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1. FED

1) Euro Crisis Makes Fed Lender of Only Resort as Funding Dries Up

The Federal Reserve, chastised by Congress for lending money to foreign institutions such as the Central Bank of Libya, is once again the lender of last resort for banks around the world it knows little about.

The extended funding comes as the U.S. central bank is already under fire for its unprecedented monetary stimulus.

Analyst Comment: The failure of regulators worldwide to address European banks’ fragile dependence on short-term funding is putting the Fed in a really awkward position. The swaps with Europe are an extremely advantageous political football for critics of the Fed.

2) Fed’s Lockhart Says ‘Operation Twist’ to Have Modest Impact

Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Dennis Lockhart said the Fed program announced last week to buy more long-term securities will probably give no more than a slight boost to the U.S. economy.

“The transmission mechanism for monetary policy remains somewhat impaired, and for this reason I am not expecting large gains from the Fed’s most recent action,” Lockhart said today in a speech in Florida. “It’s realistic to expect modest positive impact from this program.”

Stocks fell for two days last week as investors weren’t persuaded the “maturity extension program,” similar to an action in 1961, would lift growth.

2. Euro zone Crises

1) Papandreou Wins Vote on Property Tax to Meet Rescue Aid Target

Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou won parliamentary backing for a property tax to meet deficit-reduction targets required to avoid default.

President Barack Obama underscored the urgency when he said Sept. 26 that European governments are “trying to take responsible actions, but those actions haven’t been quite as quick as they need to be.”

Greek bonds have tumbled and credit insurance has soared, putting the chance of default at more than 90 percent.

2) Italy, Spain Sell $24 Billion of Debt; Bonds Rise After Sale

Italy and Spain sold 17.7 billion euros ($23.9 billion) of debt and their bonds rose after the sale even as both countries had to pay more to borrow than a month ago.

A euro-area central bank official said yesterday that the ECB is likely to debate restarting covered-bond purchases and may discuss interest-rate cuts to ease funding strains at its Oct. 6 policy meeting.

Analyst Comment: Spain’s auction was a very good result and in the near term, assuming Greece receives its disbursement, we are in for at least a short period of relatively less volatile markets. The yield was a little bit up, but nevertheless the take-up was significant and the yield pick-up not massive.

3) Brazil Prepares for a Greek Default This Week, Valor Says

Brazil’s government is preparing the country for a Greek default as early as this week, Valor Economico reported, citing an unidentified government official.

President Dilma Rousseff and Finance Minister Guido Mantega got back from the U.S. this weekend more pessimistic about the global crisis after meeting with foreign officials and business leaders, and may adopt new economic measures to shield the country if the crisis worsens, according to the newspaper.

3. Central Banks

1) Deflation Woes Stalk ECB’s Monetary-Policy Outlook: Euro Credit

The increasing cost of insuring against deflation in Europe suggests the European Central Bank will need to cut interest rates to prevent an economic slump from exacerbating the region’s debt crisis.

In France, 10-year breakeven rates measuring how much compensation investors demand to protect against rising consumer prices are the lowest in at least eight years. A gauge of what current prices say about inflation in five years’ time, a yardstick used by central bankers, slid to a one-year low.

Analyst Comment: Everyone seems to be worried about a recession. Breakeven rates are falling off the cliff. The market is saying it thinks the ECB should cut rates, and my view is that it should happen as early as next month.

4. ECO

1) Roubini Sees Most Advanced Economies Heading Into Recession

Most advanced economies are lapsing back into recession while the U.S. is already in the throes of an economic contraction, according to Nouriel Roubini, co- founder and chairman of Roubini Global Economics LLC.

“At this point, the issue is not whether there is going to be a recession or a double-dip but whether it’s going to be relatively mild or whether it’s going to be a severe recession and a global financial crisis,” Roubini said. “The answer to that question depends on what’s going to happen in the euro zone and whether they can get their act together.”

2) German consumer confidence to be unchanged in October: poll

German consumer confidence is set to be untouched in October, as households expect steady or even more incomes in coming months due to the country's prosperous labor market, a new poll showed Tuesday.

This means, at least for the time being, that the consumer climate is defying the deepening debt crisis and the threat it could spill over from the financial markets to the real economy.

The Nuremberg-based GfK market research company said that the sub-index indicating consumers' expectation on income jumped 7.5 points to 35.1; however, indicators on consumers' economic expectations and willingness to buy durable goods have declined 8.6 points and 7.2 points respectively in September. The reported added that there is a growing distrust on the government's ability of handling the crisis among consumers, which would negatively affect consumption and domestic demand.

3) Basel Committee Said to Keep Capital-Surcharge Plans for Banks

Global regulators may largely stick to planned capital surcharges of up to 2.5 percent for the world’s biggest banks while adjusting how the levies are calculated, according to three people familiar with the talks.

