Common Sense’

The biggest drop in Thailand’s main stock index since 2008 prompted brokerages, fund managers and the bourse to call on Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra’s two-month-old government to alter plans to raise the minimum wage.

Analyst Comment: Concern that Europe’s debt crisis and a weakening U.S. recovery will slow exports, which account for about 60 percent of the economy, have contributed to a sell-off in Thailand’s equities and currency this month. Government plans to boost the minimum wage and purchase rice at guaranteed prices have added to investor uncertainty.

If the minimum wage goes up far quicker than the productivity increase, then of course that will have a negative impact on our profits and on our competitiveness.

2) Emerging Stocks Retreat for a Fourth Day; Brazil Stocks Rebound

Emerging-market stocks dropped for a fourth day, pushing the benchmark index to a two-year low, on concern Europe’s debt crisis will threaten global growth.

Analyst Comment: Volatility is here to stay until Europe comes up with a program that people think is credible. In the meantime, what you’ve got are equity markets that are already cheap and getting cheaper and cheaper. Everyone’s just watching Europe.


3) U.S. Stocks Rise as Dow Average Caps Biggest Gain in One Month

U.S. stocks advanced, giving the Dow Jones Industrial Average its biggest increase in a month, amid speculation that European policy makers will act to prevent the region’s debt crisis from getting worse.

Analyst Comment: The situation in Europe is a near-term risk, but if the global economy muddles through, you’ll probably have room for a rally in stocks. There’s increased speculation that the ECB is going to cut rates. They are also searching for ways to make the existing mechanisms more robust. The market is very focused on that.

Europe will come up with something. I don’t think we’re going into a recession. Now is the time to be bullish, not the time to panic. The lows for the year are in.


4) Asia Stocks Climb, Led by Banks, as Europe Seeks Crisis Solution

Asian stocks rebounded from their lowest level since May 2010 after two days of gains in U.S. equities amid optimism that European leaders may be closer to agreeing ways to tame the region’s credit crisis.

Japanese and Australian stock futures gained as well.

Analyst Comment: There’s no doubt the markets are very oversold. There’s a good potential for a bounce and it then becomes about what follow-through reaction we see from Europe. The real issue is whether it’s a durable bounce or whether it’s a dead cat bounce.

Speculation that Europe may take additional monetary easing measures will likely boost shares. A rebound in stocks will be limited as U.S. employment and other significant economic reports are scheduled to be released next week.


5) Buffett Buyback Shows S&P 500 Passes Berkshire Book Value Test

Warren Buffett’s determination that Berkshire Hathaway Inc. shares are cheap enough to buy back may mean the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index is also a bargain.

Analyst Comment: If he thought the possibilities of a recession were on the horizon, then he’d wait to do this. You can make a number of arguments that on some traditional measures, the market is undervalued.


6) China Banks Shunned by Investors Eying 2003 Low in Credit Bust

The cheapest Chinese bank stocks since 2004 may drop further as the three-year credit boom that created the world’s most profitable lenders shows signs of turning into a bust.

Analyst Comment: China’s economy is very distorted, and the banks, as ever, are at the epicenter of the distortions. If China runs into problems with the banking system, which I think it will, I cannot see a situation in which foreign investors are the main priority of Beijing.


7. Commodity

1) Commodities Drop After U.S. Home Sales Add to Signs of Slowdown

Commodities declined, led by silver and industrial metals, after U.S. home sales added to speculation of slowing growth, curbing raw-material demand.

Analyst Comment: The debt crisis is one thing, but you also have fears that the global economy is slowing down significantly.


2) Gold Futures Recover From Biggest Three-Day Decline Since 1983

Gold futures advanced for the first time in five days as the biggest three-day drop since 1983 encouraged purchases by investors seeking a store of value amid turmoil in global financial markets. Silver futures climbed for the first day in four, trading back above $30 an ounce.

Analyst Comment: The facts haven’t changed. The only thing that changes over time is the perception that the Europeans are doing something about it, that they might come up with some solutions, but they’re not solving the problem. They’re just postponing what will happen in three months or six months or whatever but we will get default.

When the market gets very panicky they sell everything off and they go for cash and treasuries because that’s really the largest market where you can park your money. From a fundamental point of view, the dollar and treasuries are no better than the sovereign debt in Europe. It’s a great opportunity to accumulate more gold and silver.


3) Coffee Rebounds as U.S. Inventories Slump; Sugar, Cocoa Rise

Coffee futures rose the most in five weeks in New York as U.S. inventories extended a slump to the lowest in 11 years. Sugar and cocoa gained.

Analyst Comment: The recent plunge attracted some buying, and the funds have done all the selling they had to do. Low stockpiles at ICE continue to support the market, and producers are not selling.

Rain in Brazil’s coffee belt is expected to be normal by the second week of October. Dry weather has extended longer than usual.


4) Ship Owner Losses Persist on Glut as Mine Profits Boom: Freight

Ship owners may face losses until 2015 even with mining companies poised to increase global iron- ore supplies by almost as much as China imports in a year.

Analyst Comment: It’s really hard for people to grasp the huge number of vessels that are being delivered. In addition to the iron ore that we know is coming, we need an extra half a China, growing from where it was in 2002 to where it is now, to mop up the excess.


5) Indonesia to Halt Tin Exports to Support Prices; Futures Rally

Indonesia, the biggest exporter of tin, plans to halt overseas shipments from Oct. 1 to in a bid to support prices, according to Johan Murod, director at PT Bangka Belitung Timah Sejahtera, a group of smelters. Futures rallied.

