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Contents
Summary & Investment Recommendations i
The Prospect of Growth Returns i
Five Key Themes Influencing the Media Sector iii
1. Generation Y Emerging – Driving Significant Changes in the Canadian Media Landscape iv
2. Technology Drives Power Shift to the Consumer v
3. Media Options Abound – Fine-Tuning Audience Targeting vi
4. Heightened ROI Focus – Turns Up Heat on Broadcasters vii
5. Shareholder Value Initiatives Back on the Table vii
Valuation – Poised for Recovery xiii
Regulatory Watch: Outlook for Regulatory Agenda xvi
Sector M&A – Anticipating Gradual Changes xviii
The Canwest Question xviii
Media Industry – Aiming for a Recovery 5
Canadian Advertising Market Poised for a Gradual Recovery 6
Conventional TV Expected to Remain Under Pressure 9
Specialty TV 13
Solid Consumer Use Drives Advertiser Interest 14
Regulatory – Stable Environment 17
More Rebranding & Asset Swaps on the Horizon 18
Conventional TV – Rethinking the Model 21
Advertising Environment 22
2010 Winter Olympics Impact 22
Program Purchases 24
Minimal Regulatory Relief Leaves the Solution to Industry 26
Radical Restructuring to Reshape Conventional TV 27
Secondary Networks Bear Brunt of Cost Cuts 27
Pay TV – Driven by Digital 29
Content & Digital Transition Drive Pay TV Growth 30
Shift to Digital Set to Boost Revenues 30
Premium Content Advertising Delivers Subscriber Growth 31
Allarco’s Struggles Should Benefit Astral and Corus 32
Radio 33
Anticipating Radio Will Recover from Cyclical Slowdown 34
PPM Rollout Ushers in New Era in Audience Measurement 35
Canadian Radio Significantly Healthier Than U.S. Peers 38
U.S. Radio Market Showing Signs of Saturation 39
Significant Leverage Negatively Impacts U.S. Radio Operators 40
Nearing Saturation Point – Fewer New Stations Coming to Market 41
Challenges Remain for Internet Radio 43
Canadian Radio – Cyclically Depressed, With Some Secular Overhang 43
Canadian Satellite Radio Adoption Trends 45
Daily Newspapers 47
Recession + Secular Pressures = Volatile Combination 48
Canadian Dailies Face a Difficult Road Ahead 48
Decreasing Circulation Reflects Challenging Environment 50
Reshaping the U.S. Newspaper Industry After a Collapse 51
Readers and Advertisers Continue to Migrate Online 56
Community Newspapers 59
Community Papers Reflect Impact of Slowing Economy 60
Revenue Hits Air Pocket on Economic Slowdown 60
Industry in Flux 62
Modest Reduction in Circulation as Usage Remains High 62
Online 63
Online Continues to Draw Share 64
High Broadband Penetration to Support Online Growth in Canada 64
Broadband Infrastructure to Support Growth 65
Significant Demands on Infrastructure 66
Online Remains Stable in Poor Economic Climate 67
Online Video Poised for Prolonged Growth 68
Further Leverage Ahead 68
Mobile Advertising on the Cusp 69
Case Study 71
Score Media Goes Mobile 71
Online Video to Drive Online Ad Growth 72
Hulu Will Support Professional Content 74
Flexibility Drives Consumer Adoption 74
Online Video Is a Threat to Traditional TV 75
Hurdles Remain to Mainstream Adoption of Online Video 75
Potential for Online Video Is Significant 77
Out-of-Home Advertising 81
Out-of-Home Positioned as Stable Sector 82
Astral Deploys Digital Network 82
Consolidated Market Offers Few National Choices 83
Regulatory Pressure Grows in Key Municipalities 84
TSF Creates Opportunities for Astral 85
Leveraging TSF Contract 85
Book Publishing 87
Transitioning Towards Digital 88
Digital Books to Revolutionize Landscape of Publishing 90
Harlequin’s Strengths Shine in Recession 91
Harlequin – Outlook 92
Printing 93
Structural Change Compounds Tough Outlook in Printing 94
Print Industry Continues to Suffer from Overcapacity 94
The Digital Age Has Softened Print Demand 96
Transcontinental – Outlook 97
Directories 99
Directories a Slow Turn 100
Advertising Outlook 100
Competition Moves Online as Print Remains Consolidated 101
Strong Effectiveness Supports Directory Advertising 102
Environmental Pressures Continue for Print Products 103
Focusing New Product Development on Mobile and Online 103
Online Video Remains Key Growth Category 104
Company Profiles
Astral Media Inc. 105
Canwest Global Communications Corporation 113
Corus Entertainment Inc. 117
Grupo Televisa, S.A.B. 125
Thomson Reuters Corporation 133
Torstar Corporation 141
Transcontinental Inc. 149
Yellow Pages Income Fund 157
Appendix 1: Pay TV Offerings in Canada 165
Appendix 2: Pay TV Coverage in Canada 167
Appendix 3: Scotia Capital Media Comparables Analysis 168
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