Analyst Comment: What you can say is, they haven’t so much stood their ground as they haven’t capitulated to the banks. It would have been embarrassing if they had backed down, but we’re still waiting for the last act. They still haven’t told us how they’ll measure the capital or risk or if this will be one-size-fits-all for the banks.

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5. FRX

1) Euro Falls Versus Yen Amid Debt Concerns, Before Confidence Data

The euro slid against the yen, poised for a fifth monthly decline, before a report that may confirm consumer confidence in Europe fell to a two-year low in September.

The euro snapped a three-day gain against the dollar after Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc slashed its forecast for the common currency, citing a possible interest-rate cut. The yen rose against all of its 16 major peers as concern about Europe’s debt crisis boosted haven demand and amid speculation Japan’s exporters are repatriating their overseas earnings before the end of this quarter.

Analyst Comment: Europe is heading towards a recession. You continue to use opportunities to sell the euro into strength because it’s a hope-based rally. Once that hope starts to evaporate, the euro will start to fall again.

Japanese exporters are buying the yen, especially against the euro, heading into the end of quarter. They are selling foreign currencies on rallies.


2) Plunging Won, Real Fueling Inflation Concerns: Chart of the Day

Bond investors are concerned consumer price-gains in South Korea and Brazil may accelerate as plunging currencies boost import costs even amid slowing growth, inflation-linked notes show.

The won’s recent decline will likely add more pressure to import costs, South Korea’s Finance Minister Bahk Jae Wan said on Sept. 19. The authorities will take action to stabilize the currency market, the finance ministry said last week.

Brazil’s central bank will miss its 4.5 percent inflation goal this year, the first time since 2003 it has not met its target, according to a central bank survey of economists released Sept. 26.

Analyst Comment: Sustained currency weakness wouldn’t be ideal given elevated inflation. There is a greater incentive for the Bank of Korea to continue to intervene in the market to maintain currency stability and limit the extent of depreciation.


3) BNP Favors Asia Dollar Bonds as Samsung Asset Avoids Rupiah

The worst slide in Asian currencies in three years is spurring BNP Paribas Investment Partners and Samsung Asset Management Co. to shift funds into the region’s dollar-denominated bonds.

The Bloomberg-JPMorgan Asia Dollar Index lost 3.1 percent since June 30, set for the worst quarter since September 2008, as Europe’s fiscal crisis and a U.S. economic slowdown damped appetite for riskier emerging-market assets.

Analyst Comment: We have reduced everything to zero in the Asian local- currency space and put everything into dollars. This risk aversion will continue in the near term given there’s a lot of uncertainty coming from the euro zone.


4) Currency-Market Breadth May Help Avert Flash Crash, BIS Says

The size and scope of currency markets should help prevent extreme price moves similar to the so-called equity-market flash crash, according to the Bank for International Settlements.

Analyst Comment: Foreign exchange is traded not only as an asset in itself, but also due to underlying global trade and capital flows. This breadth and coverage should help to reduce the likelihood of flash crash-type extreme moves.


6. Stock Market

1) U.S. Stocks Advance, Trimming Gains in Final Hour, on Greece

U.S. stocks rose, with benchmark indexes weathering a final-hour selloff, after Greece made progress in meeting requirements for more international aid and Germany vowed continued support for the country and following a report that some euro-area countries are demanding private creditors take bigger writedowns on their Greek bond holdings.

Analyst Comment: The chorus is getting louder that Europe needs to do something. If we step away from the edge and avoid a recession, then there’s no doubt there’s value there.


2) VIX Traders See Gain Erased as Futures Exceed Average: Options

The biggest three-day rally in a month for the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index is failing to convince U.S. options traders to lower their guard against more losses.

The cost of options to protect against equity-market declines remains elevated even as shares reflect optimism that European leaders will tame the region’s debt crisis. Insurance against 10 percent losses in the S&P 500 has surged to the highest levels since May 2010.

Analyst Comment: Even though there’s some good news coming out of Europe, the problems of the world economic system have not been solved. Until the world economic system is stabilized, and that’s not going to take place overnight, we’re going to see volatility.


3) U.K. Stocks Beat Europe by Most in a Decade: Chart of the Day

Investors in U.K. stocks can be thankful the nation didn’t join the single European currency as London-listed shares avoid the worst of the debt crisis that has engulfed euro-denominated markets.

Analyst Comment: The U.K. is relatively well placed versus euro land, not least because the U.K. has greater policy flexibility. U.K. equities look relatively cheap in the context of long-term earnings estimates.


4) Japanese Stocks Gain for Second Day as Germany Vows Greece Aid

Japanese stocks gained for a second day after Greece made progress in meeting conditions for more aid and Germany vowed to support the debt-laden country.


7. Commodity

1) Coffee Falls in Rout as Starbucks Cup Costs $1.50: Commodities

Farmers from Vietnam to Brazil will supply a record robusta crop in the marketing year that begins next month, extending a slump in coffee futures that spurred Kraft Foods Inc. and J.M. Smucker Co. to cut prices.

