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1. FED

1) Bernanke to Testify to Congressional Panel Oct. 4, Aide Says

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke is scheduled to testify before the Joint Economic Committee of Congress on October 4, according to Al Felzenberg, the committee’s Republican press secretary.

2. Euro zone Crises

1) Italy Debt Rating Lowered by S&P on Weaker Growth Outlook

Italy’s credit rating was cut by Standard & Poor’s on concern that weakening economic growth and a “fragile” government mean the nation won’t be able to reduce the euro-region’s second-largest debt burden.

The rating was lowered to A from A+, with a negative outlook, S&P said in a statement. S&P said Italy’s net general government debt is the highest among A-rated sovereigns, and the company now expects it to peak later and at a higher level than it previously anticipated.

Analyst Comment: It’s a reminder that we’ve had the market in control but policy makers have been slow to think in any forward-looking context. Policy makers across the euro-zone have been well and truly asleep at the wheel for quite a while now and are only taking measures when the market pushes them to it.

2) Greece Loan Talks Will Continue After ‘Productive’ Meeting

Prime Minister George Papandreou’s government will hold another call with its main creditors after a “productive” round of talks aimed at staving off default.

As Papandreou fights investor doubts and domestic opposition, European leaders are squabbling over the terms of the July agreement and the prospect that they will be forced to channel more money to keep Greece in the currency union. U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy F. Geithner said in an interview yesterday that Europe will eventually adopt some of the same measures the U.S. took after the 2008 financial crisis.

3) Merkel Signals She’ll Dodge German Coalition Breakup ‘Disaster’

German Chancellor Angela Merkel said she’ll hold the government together even after her coalition partner defied a call to stop talking down Greece and was flattened in a state election.

Open conflict in Merkel’s three-party alliance has erupted over the euro’s future and financial aid to Greece, stoking speculation that she may end the coalition midway through her second term. As 82 percent of respondents to a poll in this week’s Spiegel magazine said the government’s crisis management is “bad,” the FDP, or liberals, bore the brunt of voter anger.

Analyst Comment: Merkel is still unlikely to call elections before they are scheduled in 2013 or accept the Social Democrats’ offer to switch coalition partners.

4) Ireland Recovers as Greece Sinks in Debt Market Affirming Kenny

The International Monetary Fund, which contributed to Ireland’s 85 billion-euro ($116 billion) rescue package last November, said Sept. 7 that it’s “very impressed” with Kenny’s government efforts to implement its austerity program.

Analyst Comment: Somehow, through luck or brilliant strategy, or some combination of both, Ireland has put clear blue water between it and Greece, primarily by being seen to deliver. I would give the government a minimum of a B-plus grade.

3. ECO

1) Japan Keeps Economic Assessment, Says Economy Is ‘Picking Up’

“The Japanese economy is picking up while difficulties continue to prevail due to the Great East Japan Earthquake, a further slowdown of already less resilient overseas economies in addition to foreign exchange-rate swings are among risks to the outlook”, the government said.

The Cabinet Office cut its evaluation of corporate profits today for the first time since May, saying that earnings have deteriorated. The government upgraded its assessment of housing investment for a second month.

2) Obama ‘Buffett Rule’ for Millionaires Easier Said Than Done

Writing the new “Buffett rule” proposed by President Barack Obama to snare more tax revenue from millionaires will prove to be logistically and mathematically difficult.

Such a rule would be problematical to craft or ineffectual because higher earners aren’t the only taxpayers benefiting from breaks; many middle-income families take advantage of deductions and credits that drive their rates below the 17.4 percent that Buffett pays.

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4. FRX

1) Euro Declines for Third Day After S&P Lowers Italy’s Debt Rating

The euro fell for a third day against the dollar and the yen after Standard & Poor’s lowered Italy’s credit rating, adding to concern Europe’s worsening debt crisis will raise borrowing costs for countries in the region.

The dollar gained against most of its major peers ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee’s two-day gathering.

Analyst Comment: We’re going to see the euro continue to come under pressure. One of the big things we’re very concerned with is what’s going to happen with Italian borrowing costs and this could see some further selling of bonds.


2) USD Sell-Off Unlikely on Operation Twist: Barclays Capital

Barclays Capital expects FOMC to announce Operation Twist, a step that aims to reduce longer-term yields, and therefore the duration of private-sector holdings of government debt, without adding to total amount of central bank liquidity in the economy.