Reduced supplies from Indonesia may help to stem a slump in prices that’s been driven by concerns that the world economy may slip into another recession as U.S. growth falters and Europe battles a sovereign-debt crisis. Tin producers faced bankruptcy if prices continued their slump, Murod said on Sept. 24.


6) U.S. Gasoline Supplies Rise as Demand Declines: Energy Markets

U.S. gasoline inventories climbed last week to the highest level in two months as consumption declined with the slowing economy and the end of the summer driving season, a Bloomberg News survey showed.

Analyst Comment: Gasoline demand has been weak and should get weaker now that the driving season has come to an end.

8. Credit Market

1) Treasuries Rise on Speculation Report to Show Home Prices Fell

Treasuries rose, snapping their steepest two-day loss in a month, before an industry report that may show U.S. home prices declined in July.

Analyst Comment: The market needs time to confirm an improvement in economic conditions before yields can rise. The economic figures are mixed.


2) JR East Selling Bonds at Lowest Rate Since 2003: Japan Credit

East Japan Railway Co., which carries more than three times as many passengers as New York’s subway system, is taking advantage of declining government bond yields to borrow at the lowest rate since 2003.


3) Company Spreads Widen at Half the Global Pace: Australia Credit

Relative yields on Australian corporate bonds are rising at half the pace of their global counterparts on prospects the nation’s ties to China will help it weather a global slowdown stemming from Europe’s debt crisis.

Analyst Comment: Australian corporates operate in a strong economy which has avoided recession for over 20 years. Australia’s close geographic and economic ties with emerging economies in Asia such as China, Korea and India have helped insulate our economy from some of the headwinds.


9. US Economic Releases

1) Sales of New U.S. Homes Fell to Six-Month Low in August

Purchases of new houses in the U.S. declined in August to a six-month low as the biggest drop in prices in two years failed to lure buyers away from even less expensive distressed properties.

Foreclosure-driven price decreases for previously owned homes may keep attracting investors away from new properties, rising unemployment and waning consumer confidence also signal the industry that helped precipitate the recession will take time to find its footing.

Analyst Comment: Sales are very weak, and there will be very little improvement over the next couple of months. We expect a step up in distressed home sales, which will put more downward pressure on prices. It’ll be a very slow return to normal.


2) Chicago Fed U.S. National Activity Index for August

Led by declines in production- and employment-related indicators, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index decreased to –0.43 in August from +0.02 in July. A reading below zero indicates below-trend-growth in the national economy and a sign of easing pressures on future inflation.

Production-related indicators made a contribution of +0.01 to the index in August, down from +0.26 in July. Employment-related indicators contributed –0.08 to the index in August, declining from +0.12 in July. The consumption and housing category’s contribution ticked down to –0.35 in August from –0.33 in July. The sales, orders, and inventories category contributed –0.01 to the index in August, up slightly from –0.03 in July.


3) U.S. September Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity

Perceptions of general business conditions worsened in September. The general business activity index remained negative for the fifth month in a row and fell from –11.4 to –14.4; ten percent of manufacturers perceived an increase in activity this month, while one quarter noted a decrease.

COMMENTS FROM SURVEY RESPONDENTS

(1) Primary Metal Manufacturing

Our incoming order rate has dropped significantly. Most of our customers are seeing a downturn in their orders.

(2) Fabricated Metal Product Manufacturing

We began to experience a downturn in June. It has worsened with fourth quarter projections showing continued downward trends. We began decreasing our workforce the last week of August with layoffs continuing during September. Unfortunately, we feel this is an overall trend, as business continues to experience stress and uncertainty.

Our backlog has increased, and there seems to be an increase in activity from our major customers. However, pricing for to-be-awarded contracts has continued to see margin pressure, which results in lower profitability.

(3) Nonmetallic Mineral Product Manufacturing

Housing is expected to remain weak for the foreseeable future. Improvements in consumer confidence will be the key in any business improvement.

(4) Chemical Manufacturing

Most of our new business is generated by activity in the energy fields.

(5) Machinery Manufacturing

The impact of the government suing numerous big banks over risky mortgage securities at the beginning of September is unknown. It could lead to tighter loan requirements for our customers who want to upgrade their equipment or open a new location. The overall impact will most likely be lower business volume over the next year than it would have been without the recent government action.

(6) Computer and Electronic Product Manufacturing

We began the quarter with some softness in computing and some parts of consumer electronics (TV, some gaming). We would have expected order rates and build plans in these areas to increase as original equipment manufacturers prepare for the holiday season.

Although demand is not falling apart, we have not seen the normal strength we would expect. Since the beginning of the quarter, we have seen weakness spread across all segments and regions. One exception is we are seeing Japan bounce back off a very low post-disaster bottom. At the same time, inventories in our distribution channel remains near target levels, and we are not aware of any significant pockets of inventory issues. Our factory starts continue to trend lower to reduce our internal inventory in response to the weakening demand.

(7) Furniture and Related Product Manufacturing

The lack of financing for our customers and our own company has resulted in a declining sales base of dealers. Recent bankruptcies of a few of our dealers have left us in very bad shape.

(8) Food Manufacturing

Increased governmental regulation from all fronts is making manufacturing in the U.S. difficult.

The very high prices of raw materials have hurt us over the last two years. The ethanol program and the cheap dollar have combined to put pressure on prices of agricultural commodities. The high prices of gas and diesel have hurt us and have hurt our employees.