花旗：亚洲证券市场投资策略报告2009年5月

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Asia Macro and Strategy Outlook
When it Rains, it Pours
 The sharp rally in Asian assets is accompanied by both a rapid expansion of
domestic liquidity and optimism about Asia prospects “relative” to the rest of the
world. While relative growth optimism about the region is valid — strong fiscal,
bank and household balance sheets are supportive — lingering risks need to be
factored in. A sub-par recovery path in G2 on top of still significant inventory
overhang would stall re-stocking momentum, and China’s investment-driven
growth engine could worsen excess capacity.
 Recent data confirm that economies are bottoming in the region. The growth rate
bottomed in 4Q08, but even for countries still experiencing sharp contraction in
1Q09, like HK, SG and TW, we expect growth to turn sharply positive on a SAAR
basis by 2Q09.
 We remain fundamentally bullish on Asia FX over the medium to longer term.
While we could see a near-term pull-back after a sustained run, we expect the
longer-term appreciation story to remain intact on external flows, further anchored
by CNY’s growing undervaluation as the dollar weakens. Our most aggressive FX
appreciation expectations vs. spot in 12 months are in KRW, IDR and MYR.
 Forces of “inflation” are currently winning over “deflation” – While we don’t
foresee any monetary tightening in the near-term, we remain biased to pay rates
(MY, TW) or steepeners (SG, TH) with the exception of IDR bonds, where we like
being long on improving IDR sentiment, carry and BI accommodation.
 Sovereign credit spreads are now close to or even tighter than pre-Lehman levels,
so we see little value in going outright short protection on Asia CDS. We see more
relative value opportunities with the Indonesia-Philippines CDS spread gap
narrowing to 80-100bps and going long cash to play the negative basis.

By No Means An “Easy” Call 3
Q with A; both the Bull case and Bear case 3
1) China steel stocks have moved a lot in the past 2 months. What
are current multiples and how do they compare to prior recoveries? 3
2) What are stocks prices implying as regards future prices and
demand? 4
3) So, to buy these stocks now, you have to assume a V-shaped
recovery? 5
4) Who benefits most from the stimulus package: long product
producers or flat producers? 5
5) Are we seeing any signs of an inventory build? 6
6) What is the risk to share prices if we see a softening of demand? 7
The Improving State of Steel 9
Non-Steel elements 9
Demand – The Current Thinking 10
Steel Macro Cycle Updates 11
Flat Steel Charts 16
Long Product Charts 18
Valuation & Risks 20
Angang Steel 20
Maanshan Iron and Steel 20
Baoshan Iron & Steel 20
Wuhan Iron And Steel 21
Appendix A-1 22

Citi Key Economic Forecasts 3
Macro Overview: Liquidity-driven rally, or is there
something more? 4
Asian Currencies & Interest Rate Forecasts 13
Country Section:
China 16
Hong Kong 20
India 24
Indonesia 28
Malaysia 32
Pakistan 36
Philippines 40
Singapore 44
South Korea 48
Taiwan 52
Thailand 56
Vietnam 60
Appendix: Sovereign Risk Ratings Summary 64
Recent Publications 65
Asia-Pacific Economics and Market Analysis 66
Appendix A-1 68

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