Analyst Comment: Vietnam will have a record crop next season and supply will be readily available for roasters, which had to rely on stocks after the country ran out of beans earlier this year. Increased availability will pressure prices, helping ease costs for roasters and consumers.


2) Corn’s Slump Driven by ‘Wrong Reasons’ Amid Shortage, UN Says

A plunge in corn prices may mislead growers that world stockpiles have returned to normal, spurring farmers to cut acreage and exacerbating a deficit of the grain used in foods, fuels and animal feed, the United Nations said.

The medium- term response would be a shortage, so prices will rise.

The corn market is not appropriately pricing in tightness in the U.S, according to Morgan Stanley.

3) Russian Oil to Fall as Tax Spurs Urals Exports: Energy Markets

Russian Urals oil is poised to keep falling after trading at an all-time high relative to its main benchmark grade as tax changes and a new pipeline system boost exports via Baltic Sea ports.

Companies from OAO Rosneft, the nation’s biggest producer, to OAO Lukoil are being encouraged to boost sales through export pipelines under tax breaks designed by Prime Minister Vladimir Putin to stimulate crude production and discoveries while slowing declines from Soviet-era fields. The “60-66” program, starting Oct. 1, also aims to stimulate output of higher-quality diesel and heating oil at the expense of fuel oil. Russia, the world’s largest oil producer, exports about half the 10.27 million barrels it pumps each day.

Analyst Comment: The law will encourage companies to sell more crude abroad and process less crude at home. It’s a very blunt instrument.


4) Oil Surges Most in Four Months on European Debt-Crisis Efforts

Crude oil rose the most in more than four months on speculation European leaders will bolster efforts to contain the region’s sovereign-debt crisis, lessening its impact on the global economy and commodities demand.

Analyst Comment: Suddenly everyone is looking at Europe with rose-tinted glasses. There are a lot of structural issues that have to be worked out. If they fail at just one of them, we could easily come in tomorrow morning with oil below $80.


8. Credit Market

1) Emerging-Nation Bond Rout Reduces Sales by 72%: Credit Markets

Emerging-market companies are selling the fewest bonds in 2 1/2 years as investors drive borrowing costs higher amid a global economic slowdown.

Issuers in developing countries are vulnerable to Europe’s crisis because they borrow three times as much from the region’s banks as from U.S. and Japanese lenders, Bank for International Settlements data show.

Analyst Comment: For emerging-market borrowers, access to international markets is hugely important because they aren’t able to fund on domestic markets in the scale they want. There’s been a massive retreat from risk.


2) U.S. 30-Year Bonds Snap Decline on Recession Concern

Treasury 30-year bonds snapped a three-day decline on speculation European efforts to solve the region’s debt crisis won’t be enough to keep developed economies from falling into a recession.

Most advanced economies are lapsing into recession while the U.S. is already in the throes of a contraction, according to Nouriel Roubini, co-founder and chairman of Roubini Global Economics LLC.


9. US Economic Releases

1) Consumer Confidence Stagnates at Two-Year Low

Confidence among U.S. consumers stagnated in September near a two-year low as the share of households saying it was difficult to find a job climbed to the highest level in almost three decades.

Analyst Comment: Consumers remain very concerned about income, employment and the state of the economy. All of these factors point to even weaker labor market conditions as we get closer to the end of the year.


2) S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices

S&P/Case-Shiller 1 Home Price Indices, the leading measure of U.S. home prices, showed a fourth consecutive month of increases for the 10- and 20-City Composites, with both up 0.9% in July over June.

Related Analysis:

With July’s data we are seeing not only anticipated monthly increases, but some fairly broad improvement in the annual rates of change in home prices. This is still a seasonal period of stronger demand for houses, so monthly price increases are expected and were seen in 17 of the 20 cities.

While we have now seen four consecutive months of generally increasing prices, we do know that we are still far from a sustained recovery. Eighteen of the 20 cities and both Composites are showing that home prices are still below where they were a year ago.

However, if you look at the state of the overall economy and, in particular, the recent large decline in consumer confidence, these combined statistics continue to indicate that the housing market is still bottoming and has not turned around.


3) Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index

Manufacturing activity in the central Atlantic region contracted at a less pronounced rate this month.

Looking at the main components of activity, employment grew at a slightly quicker rate, while shipments exhibited more moderate weakness and new orders slipped further into negative territory. Evidence of diminished weakness was also reflected in most other indicators. District contacts reported that backlogs, capacity utilization, and delivery times remained negative but improved from August’s readings. Manufacturers reported somewhat quicker growth in finished goods inventories.

Looking forward, manufacturers’ assessments of business prospects for the next six months were more optimistic in September. Contacts at more firms anticipated that shipments, new orders, backlogs, and capacity utilization would grow more quickly during the next six months than they expected in August, while growth in capital expenditures would be slower.

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