美国鸡肉行业研究报告2009年3月

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Contents
Chicken Industry .....................................................................................................................................................................................4
Summary and Recommendation ...............................................................................................................................................................4
Industry Investment Thesis........................................................................................................................................................................4
U.S. Food Consumption Is Down Over the Last Six Months ......................................................................................................................5
Chicken Industry Is Heavily Reliant on Foodservice and Export Demand..................................................................................................6
Lower Foodservice Demand Could Be a 1.5% Drag on Chicken Demand in 2009 ....................................................................................8
Higher Prices Seem to Be Driving Consumers Away from Proteins...........................................................................................................9
Lower Export Demand Could Be a 2% Drag on Chicken Demand in 2009 ..............................................................................................11
Supplies Should Come Down an Unprecedented 3% Year-Over-Year in 2009 .......................................................................................12
Supply Cutbacks Should More Than Offset Demand Headwinds in 2009................................................................................................15
High Inventory Levels and Weak Demand Expectations = Flat Year-Over-Year Prices...........................................................................15
Chicken Producers Should See Profits Return to More Normalized Levels .............................................................................................18
Sanderson Farms, Inc. (SAFM-NASDAQ)............................................................................................................................................20
At A Glance .............................................................................................................................................................................................20
Summary and Recommendation .............................................................................................................................................................20
Key Investment Points.............................................................................................................................................................................20
Risks to Our Rating .................................................................................................................................................................................21
Valuation .................................................................................................................................................................................................21
2009 Should Be a Profitable Year for SAFM, but Below Normalized Levels ............................................................................................22
Steady Growth, Indeed............................................................................................................................................................................23
SAFM Is a Low-Cost Producer of Chicken ..............................................................................................................................................24
SAFM Is More Exposed to Slowing Export Market Than Tyson Foods ....................................................................................................27
Strong Balance Sheet and Cash Flow Metrics ........................................................................................................................................28
SAFM Could Earn $3.92 in a Normalized Environment...........................................................................................................................28
Sensitivity to Feed Costs .........................................................................................................................................................................29
Strategic Plant Locations Positioned for Growth .....................................................................................................................................30
Stronger Profit Margin Is Key Driver of SAFM’s Higher ROIC and ROE ..................................................................................................30
Management Profile ................................................................................................................................................................................32
Top Institutional Holders List ...................................................................................................................................................................32
Protein Company Comps ........................................................................................................................................................................33
Financial Statements...............................................................................................................................................................................34
Tyson Foods, Inc. (TSN-NYSE) ............................................................................................................................................................38
At a Glance..............................................................................................................................................................................................38
Summary and Recommendation .............................................................................................................................................................38
Key Investment Points.............................................................................................................................................................................38
Risks to Our Rating .................................................................................................................................................................................39
Valuation .................................................................................................................................................................................................39
TSN Should Return to Profitability in 3Q09 .............................................................................................................................................39
Chicken Profits May Have Found a Bottom, But Low Sales Visibility Underscores Our Cautious Stance................................................41
Pork Processing Profits Seem to Have Peaked in FY08 ..........................................................................................................................48
Expect FY09 Beef Processing EBIT to Be Below Normalized Levels Again ............................................................................................50
Recent Refinancing Activity.....................................................................................................................................................................56
Balance Sheet and Cash Flow Metrics....................................................................................................................................................57
Tyson’s Ownership Structure ..................................................................................................................................................................57
Weak Profit Margin Is Key Driver of TSN’s Lower ROIC and ROE ..........................................................................................................58
Management Profile ................................................................................................................................................................................59
Normalized Earnings ...............................................................................................................................................................................60
Protein Company Comps ........................................................................................................................................................................61
Financial Statements...............................................................................................................................................................................62

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关键词：行业研究报告 研究报告 行业研究 Expectations consumption Investment 研究报告 美国 鸡肉 行业

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