瑞士信贷：美国石油开采设备行业研究报告2009年1月

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Letting go of the cliff?
EARNINGS
Oilfield Services & Drilling 4Q08 EPS Preview
We expect a generally disappointing season in services. Non-North
America results likely falls below “consensus” – we should see softness in the
North Sea, Russia and Asia. The U.S. may provide a partial offset, at least for
larger caps (the horizontal rig count rose 2% sequentially in 4Q08 even as the
total U.S. rig count fell 5%). Earnings season starts this Friday with SLB.
Mixed bag for drilling stocks. Drillers levered to deepwater and international
markets can deliver in-line to upside results, in our view, while companies
exposed to U.S. GOM shallow water or onshore markets are at risk given
weakening dayrates and activity trends. For international focused drillers, we
see the potential for a favorable variance on opex given the appreciation of the
US dollar relative to foreign currencies in Q4.
Beats and Misses. We suspect covered companies beating consensus include
HAL (on stronger U.S.), FTI (Fx hedging gain), CAM (surface, share
repurchases), and OIS (conservative guidance). Companies missing consensus
may include BHI (lower Q4 export sales), SLB (seismic), DO (lower revenue
recognition from Oilexco, Callon), PTEN (U.S. land) and HERO (U.S. GOM).
Guidance Takeaways. Services likely feel unable to provide EPS guidance
because of the declining NAM outlook; some should continue to offer revenue
guidance for non-NAM. Subsea equipment providers likely continue to guide,
and we suspect conservatively. Drillers are likely to be cautious on jackup and
mid-water floater markets, and more constructive about deepwater and costs
given some signs of abatement in wage inflation.
What We’re Listening For: In the U.S. drilling activities are leading pricing
weakness versus completion; we listen for views if/when pumping/completions
catches up; likely IOC and NOC spending behavior (for 2009 and 2010);
companies’ perceptions of how much cash they can/will generate in the
downturn; updates on any looming sub-letting of rig time; and rig/equipment
cancellation risk in light of persistent credit challenges.
The season likely doesn’t hurt the group; may selectively help. We think
bad news is widely expected. And if beats are simply “backward looking”, then
they should have little impact. But we do suspect the season provides relative
support to SII (it can stress its ability to generate cash, which should ease
concerns regarding its $1B bridge loan) and HAL (earnings beat may seem to
support business model), RIG (earnings stability vs. the peers) and PDE (further
clarity on spinoff of GOM mat rig assets). Underperformers may include WFT
and NE (expected selling pressure related to redomiciliation); but, as mentioned
above, guidance may weigh on names if and as given.

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