汇丰银行：巴西制糖与乙醇行业研究报告2009年2月

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<p>􀀗 We are initiating coverage of shares of<br/>São Martinho with an Overweight (V)<br/>rating and BRL18.50 target price and<br/>Açúcar Guarani with a Neutral (V) rating<br/>and BRL2.30 target price<br/>􀀗 For Neutral (V)-rated Cosan Limited and<br/>Cosan SA, we are raising our target<br/>prices for CZZ to USD4.50 from USD3.25,<br/>CZLT11 to BRL10.80 from BRL7.65, and<br/>CSAN3 to BRL13.50 from BRL11.40<br/>􀀗 We have a neutral view of the industry,<br/>as global economic weakness could<br/>hurt demand and consumption drivers<br/>The future is not quite here yet<br/>In a perfect world, Brazilian ethanol would dominate the<br/>nascent global renewable-fuel industry. Sugarcane-based<br/>ethanol is relatively cheap to produce and is environmentally<br/>friendly, and Brazil has considerable productive capacity to<br/>supply rapidly growing demand and consumption.<br/>However, the industry is being buffeted by lower sugarcane<br/>yields, recovering sugar prices, tight and expensive credit<br/>markets, low crude oil prices threatening ethanol demand,<br/>tariffs and protectionist trade policies in key US and European<br/>export markets, and the global macroeconomic slowdown.<br/>Yet Brazil’s competitive advantages remain significant: ample<br/>fertile land for sugarcane, a large and growing domestic<br/>ethanol market, and significant expertise with advanced and<br/>environmentally friendly renewable energy technologies.<br/>In the short and medium term, sugar production deficits in<br/>India are potentially a market opportunity for Brazil. For<br/>ethanol, we do not see major short- or medium-term catalysts,<br/>as we expect most export markets to remain difficult to access<br/>and demand for ethanol to diminish in response to the current<br/>price competitiveness of gasoline.<br/>We are long-term optimistic on Brazil’s ethanol industry, as<br/>we expect the global economy to recover, crude oil prices to<br/>increase, and environmental issues to remain critical. Brazil’s<br/>cost-efficient and environmentally friendly ethanol made from<br/>sugarcane could help satisfy world energy needs.</p><p>目录</p><p>Initiating coverage: São<br/>Martinho, Açúcar Guarani 5<br/>Investment summary 9<br/>An update on the world of<br/>sugar and ethanol 13<br/>São Martinho SA 37<br/>Açúcar Guarani SA 50<br/>Cosan SA and Cosan Limited 63<br/>Disclosure appendix 75<br/>Disclaimer 79</p><p></p><p> 297487.pdf (1.31 MB, 需要: 500 个论坛币)

2009-2-25 22:33:00 上传

汇丰银行：巴西制糖与乙醇行业研究报告2009年2月
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500

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