   * Says in note that lower long-term rates may come at the cost of higher short-term rates; therefore, Barclays Capital doubts that there would be any significant sell-off of USD if Operation Twist is announced

   * If something more than Operation Twist is announced, given euro-area peripheral problems, Barclays Capital recommends investors use it as an opportunity to sell EUR/USD

   * Using a version of its “Financial Fair Value” model, Barclays Capital says the importance of longer-term interest rates in explaining EUR/USD has increased, although not to an especially unusual level, and they remain less important than shorter-term moves

   * EUR/USD is down 0.4% at 1.3632 in early Asian trading


3) Brazilian Real Sinks to One-Year Low on Greek Default Concern

Brazil’s real plunged to a one-year low, cementing its status as the worst performer among major currencies this month, as the European debt crisis compounded government measures to weaken the currency.

The real has lost 12 percent this month and 13 percent since July 27, when the government imposed a 1 percent tax on currency derivatives. The real had rallied 49 percent since the end of 2008, making exporters goods more expensive in dollar terms. The currency’s decline accelerated this month after the central bank unexpectedly cut its borrowing costs for the first time in two years while Greece’s struggle to avoid a debt default lowered the prices of Brazil’s commodity exports.

Analyst Comment: It looks very similar to the 2008 financial crisis and the regulation risk amplified the real’s decline, the currency will continue to slump. There’s a concern how an overregulated currency will perform in a risk-off environment.


4) Australian, N.Z. Currencies Decline on European Economy Concern

The Australian and New Zealand dollars slumped against their U.S. counterpart on concern the European economy is stalling, reducing demand for currencies linked to global growth.

Analyst Comment: I’m bearish on the Australian and New Zealand currencies. The euro economy is weakening, clearly, and there’s a good chance that it will slide towards a recession again.


5. Stock Market

1) U.S. Stock-Index Futures Retreat After S&P Cuts Italy’s Credit

U.S. stock futures declined, indicating equities will slump a second straight day, after a Standard & Poor’s downgrade of Italy’s credit rating reinforced concern Europe’s debt crisis is spreading.

Analyst Comment: Italy’s downgrade adds to fears of a domino effect. It’s definitely not good timing especially because of the lack of positive news. That’s enough to make investors nervous.


2) Asian Stocks Drop as Italy Rating Cut Boosts Debt-Crisis Concern

Asian stocks fell, driving a regional benchmark stock index lower for a second day, after Italy’s sovereign credit ratings were cut, intensifying concern a worsening debt crisis in Europe may hurt the earnings of exporters, banks and commodity producers.

Analyst Comment: The Italian downgrade will just renew concerns about sovereign-debt issues spreading from Greece to Italy and Spain. The focus continues to be on making sure Greece has the liquidity to survive. Markets are understanding that there is no easy solution to Europe’s debt crisis.


3) Japanese Stocks Decline on Concern Greece Headed for Default

Japanese stocks fell, driving the Nikkei 225 Stock Average down for the first time in three days, as concern Greece is heading for default and the yen’s gain to near a 10-year high against the euro cut the earnings outlook for exporters.

Analyst Comment: A meeting of Europe’s finance ministers failed to present detailed measures to solve the region’s debt crisis, and the euro is losing its ground again. That’s negative for stocks.


6. Commodity

1) Gold May Rally as Italy Credit-Rating Cut Boosts Haven Demand

Gold may rally from its biggest drop in a week on concern that the European debt crisis is worsening, spurring demand for haven assets including bullion. Gold will probably top $2,000 an ounce by year-end amid surging investor demand, a Bloomberg survey showed.

Analyst Comment: Fundamentally, we continue to believe gold will trade at new highs before year-end. Physical buying makes us believe that a sharp move lower is not impossible but it is unlikely to be long-lived. We are neutral on gold until the funding problems in Europe have been dealt with or until there is more certainty on how the EU plans to deal with Greece.

This is largely a crisis of confidence, and gold is a safe haven. I see little chance of gold falling.


2) Oil Stockpiles Fall to Eight-Month Low in Survey: Energy Markets

U.S. crude oil supplies declined to an eight-month low as refineries cut deliveries with the start of a maintenance cycle, a Bloomberg News survey showed.

