德意志银行--香港房地产行业研究报告2008年5月

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2 May 2008
HK Property Developers
Preparing for another uptrend;
5 trades to play
Ken Yeung
Research Analyst
(852) 2203 6163
ken.yeung@db.com
Get positioned before another uptrend in physical prices
We believe HK property prices (residential, office and retail) will revert to an
uptrend in 3-6 months time driven by strong fundamental factors. We prefer
developers with high exposure to HK assets (excluding decentralised office) and
China commercial properties. Our top picks are Kerry Properties, NWD and the
Henderson Land Stub.
Deutsche Bank AG/Hong Kong
All prices are those current at the end of the previous trading session unless otherwise indicated. Prices are sourced from
local exchanges via Reuters, Bloomberg and other vendors. Data is sourced from Deutsche Bank and subject companies.
Deutsche Bank does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. Thus, investors should
be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report.
Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.
Independent, third-party research (IR) on certain companies covered by DBSI's research is available to customers of
DBSI in the United States at no cost. Customers can access this IR at http://gm.db.com, or call 1-877-208-6300 to
request that a copy of the IR be sent to them.
DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS ARE LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1
Sector Strategy
Top picks
New World Dev (0017.HK),HKD20.10 Buy
Kerry Prop (0683.HK),HKD52.75 Buy
Henderson Land Dev. Co. (0012.HK),HKD59.50 Buy
Companies featured
Cheung Kong Hldgs (0001.HK),HKD121.40 Buy
2007A 2008E 2009E
P/E (x) 10.4 23.9 14.6
EV/EBITDA (x) 9.8 12.6 7.9
Price/book (x) 1.5 1.2 1.1
Henderson Land Dev. Co. (0012.HK),HKD59.50 Buy
2007A 2008E 2009E
P/E (x) 15.1 20.9 22.7
EV/EBITDA (x) 21.8 23.9 21.9
Price/book (x) 1.1 1.2 1.1
SHK Properties Ltd (0016.HK),HKD136.50 Buy
2007A 2008E 2009E
P/E (x) 19.3 28.1 23.5
EV/EBITDA (x) 17.5 30.4 18.2
Price/book (x) 1.3 1.7 1.7
New World Dev (0017.HK),HKD20.10 Buy
2007A 2008E 2009E
P/E (x) 24.3 17.3 14.6
EV/EBITDA (x) 19.1 20.8 16.9
Price/book (x) 1.2 1.2 1.2
Sino Land Co (0083.HK),HKD19.70 Hold
2007A 2008E 2009E
P/E (x) 18.4 30.3 17.9
EV/EBITDA (x) 10.7 26.5 13.7
Price/book (x) 1.6 1.8 1.7
Hang Lung Properties (0101.HK),HKD31.70 Hold
2007A 2008E 2009E
P/E (x) 38.5 26.6 24.2
EV/EBITDA (x) 32.9 21.2 18.9
Price/book (x) 2.1 2.3 2.2
Kerry Prop (0683.HK),HKD52.75 Buy
2007A 2008E 2009E
P/E (x) 27.6 25.4 18.6
EV/EBITDA (x) 10.1 22.9 16.5
Price/book (x) 2.0 1.7 1.6
Global Markets Research Company
Property prices to regain momentum in 3-6 months time
We expect Hong Kong residential prices to see a 5-10% pullback for the next 3-6
months due to negative impact of global credit crisis on HK’s economy. However,
we believe the uptrend will resume in late 2008 in view of strong supply/demand
dynamics and expected bottom-out of HK economy in 4Q08. Central office and
retail properties are also expected to see a pickup in rental growth due to an
expected rebound in GDP and retail sales from 4Q08.
Undemanding valuation after seeing a 16% decline in share price YTD
Share prices of HK developers have dropped by 16% YTD and most of them now
trade below their historical average NAV discounts. Historically, property
developers have traded at an average of 14% discount to their NAVs. We believe
the current sector average valuation of 19% discount is cheap in view of an
expected recovery of property market in late 2008.
Our Top Picks – Kerry, NWD and the Henderson Land Stub
We like developers with higher exposure to Hong Kong residential, office (Central
only) and retail segments. We also prefer China commercial properties due to
expected strong growth in rentals with less policy risks involved. Based on
developers’ exposure to these preferred segments and combined with our view of
the relative attractiveness of current valuations, our top picks are Kerry, NWD and
the Henderson Land Stub.
Pair trade ideas
With an expected softening in residential prices near term, some investors may
prefer a hedged exposure. With this in mind, we recommend two pairs (1) Long
New World Dev and Short Sino Land, (2) Long Kerry Prop and Short Hang Lung
due to significant gaps in their valuations and similar nature of their businesses.
Key risks are interest rate, HK economy and supply
The key downside risks to our investment case are 1) stronger-than-expected
impact of US recession, 2) downward revision of Hong Kong and China economic
growth, 3) increase in US and hence HK interest rates and a 4) change in HK
government’s restrictive land supply policy.

Table of Contents
Investment thesis .............................................................................. 3
Outlook ....................................................................................................................................3
Valuation ..................................................................................................................................3
Risks ........................................................................................................................................3
Asset mix: which developer is the best? ......................................... 4
From single-city developers to HK-China property conglomerates...........................................4
Top picks – Kerry, NWD and the Henderson Land Stub ...........................................................6
Pair trades for the next 3-6 months...........................................................................................7
HK residential: a break after strong rally....................................... 10
Residential prices to pullback 5-10% and then resume uptrend.............................................10
Expected recovery in prices after 5-10% correction ...............................................................11
Implications of slowdown in property transaction volume .....................................................11
Implications of recent equity market crash .............................................................................13
Implications of US economic slowdown.................................................................................14
HK office: heading for a soft landing ............................................. 16
Rental growth expected to slow after four-year rally ..............................................................16
Office supply mainly comes from decentralized area .............................................................17
HK retail: slightly outperforms office............................................. 20
Retail rentals correlate strongly with retail sales.....................................................................20
Take-up volume to match supply ............................................................................................21
NAVs and earnings revision ........................................................... 23
NAVs and earnings revision based on our new assumptions .................................................23
Sector valuation............................................................................... 25
Back to attractive level ............................................................................................................25
Sector comparison table .........................................................................................................26
Sensitivity analysis.......................................................................... 27
Sensitivity analysis for changes in property prices..................................................................27
Cheung Kong Hldgs......................................................................... 28
Henderson Land Dev. Co................................................................. 32
SHK Properties Ltd .......................................................................... 35
New World Dev................................................................................ 38
Sino Land Co.................................................................................... 42
Hang Lung Properties...................................................................... 45
Kerry Prop ........................................................................................ 48

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