2010年4月加拿大石油开采设备行业研究报告

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【出版时间及名称】：2010年4月加拿大石油开采设备行业研究报告
        【作者】：加拿大皇家商业银行
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：34
        【目录或简介】：

Oil & Gas Equipment & Services
Offshore Driller Update
Investment Opinion. We are neutral on the offshore drillers as we believe
other oilfield service subsectors will exhibit better supply/demand dynamics
over the next 12 months. Historically, the best time to own the drillers has
been periods leading up to and during significant dayrate improvement. Given
our view of supply/demand, we do not foresee pricing power returning for at
least the next 12 months. That said, there are some positives which should
provide support for the group including an improved macro backdrop (oil at
$80+) and valuations which remain near the low end of historical bands.
Stock Performance. The jackup drillers are significantly outpacing
deepwater and the OSX year-to-date. In addition to some company-specific
catalysts, driving the outperformance of RDC and ESV has been upticks in
jackup utilization (modest internationally; GOM more significant off of low
bases) and the view that downward pressure on pricing has fully abated. This
is in contrast to deepwater where there are concerns regarding utilization and
dayrates as existing contracts roll over and, specifically for the ultradeepwater
segment, as new un-contracted rigs enter the market.
Fundamental Trends. In our view, utilization improvement in the jackup
market will be measured into 2011 as the market needs to absorb existing
equipment that rolls off contract. Similarly, bidding activity to date has been,
for the most part, against incumbent rigs. On the pricing side, the low end of
current ranges seems safe though any sustained/material pricing power is still
a ways off. For deepwater, utilization and dayrates could be choppy over the
next 12 months as the market absorbs rollovers and new equipment. That said,
at $80+ oil, we do not believe downside is as great as some are forecasting.
Valuations. On average, our coverage universe of RIG, DO, NE, ESV and
RDC are trading at 5.8x consensus 2011E EV/EBITDA, which compares to a
historical average of 8.3x and a one-standard deviation band of 5.2x-11.4x.
Going forward, we expect a relatively tight band, or 5.0x-8.0x, until it
becomes evident that dayrates/earnings are nearing a positive inflection point.
NE, DO and ESV kick off 1Q reporting for the offshore drillers this
week. We are in line with the Street for DO and ESV, lower for RIG and NE
and above for RDC. Key focal points will be demand trends, spot rates and
regional commentary including Brazil, Mexico and the North Sea.

Table of Contents
Offshore Drillers Overview
Investment Opinion ........................................................................................................................................................ 3
Valuation ........................................................................................................................................................................ 4
Stock Performance ......................................................................................................................................................... 5
Financial Metrics ............................................................................................................................................................ 6
Positioning ...................................................................................................................................................................... 7
Floating Rig Market
Market Share ................................................................................................................................................................................. 8
Geographic Mix ............................................................................................................................................................................ 9
Contract Coverage .............................................................................................................................................................. 10
Utilization and Supply/Demand .................................................................................................................................... 11-12
Dayrate Trends and Recent Fixtures .............................................................................................................................. 13-14
Stock Performance Relative to Utilization and Dayrates ............................................................................................................. 15
Jackup Rig Market
Market Share ................................................................................................................................................................ 16
Geographic Mix ............................................................................................................................................................ 17
Utilization and Supply/Demand ............................................................................................................................... 18-20
Dayrate Trends and Recent Fixtures ........................................................................................................................ 21-24
High-Spec Rigs............................................................................................................................................................. 25
Stock Performance Relative to Utilization and Dayrates .............................................................................................. 26
Valuation Addendum ............................................................................................................................................................. 27-28
Companies Mentioned ................................................................................................................................................................ 29

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