Analyst Comment: This is a time of year when refineries cut back on imports because they are performing seasonal maintenance and they don’t want to see their stocks balloon. This trend should run through the end of the year, with only the small, incidental inventory gain over the next few months.


3) Cattle Seen at Record $1.36 a Pound on Culled Herd: Commodities

Texas cattle ranchers, the biggest suppliers in the world’s top beef-producing nation, will cull the most breeding cows ever this year as drought increases feed costs, driving livestock prices to a record.

Global food prices are within 3 percent of the record reached in February, according to a United Nations gauge of 55 commodities. The meat component of the index has more than doubled since 2002 and is up 8.7 percent this year, more than the changes in dairy, cereals, sugar, oils and fats.

Analyst Comment: We’re going to be talking about a historically large reduction in beef-cow numbers. If nothing else changes, that’s tighter supplies and less beef and higher prices.

7. Credit Market

1) Bond Woes to Worsen as Austerity Suffocates Growth: Euro Credit

Borrowing costs may rise even further for Europe’s most indebted nations as slower growth at home combines with a weakening global economy to subvert deficit-reduction plans, measures in the bond market show.

Analyst Comment: The market is afraid of a lack of growth that will make debt rebalancing quite a challenging task. As an investor, if you know that the growth will be lower then it’s definitely a concern in terms of the debt sustainability. You have to balance the risk and the return.


2) Treasury Two-Year Yield Drops to Record After Italy Rating Cut

Treasury two-year yields extended their decline to a record low after Italy’s credit rating was cut by Standard & Poor’s, fueling demand for the relative safety of U.S. debt.

Traders reduced inflation bets on speculation economic growth will slow in Europe and the U.S. The difference between yields on 10-year notes and Treasury Inflation Protected Securities, a gauge of trader expectations for consumer prices over the life of the debt, narrowed to 1.84 percentage points, the least in 11 months.

U.S. builders probably began work on fewer homes in August, highlighting an industry that’s languishing more than two years into the economic recovery, economists said before a report today.

Analyst Comment: Yields can push down further. European officials are failing to resolve the crisis. That will damage the world economy.


3) Bond Cuts Exceed Upgrades on Double-Dip Threat: Credit Markets

For the first time in two years, more U.S. companies are having their credit ratings reduced than lifted as borrowers struggle to improve their balance sheets in a faltering economy.

Confidence that the world’s largest economy can avoid slipping back into recession is waning, driving the extra yield investors demand to own U.S. corporate bonds rather than government debt to the widest level in almost two years. As consumers curb spending with the unemployment rate above 9 percent, profit and revenue growth at S&P 500 companies are set to slow in the current quarter, analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg show.

Analyst Comment: Improvements to creditworthiness have hit a plateau. You’ve hit the end of the runway in terms of how much you can improve your balance sheet without improving sales.


4) AAA Rated France Bonds Riskier Than Thai Debt: Chart of the Day

The cost of protecting Malaysian and Thailand bonds from default shows that traders consider debt of those nations safer investments than AAA-rated France, whose banks are most exposed to a potential default by Greece.

Analyst Comment: This suggests that investors believe that these lower- rated Asian countries are safer than France. Asia offers higher yields and lower risk to investors.

Because Asian nations have been extremely stable throughout this whole crisis, you have to ask the question whether they should be rated a little bit higher. Probably, Thailand and Malaysia could be more highly rated.


5) Swap Rate Jumps as Rupee Decline Fuels Inflation: India Credit

The cost to lock in borrowing costs for a year in India is rising at the fastest pace in two months as the biggest slide in the rupee since 2008 threatens to spoil the central bank’s efforts to cool inflation.

Reserve Bank of India Governor Duvvuri Subbarao boosted the benchmark repurchase rate on Sept. 16 for the 12th time since the start of 2010 after inflation accelerated in August to 9.78 percent, the fastest pace in more than a year. The cost of oil imports for India, the world’s fourth-largest petroleum consumer, climbed to a 34-month high of $11.4 billion in July as the nation’s currency declined, government data show.

Analyst Comment: The rupee’s steep slide wasn’t accounted for and that means inflation management has now become more difficult and complex for the central bank. The RBI’s tightening stance may have to continue for an extended period