1. FED
1) U.S. Republicans Urge Bernanke to Refrain From Further Stimulus
Republican lawmakers urged Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke to refrain from additional monetary easing to avoid “further harm” to the U.S. economy, saying Americans have reason to be “skeptical” of his plans.
A Democrat from New York, in a statement today called the letter “a heavyhanded attempt to meddle in the Fed’s independent stewardship of monetary policy” and said it should be “ignored by Chairman Bernanke and the Fed’s policy makers.”
Bernanke has said the Fed has more tools available to stimulate the economy as risks to the U.S. recovery rise and unprecedented easing falls short of fulfilling the Fed’s mandate for full employment.
2) The Twist and Shout Should Be the Fed’s Next Maneuver: View
Markets today are expecting the Federal Reserve to announce Operation Twist, a financial maneuver aimed at rescuing the U.S. recovery.
The idea is to flip the maturities of the Fed’s $1.65 trillion bond portfolio by selling short-term Treasuries and buying longer-term ones. The move would aim to bend down the interest rates charged on home mortgages, car loans and other big-ticket items in the hope of inducing more consumer borrowing and spending, and greater business investment. The Fed may also lower the interest rate it pays banks on the reserves they keep at the central bank, encouraging them to lend rather than hoard the money.
Unfortunately, the twist probably won’t have much effect. The last time the Fed tried something similar -- in 1961, when “The Twist” was actually atop the hit parade -- it managed to lower long-term rates by a mere 0.15 percentage point, economists estimate. In a 2004 paper, Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke himself pooh-poohed the move. Now, with unemployment high, many households still deep in debt and with mortgages tough to get, such a small step is unlikely to generate much spending.
So how can Bernanke make a difference? More aggressive action is a tough sell, given the need to navigate between the minority, but very vocal, camp of Fed policy makers who worry about inflation, and the majority -- including him -- who fear a double-dip recession.
2. Euro zone Crises
1) Greece Makes ‘Good Progress’ in Talks to Get Loan Payment
Greek Finance Minister Evangelos Venizelos made “good progress” in a second round of talks with the European Union and International Monetary Fund aimed at staving off default, the EU said.
Staying in the euro area is an “irreversible and fundamental national choice,” Venizelos said in a statement yesterday. “We acknowledge that our fiscal data and economic structures are a problem for the euro area, which we are determined to tackle once and for all.”
The EU comments suggest the next payment for Greece is likely to be released next month as Prime Minister George Papandreou counters investor doubts that he can avoid default.
2) Italy’s Tremonti to Propose New Reforms to Boost Economy: FT
Italy’s Finance Minister Giulio Tremonti is planning new measures aimed at boosting Italy’s economy following the country’s credit rating downgrade by Standard & Poor’s, FT reports, cites unnamed officials.
The proposals would start with a decree by the end of this month offering the private sector incentives to invest in infrastructure and broadband internet projects, the officials say, according to FT. The projects include building an 8 billion-euro ($11 billion) highway from Rome to Venice along the Adriatic coast and other initiatives aimed at enabling more state asset sales, FT says.
3) Barroso Says Euro Bonds Should Be Preserved as Debt Plan Option
Policy makers battling a European debt crisis shouldn’t rule out issuing joint euro-area bonds and must develop integration tools to make that possible, even if German opposition means it can’t be done immediately, European Commission President Jose Barroso said.
The idea of bonds sold jointly by the euro area’s 17 nations remains alive because unprecedented bailouts by governments and the European Central Bank have failed to stamp out debt concerns that began in Greece almost two years ago and rattled markets. Barroso said the commission, the European Union’s executive branch, would present euro bond options “very soon,” reiterating a previously stated time frame.
4) Chanos Says Europe Stress Tests a ‘Joke,’ Would Short Sell Banks
Jim Chanos, the short seller who runs hedge fund Kynikos Associates LP, said July’s stress tests on European banks were a “joke” and that he’d bet against those lenders if regulators didn’t prohibit it.
“This is so built into the structure of the European economic system that starting down this austerity path, as Greece has found out and Ireland has found out, is not going to increase growth, it’s going to decrease growth,” said Chanos.
Chanos said he sold shares of the European banks short before regulators introduced and extended bans on short-selling in European equity markets last month to stem volatility.
5) Debt Crisis Infects Companies via Bank Loan Costs: Euro Credit
Banks in Spain and Italy are curbing loans and charging customers more as aftershocks from the sovereign debt crisis drive their own borrowing cost higher.
Spanish and Italian government bond yields surged to euro-era records this quarter as Greece struggled to avoid default, driving the cost of insuring against nonpayment by the region’s banks to a record and making it harder for them to sell bonds. As a result, banks such as Banco Santander SA, Spain’s biggest lender, are passing higher funding costs on to their customers.
3. Central Banks
1) Norway May Keep Rates Unchanged on Euro Crisis, Krone Strength
Norway’s central bank will probably keep its benchmark interest rate unchanged for a third consecutive meeting as it guards against Europe’s deepening debt crisis and protects exporters from krone gains.
The International Monetary Fund yesterday cut its growth forecast for the euro area this year to 1.6 percent from a June estimate of 2 percent. Norway will grow 1.7 percent this year, the Washington-based lender predicts.
Analyst Comment: Significantly weaker growth prospects abroad, lower inflation than expected and higher unemployment justify more caution in monetary policy.